Iran Update - Israel-Hamas War October 7 to December 31, 2023

Iran Update, December 20, 2023

click here to read the full report with maps

Brian Carter, Annika Ganzeveld, Johanna Moore, Amin Soltani, Kathryn Tyson, Andie Parry, and Alexandra Braverman

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces are transitioning from clearing operations to holding operations in some areas of the northern Gaza Strip.
2. Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi threatened to target US warships in the Red Sea.
3. Israel and Hamas continued negotiations for a new humanitarian pause in fighting in exchange for Israeli hostages being held in the Gaza Strip.
4. PIJ Secretary General Ziad al Nakhalah and a PIJ delegation will travel to Cairo in the coming days to discuss ceasefire negotiations with Egyptian officials.
5. Iranian military leaders view current Hamas operations in the Gaza Strip as the prelude to a long-term war to destroy Israel.
6. Iraqi political parties and coalitions aligned with the Shia Coordination Framework—a loosely aligned coalition of pro-Iranian political parties—have won the most seats in the provincial council elections.
7. Iraqi media claimed on December 20 that unspecified militants attacked US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq

Israeli forces are transitioning from clearing operations to holding operations in some areas of the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli forces in some areas of the northern Gaza Strip, such as Beit Hanoun and the al Shati camp, are beginning to execute tasks analogous to the US military definition of a holding operation. A holding operation “involves disrupting [enemy] activities in an area and providing a good security environment for the population” and “focuses on securing the population.”[1] The Israeli Defense Minister said on December 18 that the IDF is preparing to transition to a “day after” the war and that Israel will begin bringing back the local population in some areas of the strip.[2] The IDF redeployed some of the units responsible for clearing Beit Hanoun and al Shati camp and backfilled them with new units to hold the areas.[3] The backfilling units are continuing lower intensity operations, such as raids against infrastructure and clashing with small cells of Palestinian fighters.[4] The hold phase is defined by a decreased level of violence, but it still requires holding forces to engage and eliminate enemy forces and infrastructure to provide security.[5]

Doctrinally sound holding operations would enable the Israel Defense Forces to protect local Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip and Israeli citizens in southern Israel. Holding operations consist of both offensive and defensive tasks that secure the population and prevent enemy forces from securing terrain.[6] US military doctrine defines the tactical task ”secure“ as efforts to prevent a unit, facility, geographic location, or population from being destroyed or damaged.[7]  Holding forces execute defensive tasks, such as capturing enemy weapons caches and securing terrain.[8] They also conduct offensive operations, including raids against enemy leaders and disruption operations targeting enemy support structures among the population.[9] Holding operations allow the IDF to protect local populations by securing areas in the Gaza Strip against Hamas re-infiltration while protecting Israeli citizens in southern Israel by continuing to dismantle Hamas military infrastructure.

The holding phase is a lengthy transitional period that seeks to create a minimally acceptable security environment to provide space for the creation of a new political order. This phase can take many months. In US doctrine and practice, the holding force will increasingly execute stability tasks and operations—such as restoring essential services and supporting dislocated civilians—as the hold phase continues.[10] Stability tasks and operations during the holding phase help set conditions for the new political order and prevent a collapse of social order.

Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi threatened to target US warships in the Red Sea in a speech on December 20.[11] The United States announced on December 18 that it established a 10-nation combined maritime operation to counter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.[12] Abdulmalik said that the Houthis would attack “US battleships, interests, and navigation” if the United States “escalates further” and targets Yemen or the Houthis.[13] The US Navy no longer operates battleships. Abdulmalik also accused the United States of “militarizing the Red Sea and asked that Arab countries leave the Houthis to respond to a “direct war” with the United States and Israel.[14] Abdulmalik claimed falsely that the Houthis would not target European vessels in the Red Sea as long as the vessels do not go to Israel.[15] The Houthis have repeatedly targeted European vessels that were en route to destinations other than Israel, such as Italy.[16]

The Houthi Supreme Political Council similarly criticized the US-led coalition as a “hostile step aimed at protecting Israel.”[17] The council said that it will hold the United States responsible for anything that comes from the “militarization” of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

The Houthi movement is conducting an information operation that aims to frame any US response to Houthi acts of piracy and terrorism targeting international shipping as an escalation. The Houthi movement is claiming to support the Palestinian cause while criticizing the US-led coalition. The Houthis and Iran are attempting to demonstrate the threat that the Axis of Resistance poses to global shipping and major maritime routes in the Middle East, as CTP-ISW previously assessed.[18] This effort is not specific to the Israel-Hamas war. Tehran has had a long-standing goal to develop the military capabilities and proxies that it requires to disrupt traffic around both the Bab al Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz.[19] In this context, the United States is responding to multiple Houthi acts of piracy and terrorism which aim to disrupt all international trade in the Red Sea, not just to Israel. Several of the vessels that the Houthis have attacked were bound for destinations other than Israel.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian fighters fired at Israeli forces in Beit Hanoun with small arms on December 20. The IDF reported that one Palestinian fighter attempted to conduct a drive-by shooting targeting Israeli reservists in Beit Hanoun on December 20.[20]  Palestinian media also reported armed clashes between Palestinian fighters and the IDF in Beit Hanoun.[21] These attacks are consistent with the doctrinal definition of a holding operation. Enemy fighters frequently attack holding forces during holding operations as the holding force conducts defensive and offensive operations to degrade and destroy the enemy force’s military infrastructure.[22]

The IDF continued clearing operations in Jabalia on December 20. The IDF’s 551st Brigade Combat Team and Nahal Brigade captured Hamas rockets and conducted airstrikes to eliminate Palestinian militia anti-tank team positions.[23] Palestinian fighters also clashed with advancing Israeli forces near al Sikka Road and the Civil Administration Site in Jabalia on December 20, according to Palestinian media.[24]

Palestinian militia fighters continued their efforts to defend against Israeli advances in Jabalia and Shujaiya. The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)--claimed that its fighters detonated an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) targeting an IDF bulldozer and Israeli infantry east of Shujaiya.[25] The Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—attacked IDF units in Tal al Zaatar, near Jabalia refugee camp, on December 20.[26] The group fired rocket-propelled grenades targeting Israeli forces in Shujaiya.[27] The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—used rocket-propelled grenades to attack Israeli armor in eastern Jabalia on December 20.[28]

Palestinian militia fighters conducted attacks behind the forward line of Israeli advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. The al Qassem Brigades attacked an eight-vehicle Israeli convoy in Sabra and Tal al Hawa on December 20.[29] CTP-ISW assesses that the al Qassem Brigades’ Sabra-Tal al Islam (Tal al Hawa) Battalion is degraded, but not combat ineffective.[30] Al Qassem Brigades fighters also detonated anti-personnel improvised explosive devices (IED) targeting Israeli forces in Zaytoun neighborhood, southern Gaza City.[31]

Palestinian fighters continued using sophisticated tactics to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Khan Younis. The al Qassem Brigades detonated IEDs targeting Israeli troops in two separate booby-trapped tunnels northeast and east of Khan Younis on December 20.[32] The group also attacked Israeli armor north and east of Khan Younis using rocket-propelled grenades.[33]

Israeli forces in Khan Younis raided Palestinian militia infrastructure on December 20. The 7th Brigade Combat Team discovered “underground infrastructure” including unspecified “water and electrical systems” in the homes of senior Hamas leaders in central Khan Younis.[34] The IDF’s 55th Brigade Combat Team also captured a militia weapons cache in Khan Younis.[35]

Israel and Hamas continued negotiations for a new humanitarian pause in fighting in exchange for Israeli hostages being held in the Gaza Strip. Egyptian officials claimed that Israeli negotiators proposed a one-week pause in fighting to allow humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip in exchange for 40 women, children, and elderly men held hostage.[36] Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have rejected any hostage release until a ceasefire is implemented and Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip.[37] PIJ is expected to participate in hostage negotiations with Hamas for the first time since the Israel-Hamas began.[38] PIJ observed the previous humanitarian pause in fighting but was not a party to negotiations.[39] An unidentified Israeli official stated that negotiations are still in the early stages.[40] Mossad Director David Barnea traveled to Doha, Qatar on December 18 to begin negotiations.[41]

PIJ Secretary General Ziad al Nakhalah and a PIJ delegation will travel to Cairo in the coming days to discuss ceasefire negotiations with Egyptian officials.[42] Nakhalah claimed that his delegation’s primary goal is to establish a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, remove Israeli forces from the territory, and begin reconstruction in the strip.[43] PIJ Deputy Secretary General Muhammad al Hindi said that PIJ will not negotiate any hostage release until these demands have been met.[44]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces in nine locations in the West Bank on December 20. Palestinian fighters detonated IEDs targeting Israeli forces in four towns in the northern and central West Bank.[45] Palestinian fighters also fired small arms at Israeli forces in seven towns.[46] The Jenin Battalion of the al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade claimed that its fighters fired small arms and detonated IEDs targeting Israeli forces in Yamoun.[47] The Qalqilya Battalion of the al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade fired small arms targeting an Israeli checkpoint near Qalqilya on December 19.[48] Israeli forces arrested 17 Palestinians, 11 of whom were affiliated with Hamas, during overnight raids in the West Bank on December 20.[49] The IDF confiscated small arms, ammunition, military equipment, and vehicles during the operations.[50] 

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted eight attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 20.[51] LH claimed that its fighters fired surface-to-air missiles targeting IDF helicopters operating over Shomira, Even Menachem, and Shtula.[52] LH also claimed two rocket strikes on IDF positions near Khirbet Maar and Shtula.[53]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Doha on December 19.[54] Haniyeh praised Iran and other regional actors for their support of the Palestinian people.[55] Haniyeh also denied the IDF’s claim that it controls part of the North Gaza Governorate.[56] Abdollahian said in a press conference after the meeting that Haniyeh claimed that Hamas has only used 14 percent of its defense capabilities and manpower.[57] This is Abdollahian’s fourth trip to Doha since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.[58]

Abdollahian also met with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammad bin Abdulrahman al Thani in Doha.[59] The two discussed the Israel-Hamas war and the likelihood of an imminent permanent ceasefire. Abdollahian questioned an unconfirmed US claim that an agreement on the Israel-Hamas war could be reached before the end of the year.[60] Abdollahian also said that indirect and direct diplomatic negotiations show that the region is gradually moving towards a ceasefire within an unspecified time frame.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi urged the Pakistani government to improve border security during a phone call with Pakistani President Arif Rahman Alavi.[61] Raisi’s statement comes after Balochi Salafi-jihadi fighters attacked a police station on December 15 in the Sistan and Baluchistan province, Iran.[62] Raisi also called for increased bilateral cooperation between Iran and Pakistan particularly in the energy sector. Raisi reiterated the importance of coordinated action by Islamic countries to end the Israel-Hamas war.

Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war during a phone call with his Syrian counterpart Faisal Mekdad on December 19.[63] The two spoke about the need for an immediate ceasefire and the provision of aid for the Palestinian people.

Iranian military leaders view current Hamas operations in the Gaza Strip as the prelude to a long-term war to destroy Israel. IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami stated the Palestinian resistance is practicing and gaining the necessary experience in “the formula for destroying Israel” during a meeting of provincial IRGC commanders in Khuzestan Province.[64] Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Gharaei Ashtiani said on November 18 that Israel’s military and intelligence failures since October 7 provide lessons for future action against it.[65] IRGC commanders previously framed Hamas’ al Aqsa Flood operation as a prelude to future attacks on Israel. Former IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari framed the attack as a “warmup” to prepare and train for future operations against Israel in an interview on October 15.[66] Salami described Hamas’ operation as the “first stage” of Israel’s “hasty collapse” on the same day.[67] Salami previously outlined what he considered to be the formula for destroying Israel during an interview with the Supreme Leader’s website in August 2022. Salami argued that Lebanese Hezbollah and Palestinian militias needed to conduct more ground operations and urban combat inside Israel that would destabilize and generate internal displacement leading to Israel’s collapse.[68]

US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland met with senior Iraqi federal government and Kurdistan Regional Government officials in Baghdad and Erbil, Iraq, on December 19 and 20.[69] Nuland congratulated Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani on the “successful” provincial council elections.[70] Sudani emphasized his government’s commitment to protecting diplomatic missions, embassies, and international coalition advisors in Iraq. Nuland separately discussed the provincial council elections with National Wisdom Movement head Ammar al Hakim.[71] The National Wisdom Movement won the third most seats in the elections.[72]

Nuland discussed protecting diplomatic missions and US and coalition forces in Iraq during a meeting with Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Nechirvan Barzani.[73] Nuland and Barzani also discussed the “political and security” situation in Iraq as well as relations between Erbil and Baghdad. Nuland also met with KRG Prime Minister Masoud Barzani. Nuland and Barzani discussed the risk of the reemergence of ISIS and emphasized the need for the KRG, Iraqi central government, and US-led international coalition to cooperate to combat terrorism.[74]

Iraqi media claimed on December 20 that unspecified militants attacked US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq.[75] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has not claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of writing.

Ashka Jhaveri, Amin Soltani, Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Annika Ganzeveld, Kathryn Tyson, and Peter Mills

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

Key Takeaways:

1. Israel appears to be nearing the final stages of its clearing operation in the northern Gaza Strip.
2. The IDF reported on December 18 that Israeli forces destroyed Hamas’ Beit Hanoun Battalion.
3. The al Qassem Brigades still has two units that are not committed to combat in the Rafah and the Central governorates that it could draw on to defend Khan Younis.
4. Palestinian militias conducted three indirect fire attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip.
5. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters nine times across the West Bank.
6. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
7. The Houthis claimed to have conducted two drone attacks targeting the Norwegian-owned, Cayman Islands-flagged Swan Atlantic tanker and Swiss-owned, Panama-flagged MSC Clara container ship in the Red Sea.
8. Israel conducted airstrikes targeting the IRGC headquarters at Sayyida Zainab, Damascus.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israel appears to be nearing the final stages of its clearing operation in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli ground forces advanced into the northern Gaza Strip on October 27.[1] Israeli clearing operations have relied on ground, air, and naval forces to destroy Hamas’ military infrastructure, namely its tunnel system and command structure.[2] Palestinian militia fighters have clashed with Israeli forces in virtually all neighborhoods of the northern Gaza Strip since October 27.[3] The Israeli Army Radio reported that the IDF has killed between 6,000 and 7,000 Palestinian militia fighters since the war began. Operations in the northern Gaza Strip likely resulted in most of the deaths.[4] CTP-ISW defines “degrade” as a temporary effect whereby a unit’s losses seriously impede its ability to continue executing assigned missions while the unit remains able to operate.[5]

Israeli forces are engaged in intense fighting against Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion the Shujaiya neighborhood of Gaza city.[6] A commander in the IDF noted that Shujaiya “was and still is an established stronghold” of Hamas. Palestinian militia fighters have attacked Israeli forces throughout clearing operations in Shujaiya using a variety of munitions, such as explosively formed penetrators and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) to resist Israeli advances.[7] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported on December 18 that its forces had captured and destroyed a central square in Shujaiya.[8] CTP-ISW has reported that the Shujaiya Battalion is also facing active and intense IDF pressure as Israel takes out its infrastructure and command structure.[9]

Commercially available satellite imagery captured on December 18 shows flattened terrain throughout Shujaiya neighborhood and Jabalia city, which indicates that Israeli tanks or bulldozers have been actively operating there since early December. Israel identified Jabalia and Shujaiya as targets for Israeli clearing operations.[10] Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on December 11 that Hamas’ Jabalia and Shujaiya Battalions are “on the verge of being dismantled.”[11]

The IDF reported on December 18 that Israeli forces destroyed Hamas’ Beit Hanoun Battalion.[12] Israeli forces took control of the battalions’ command and control centers including its underground headquarters and other militant infrastructure.[13] The IDF 252nd Reserve Division completed its operations in the area and handed over responsibility to the Gaza Division.[14] An Israeli war correspondent noted that the announcement indicates the military has firm control over the sector.[15] Israeli ground forces began operating in Beit Hanoun on October 27 and have faced almost daily Palestinian militia attacks on and behind the forward line of advance, with various munitions, including explosively formed penetrators (EFPs) and rocket-propelled grenades (RPG).[16] The IDF Chief of Staff told forces in the Gaza Strip on November 21 that it had caused very serious damage to the Beit Hanoun Battalion.[17]

Palestinian militias in the northern Gaza Strip will likely continue to target Israeli forces on and behind the Israeli forward line of advance. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed two complex attacks on Israeli forces in Beit Lahiya.[18] Militia fighters detonated IEDs and fired a thermobaric rocket at Israeli forces in one of the attacks.[19] The militia posted a video of an attack and claimed to fire a Kornet anti-tank guided missile at an Israeli jeep operating behind the Israeli line of advance.[20] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed sniper attacks against Israeli forces in Shujaiya and mortar Israeli forces in Juhor ad Dik on December 18.[21] Fighting behind the Israeli forward line of advance is consistent with the doctrinal definition of "clear,” which is a tactical task that "requires the commander to remove all enemy forces and eliminate organized resistance within an assigned area.”

Israeli forces detained Hamas and PIJ fighters in Rimal neighborhood of Gaza City last week. The IDF reported on December 18 that its forces detained several fighters belonging to Hamas and PIJ after intense clashes in Rimal last Friday.[22] Israel said it detained a member of the al Qassem Brigades’ naval commandos, the Nukhba forces, as well as a fighter who participated in the October 7 attacks.[23]

Palestinian fighters continued their attempts to resist Israeli forces as the IDF continued its advance in Khan Younis on December 18. The al Quds Brigades mortared Israeli soldiers in central and eastern Khan Younis and took control of an IDF quadcopter surveillance drone in eastern Khan Younis.[24] The al Qassem Brigades fired mortars, RPGs, and anti-personnel shells at Israeli forces and tanks in eastern and northern Khan Younis.[25] The IDF said its Special Forces Unit 217 has been fighting in the heart of Khan Younis for two weeks, raided a tactical tunnel system, and destroyed a drone manufacturing site.[26] Israeli aircraft struck Hamas fighters and infrastructure with direction from ground forces in Khan Younis on December 17 and 18.[27] These Israeli operations degrade Hamas’ ability to resist IDF advances in the southern Gaza Strip.

The al Qassem Brigades still has two units that are not committed to combat in the Rafah and the Central governorates that it could draw on to defend Khan Younis. The al Qassem Brigades maintain five geographic brigades in the Gaza Strip.[28] Israeli forces have not yet expanded clearing operations to the areas of responsibility of the Central Brigade in the Central governorate or the Rafah Brigade in Rafah governorate. An Israeli defense correspondent reported on December 18 that Hamas is transferring forces from the rest of the Gaza Strip to support its Khan Younis Brigade.[29] The same correspondent noted that the IDF assesses that it will take several months to defeat the Khan Younis Brigade.[30]

The Israeli defense minister expressed a vision for the next stage of operations in the Gaza Strip during a press conference with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on December 18. Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant said that some regions of the Gaza Strip are close to being able to transition to a “day after” the war and Israel can start working on bringing back the local population.[31] Gallant stated that this transition will be possible even while other parts of the Gaza Strip remain in active conflict.[32] Gallant also noted that Israel will not control Gaza in any civilian way.[33] Austin said that he spoke with Gallant about the military campaign's objectives, phasing, and protecting civilians.[34]

Hamas has continued to issue hostage propaganda since Israeli forces mistakenly killed three Israeli hostages in Shujaiya on December 15 and as hostage exchange negotiations resume. The al Qassem Brigades posted a video of three elderly male hostages calling on Israel to agree to a hostage/prisoner swap with no conditions and to not let them “grow old” in the Gaza Strip.[35] Hamas translated a hostage's statement as “we do not want to be casualties as a direct result of IDF airstrikes,” echoing a repeated and false information operation that Israeli airstrikes are killing the hostages.[36] PIJ claimed an Israeli airstrike killed an elderly Israeli hostage a day before the group released her through the temporary pause deal in late November.[37] Hamas Gaza leadership member Ghazi Hamad claimed that Israel is purposely killing the Hamas-held hostages in airstrikes and in the December 15 incident so that it doesn’t have to complete a hostage/prisoner swap.[38] Hamas has continued to message in recent days that it will not enter hostage negotiations until Israel stops its ground operation in the Gaza Strip.[39] CIA Director Bill Burns, Israeli Mossad head David Barnea, and the Qatari prime minister met to restart hostage negotiations on December 18, however.[40]

Palestinian militias conducted three indirect fire attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip on December 18. The al Quds Brigades fired rockets and mortars at Nahal Oz in southern Israel.[41] The militia separately claimed to fire rockets east of Rafah along the border with Israel.[42] The al Qassem Brigades fired rockets at Kissufim, where Israeli forces used a border crossing to enter the southern Gaza Strip.[43]

Israeli forces operating in Khan Younis reported on December 18 that they destroyed rocket launchers aimed at Israeli territory.[44] IDF Home Front Command lifted workplace and educational restrictions in Ashkelon in southern Israel after a situational assessment regarding the threat of rocket fire from the Gaza Strip.[45] The IDF evacuated and designated the periphery of the Gaza Strip as a military zone on October 11.[46] Israeli clearing operations and lifted restrictions in southern Israel are consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Israeli forces are likely degrading Hamas’ capacity to conduct indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel.[47]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters nine times across the West Bank on December 18.[48] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades engaged Israeli forces in small arms clashes and detonated IEDs targeting these forces in Azzun, west of Nablus.[49] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades separately fired on an Israeli civilian vehicle near Ramallah.[50] Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces and detonated IEDs targeting these forces in the al Fara refugee camp near Tubas.[51] Hamas’ West Bank branch said that Israeli forces killed four fighters during the clashes.[52]

The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades said that Israeli forces killed five fighters during clashes in the Noor Shams refugee camp in Tulkarm on December 17.[53] The Noor Shams Camp branch of the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades said that Israeli ”crimes will not go unnoticed” and called on fighters across the West Bank to unite against Israeli forces.[54] The Qalqilya branch of the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades called for further attacks on Israeli forces in revenge for the killing of Palestinian fighters in Tulkarm and Jenin.[55] A Palestinian journalist said that members of the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, Hamas, and the al Quds Brigades participated in a memorial service for fighters killed in Tulkarm.[56]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 18. LH claimed an attack on an IDF Iron Dome air defense system for the first time since the Hamas-Israel war began on October 7.[57] The IDF has not acknowledged the attack on the Iron Dome system. LH attacked Israeli forces near Hanita and fired rockets targeting Kiryat Shmona in retaliation for an IDF airstrike in Lebanon near the funeral of an LH fighter.[58] Unspecified fighters carried out four rocket attacks, one anti-tank guided missile attack, and launched one drone into northern Israel on December 18.[59] The IDF reported that it responded to LH attacks with artillery fire and airstrikes targeting LH rocket launchers and other unspecified military infrastructure in Lebanon on December 18.[60]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

Iraq held provincial council elections on December 18 for the first time since 2013.[61] Iraqi provincial councils are authorized to appoint and remove governors, approve provincial director-general positions, and approve provincial security plans.[62] The Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) announced midday on December 18 that only 17 percent of registered voters had cast votes.[63] Iraqi media claimed after the closing of the polls that voter participation had reached 38 percent and that voter participation was highest in the northern province of Kirkuk.[64] IHEC announced that it will release the results of the election on December 19.[65]

Iraqi media reported several instances of voter intimidation and violence at voting centers on December 18. Unidentified individuals threw IEDs at two voting stations in Kufah, Najaf Province.[66] Iraqi Joint Operations Deputy Commander Lieutenant General Qais al Muhammadawi separately announced that unspecified individuals hurled a stun grenade toward a voting center in Najaf.[67] Supporters of an unspecified political alliance stormed a voting center in Baghdad and demanded that voters vote for a member of their alliance.[68] Iraqi officials emphasized that the elections passed smoothly and without any major security incidents.

The Houthis claimed to have conducted two drone attacks targeting the Norwegian-owned, Cayman Islands-flagged Swan Atlantic tanker and Swiss-owned, Panama-flagged MSC Clara container ship in the Red Sea on December 18.[69] The Houthi Navy initially deployed unspecified “craft” with armed personnel to direct the ships to alter course before attacking them.[70] The Houthi military spokesperson claimed that the group conducted drone attacks on the two ships.[71] US officials stated, on the other hand, that multiple unspecified “projectiles” had been launched from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen.[72] It is unclear what munitions the Houthis used to conduct the attacks at the time of writing. The USS Carney responded to the Atlantic’s distress call.[73] Western media reported that the Atlantic was damaged in the attack.[74] The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported an explosion in the water near a vessel south of the port of Mokha in Yemen.[75] The Houthis have expanded their attacks on maritime traffic around the Red Sea to include all vessels traveling to Israel after having threatened to do so on December 9 and 12.[76]

The Houthi anti-shipping attack campaign continues to achieve one of its desired effects of disrupting Red Sea maritime traffic headed to Israel. The British petroleum company BP, Taiwanese shipping company Evergreen Line, and Belgian oil tanker company Euronav announced on December 18 that they will suspend shipping operations in the Red Sea.[77] Norwegian energy group Equinor similarly stated that it had rerouted an unspecified number of ships away from the Red Sea.[78] The above companies cited the “deteriorating security situation” in the area and concern for the “safety of ships and crew.” The Hong Kong-based shipping company Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) similarly announced on December 17 that it would immediately stop shipping goods to and from Israel.[79] Global shipping giants, such as Mediterranean Shipping Company, CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd, previously announced that they would pause operations around the Red Sea but did not specify how it would affect their services to Israel.[80]

Israel conducted airstrikes targeting the IRGC headquarters at Sayyida Zainab, Damascus on December 17.[81] The Syrian Defense Ministry stated that Israel conducted airstrikes near Damascus which injured two Syrian Arab Army soldiers.[82] Iranian-backed militia groups and the IRGC maintain their main headquarters in Sayyida Zainab and use it to facilitate Iranian lines of effort elsewhere in Syria.[83] Syrian opposition news outlet Eye of Euphrates reported on October 30 that the senior-most IRGC commander in Syria has coordinated all attacks on US forces in Syria through a joint operations room based in Sayyida Zainab.[84] Israel has regularly conducted airstrikes on the headquarters and recently killed general officers in IRGC Quds Force Unit 340, which is responsible for providing technical military support and training to members of the Axis of Resistance.[85] There is no reason to believe that Israel has targeted the same unit or capabilities as it is not clear what area of the Sayyida Zainab headquarters was targeted and the headquarters is a sprawling facility.

The Jordanian armed forces clashed with Iran-backed militias attempting to smuggle weapons and drugs through the Jordan-Syria border on December 18.[86] Jordanian state media stated that this was the largest armed cross-border weapons and drug smuggling operation in recent years.[87] Several Jordanian army personnel and smugglers were injured or killed during the clash. The Jordanian army similarly announced that it had neutralized an unspecified number of drug smugglers attempting to smuggle Captagon into the country on December 12.[88] The Syrian regime and Iran-backed militias mass produce the drug in Syria and smuggle it through Jordan to the Gulf Arab states, generating billions of dollars of revenue for the malign actors.[89] Jordanian and Western officials have stated that Iran and LH have been behind the surge in drug and weapons smuggling from southern Syria into Jordan.[90] The Jordanian armed forces conducted air strikes on Iran-linked drug factories in southern Syria in May 2023.[91]

Jordanian officials have been concerned about Iranian threats to their security beyond drug and weapons smuggling.[92] The Jordanian Armed Forces shot down three drones that traveled into their airspace from Syria in August 2023, which Jordanian officials linked to Iran-backed militias in Syria.[93] Jordan also borders Iraq and the West Bank whose local governments and security institutions are infiltrated by Iran-backed militias that can then infiltrate Jordan from all directions. Some Western analysts have noted that Jordan is home to millions of displaced refugees from Iraq, Syria, and the West Bank which Iran can recruit for its militant groups.[94] Many of the Palestinian civil society organizations in Jordan are reportedly linked to Iran-sponsored groups.[95]

An Israel-affiliated hacktivist group “Predatory Sparrow” conducted a large-scale cyberattack against gas pumps throughout Iran on December 18.[96] The cyberattack disabled between 60-70% of the gas stations around the country.[97] President Ebrahim Raisi confirmed the fuel stations were experiencing a disruption and ordered the Ministry of Oil to investigate this.[98] Iranian media outlets and Oil Minister Javad Owji stated that the oil disruption was a result of a cyberattack by Israel and the United States.[99] Iran also recently blamed Israel for the December 15 Jaish al Adl attack in Sistan and Baluchistan province.[100]

The "Predatory Sparrow” group claimed responsibility on X for the attack and warned this was only a small part of their capabilities.[101] They further stated that they were acting in response to Iranian provocations in the region and warned Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei directly that ”playing with fire has a price.” According to Israel Army Radio correspondent Doron Kadosh, Israel claimed responsibility for the attack.[102] Israel warned Iranian emergency services before the attack in a form of cyber “roof-knocking”.[103] The “Predatory Sparrow“ group has targeted IRGC-affiliated industries in the past and attributed responsibility to Israel. [104]

Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the recent attack on an LEC Headquarters in Rask, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, during a phone call with his Pakistani counterpart Jalil Abbas Jilani on December 18.[105] The two foreign ministers discussed the Israel-Hamas war. Jilani emphasized Pakistan’s commitment to cooperating with Iran to counter terrorism.

Iran Update, December 17, 2023 

Click here to read the full report with maps

Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, Kathryn Tyson, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces uncovered an advanced and extensive Hamas tunnel system in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli officials reported that Mohammad Sinwar—the brother of Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar—headed the tunnel building project.
2. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Shujaiya and Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip. The al Qassem Brigades have not claimed an attack on Israeli forces in Shujaiya since December 14.
3. Palestinian militias continued attacking Israeli forces near Juhor ad Dik. CTP-ISW previously assessed that Palestinian militias may be using relative safe haven in the central Gaza Strip to enable attacks on Israeli forces around Juhor ad Dik.
4. The IDF reported that it raided the outpost of Hamas’ Deir al Balah Battalion.
5. An Israeli defense correspondent reported that Hamas is transferring forces from the rest of the Gaza Strip to support its Khan Younis Brigade.
6. Israeli forces advanced to the central square in Bani Suheila as Palestinian militias attempted to resist Israeli advances north and east of Khan Younis.
7. Telecommunications services are returning to parts of the Gaza Strip after a multi-day communications blackout.
8. Palestinian militias conducted six indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel.
9. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters for several hours in Tulkarm area. Palestinian fighters separately clashed with Israeli forces around Hebron.
10. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 11 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
11. The Houthi anti-shipping attack campaign continues to achieve one of its desired effects of disrupting maritime traffic headed to Israel.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces uncovered an advanced and extensive Hamas tunnel system in the northern Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported on December 17 that its forces had uncovered four kilometers of the tunnel near the Erez crossing in recent weeks.[1] The tunnel is wide enough for vehicles to pass through it, reinforced with concrete, and connected to electricity and communications infrastructure.[2] Israel said one section of the tunnel is the largest that it has discovered in the Gaza Strip and 400 meters from Israeli territory.[3] The IDF stated that it was not familiar with the tunnel route nor its enormous scope prior to the war.[4] The Wall Street Journal published a map of the tunnel system that Hamas has created below the Gaza Strip based on data from 2014, which includes a singular tunnel running south of the Erez checkpoint.[5] The IDF published a map on December 17 of the entire tunnel network that it has uncovered, which shows a notable expansion of the tunnels’ coverage and complexity compared to the 2014 data.[6]

Israeli officials reported that Mohammad Sinwar—the brother of Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar—headed the tunnel building project.[7] Mohammad Sinwar is Hamas’ head of logistics and manpower.[8] The IDF published a video of Mohammad Sinwar driving a car through what they said is the tunnel.[9] Another video of the tunnel shows Hamas fighters using a large tunnel drill that allowed them to develop and expand the tunnel.[10] The IDF found inside the tunnel system unspecified digging machines, which Israel had not previously observed Hamas use to construct tunnels.[11] Israel estimates that Hamas has spent millions of dollars its tunnel infrastructure throughout the Gaza Strip.[12] IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari told reporters that Hamas has diverted building materials, especially concrete, away from civilian infrastructure to build its tunnels.[13]

The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—conducted a complex attack targeting the IDF at the Erez crossing on October 29.[14] The fighters infiltrated Israeli territory via a tunnel west of the checkpoint, presumably the same one Israel has uncovered. Hamas maintains approximately 500 kilometers of tunnel underneath the Gaza Strip and has consistently used it to maneuver and launch attacks on Israeli forces.[15] The tunnels also conceal operations rooms, weapons stockpiles, and rocket firing positions.[16] Israeli officials have emphasized their intention to eliminate Hamas’ tunnel network.[17]

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Shujaiya and Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip on December 17. Israeli forces raided an apartment building in Shujaiya and found weapons, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), grenades, and a tunnel shaft.[18] The IDF conducted an airstrike to destroy the tunnel shaft in addition to an arms depot in the house of a Hamas operative.[19] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed that its fighters clashed with seven Israeli infantrymen and fired at them with small arms and anti-personnel munitions in Shujaiya.[20]

The al Qassem Brigades have not claimed an attack on Israeli forces in Shujaiya since December 14. CTP-ISW previously assessed that Israeli clearing operations may be disrupting Palestinian militia fighters’ ability to frequently communicate with each other.[21] Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion is also facing active and intense IDF pressure as Israel takes out its infrastructure and command structure.[22] Israeli forces destroyed the headquarters of Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion on December 15.[23]

Israeli forces located a tunnel shaft in a child’s room during clearing operations in Jabalia.[24] The al Quds Brigades claimed that its fighters targeted four Israeli vehicles with tandem-charge rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) and anti-armor grenades in the vicinity of Jabalia.[25] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—claimed that its fighters fired RPGs at Israeli forces in Jabalia.[26]

Palestinian militias continued attacking Israeli forces near Juhor ad Dik on December 17. The al Quds Brigades claimed to mortar a concentration of Israeli forces in Juhor ad Dik on December 17.[27] The al Quds Brigades and al Qassem Brigades also claimed to conduct a combined attack targeting an Israeli Merkava tank with an unspecified explosive device in al Mughraqa, west of Juhor ad Dik.[28] The al Quds Brigades and the al Qassem Brigades have claimed several combined attacks throughout the Israel-Hamas War.[29] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Palestinian militias may be using relative safe haven in the central Gaza Strip to enable attacks on Israeli forces around Juhor ad Dik.[30] The tactical coordination on the ground and coordination at the senior level between these militias is consistent with the reality that the IDF is facing a coalition of several Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip.

The IDF reported on December 17 that it raided the outpost of Hamas’ Deir al Balah Battalion. The IDF confiscated military training manuals and intelligence materials during the raid.[31] CTP-ISW previously reported that Israeli forces are attempting to dismantle Hamas in Deir al Balah.[32] Israeli ground and naval forces have destroyed Hamas militant infrastructure, including observation posts and weapons storage facilities, in the central Gaza Strip.[33] The Deir al Balah Battalion, which is part of Hamas’ Central Brigade, released a training video prior to beginning of the war showing its militia fighters practicing close-quarters combat in urban environments.[34]

An Israeli defense correspondent reported that Hamas is transferring forces from the rest of the Gaza Strip to support its Khan Younis Brigade.[35] Palestinian militia fighters whom Israeli forces detained in the Gaza Strip told the IDF during questioning about the reinforcements.[36] The al Qassem Brigades maintain five geographic brigades in the Gaza Strip.[37] The Israeli Army Radio journalist covering the story noted that the IDF assesses that it will take several months to defeat the Khan Younis Brigade.[38] Israel has identified Khan Younis and Rafah as Hamas strongholds given the presence of Hamas leadership and military infrastructure there.[39]

Israeli forces advanced to the central square in Bani Suheila on December 17 as Palestinian militias attempted to resist Israeli advances north and east of Khan Younis. The IDF 7th Brigade Combat Team reached the square, suggesting that the IDF advances from the north and east have linked up east of Khan Younis.[40] Israeli forces have found about 30 tunnel shafts, attacked Palestinian militia positions and observation posts, confiscated weapons, and obtained intelligence materials in the Khan Younis area over the past week.[41] The al Quds Brigades fired mortars, small arms, and anti-armor munitions at Israeli infantrymen and vehicles advancing north and east of Khan Younis.[42] The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its fighters mortared Israeli forces east of Khan Younis.[43]

The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—claimed that its fighters mortared Israeli military vehicles east of Rafah.[44] Detained fighters from the Gaza Strip said during questioning that Israeli forces were not yet operating in Rafah.[45]

Telecommunications services are returning to parts of the Gaza Strip after a multi-day communications blackout.[46] The Palestinian Red Crescent Society (PRSC) and NetBlocks reported that the Gaza Strip was experiencing the longest telecoms blackout since the beginning of the war.[47] Palestinian telecommunications company Jawwal reported on December 17 that its teams had repaired a damaged site to restore services in the northern Gaza Strip.[48] NetBlocks reported on December 17 that internet connectivity is being restored in parts of the Gaza Strip, noting that service remains significantly below pre-war levels.[49]

UN aid convoys began entering the Gaza Strip via the Kerem Shalom crossing on December 17. Israel said that UN aid trucks will undergo security checks at the crossing and be directly transferred into the Gaza Strip via the crossing.[50] Israel said that the opening will increase the daily volume of humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip.[51] The Kerem Shalom crossing was previously only an inspection site for humanitarian aid trucks.[52]

Hamas continued to message that it will not enter hostage negotiations until Israel stops its ground operation in the Gaza Strip. Hamas’ political wing posted on its Telegram on December 16 affirming its position not to resume negotiations with Israel until the end of fighting in the strip.[53] Hamas Political Bureau member and representative of Gaza city Khalil al Hayya gave an interview to al Jazeera on December 17 similarly messaging that that Hamas would be ready for a comprehensive hostage deal once Israeli clearing operations conclude.[54]

Unspecified diplomatic sources told CNN that Mossad director David Barnea met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani to discuss resuming hostage negotiations.[55] The sources noted that the meeting was “positive” without expanding further.[56] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office told CNN on December 15 that Israel believes there are 132 hostages still in the Gaza Strip, 112 of whom are thought to be alive and 20 of whom are thought to be dead.[57]

Palestinian militias conducted six indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel on December 17. The al Qassem Brigades and al Quds Brigades each conducted two rocket attacks into southern Israel.[58] The Mujahideen Brigades—the militant wing of the Palestinian Mujahideen Movement—claimed to fire rockets at an Israeli military position in southern Israel.[59] The militia has cooperated with the al Quds Brigades prior to the Israel-Hamas war.[60] Palestinian media reported an additional rocket attack into southern Israel.[61]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters for several hours in Tulkarm area on December 17.[62] Palestinian fighters detonated IEDs and fired small arms at Israeli forces within the Noor Shams refugee camp in Tulkarm.[63] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—claimed ambushes and IED attacks targeting Israeli forces.[64] The militia’s Tulkarm Branch called on all al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades branches to ”strike terror in the hearts” of Israelis by attacking Israeli forces and positions.[65] The group also alluded to a ”surprise” in the next few days. The IDF Air Force conducted drone strikes in Tulkarm and killed at least four militants during the operation.[66] Israeli forces also uncovered ready-to-use IEDs.[67] Palestinian fighters separately clashed with Israeli forces around Hebron.[68]

Palestinians gathered at Arab American University in Jenin to demonstrate in support of the Gaza Strip on December 17.[69] Several demonstrators wore Hamas regalia. Palestinian civil society groups called for additional demonstrations and strikes in the West Bank on December 18.[70] A global strike in support of Palestine is planned for December 18 as well.[71]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted 11 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 17.[72] LH launched six rockets targeting Israeli forces near Honin.[73] LH separately fired anti-tank rockets targeting Israeli military assets and infrastructure in the Dovev area.[74] The IDF said that an Israeli tank attacked the source of the fire.[75] The IDF Air Force also said that it struck LH cells and military infrastructure in Lebanon on December 17.[76]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Houthi anti-shipping attack campaign continues to achieve one of its desired effects of disrupting maritime traffic headed to Israel. Hong Kong-based shipping company Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) announced on December 17 that it would immediately stop shipping goods to and from Israel.[77] The company cited “operational issues” for the policy.[78] OOCL is the first global shipping company that CTP-ISW has observed to specifically halt operations to Israel since the Houthis began their campaign against international shipping around the Bab al Mandeb in November.[79] Global shipping giants, such as Mediterranean Shipping Company, CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd, previously announced that they would pause operations around the Red Sea but did not specify how it would affect their services to Israel.[80] Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam commended OOCL’s decision to stop sending ships to Israeli ports and falsely asserted that the Houthis are only attacking ships linked to Israel on December 17.[81] Several of the ships that the Houthis have attacked in recent days were en route to destinations outside of Israel, such as Saudi Arabia.

Iran Update, December 16, 2023

Click here to read the full report with maps

Brian Carter, Andie Parry, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

Key Takeaways:

1. The Israel Defense Forces concluded its probe into the accidental killing of three hostages by an IDF unit in Shujaiya.
2. Mossad Direct David Barnea met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman al Thani to begin negotiations to free additional hostages.
3. Hamas fighters are attacking IDF units near Juhor ad Dik likely from Hamas’ relative safe haven in the Gaza Strip’s Central Governorate.
4. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Shujaiya, Jabalia, and Sheikh Radwan.
5. Palestinian fighters continued their attempts to resist Israeli forces as the IDF continued its advance in Khan Younis.
6. The al Quds Brigades conducted two indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip targeting Sufa, southern Israel.
7. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters around Nablus. The al Qassem Brigades reiterated calls for militia attacks on Israeli forces and settlers in the West Bank.
8. Lebanese Hezbollah conducted six cross-border attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
9. An Iraq-focused journalist said that Iraqi Security Forces arrested Kataib Hezbollah (KH) and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba fighters in connection to the December 8 rocket attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad.
10. The Houthis refocused their attack campaign to target Israel directly rather than international shipping and may have concluded that they achieved their objective of halting shipping through the Red Sea.
11. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks against US forces in Syria.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) concluded its probe into the accidental killing of three hostages by an IDF unit in Shujaiya on December 15.[1] The IDF said that three shirtless individuals, whom the IDF later identified as hostages, waving a white flag exited a building “several dozen meters” from an IDF position.[2] An IDF soldier immediately opened fire at the three individuals in contravention of the IDF’s standing orders that forbid shooting at surrendering individuals.[3] The soldier’s fire killed two of the hostages and wounded a third. An IDF battalion commander gave an order to ceasefire. A different IDF soldier opened fire on the third wounded man in contravention to the direct ceasefire order, killing the man.

The Israeli defense minister and the IDF chief of staff took personal responsibility for the deaths of the three hostages.[4] Halevi highlighted that both shooters violated the IDF’s standing order that forbids shooting at any individual raising a white flag and asking to surrender.[5]

Hamas continued its information operation blaming the Israeli ground operation for hostage deaths and framed hostage deaths in the context of the December 15 incident. This information operation aims to undermine support for the war in Israel and increase pressure on Israeli leaders to pursue a ceasefire. Hamas official Osama Hamdan restated Hamas’ current negotiating position on December 16.[6] The current position which forbids exchanging further hostages before the end of the Israeli ground operation.[7] Hamdan said that Israel will not recover the hostages through the ground operation. Hamas posted a video called “time is running out,” showing hostages speaking before showing the dead body of one of those hostages.[8] Hamas framed the video in the context of the IDF’s accidental killing of the three hostages on December 15. Hamas also published a graphic showing a hostage in a coffin with the caption ”the choice is yours, whether in coffins or alive.” The group’s military spokesperson said that Israel is continuing to ”gamble the lives of its soldiers” held hostage by Hamas. The spokesperson claimed that Israel ”deliberately executed” the three hostages in the December 15 incident.[9]

Mossad Direct David Barnea met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman al Thani to begin negotiations to free additional hostages.[10] A source “familiar with the meeting” told an Israeli journalist that the talks are “just beginning” and the process of negotiations would be “long.” CIA Director William Burns and Egyptian intelligence head Abbas Kamal were “briefed” on the meeting and will help secure a new hostage deal, according to two sources familiar with the meeting between Barnea and Thani. It is notable in this context that Hamas’ current position is that no hostages will be exchanged before the end of the Israeli ground operation.

Hamas fighters are attacking IDF units near Juhor ad Dik likely from Hamas’ relative safe haven in the Gaza Strip’s Central Governorate. Multiple Hamas fighters raided the IDF’s combat outpost near Juhor ad Dik on December 16. The group claimed that it killed ten Israelis and posted a video showing its fighters, killing one IDF soldier.[11] Hamas and other Palestinian militias have conducted three raids against an IDF outpost in the Juhor ad Dik area since December 3, which suggests Hamas and other Palestinian fighters are using the central Gaza Strip to launch operations against Israeli forces near Juhor ad Dik.[12] The IDF has not conducted clearing operations in the central Gaza Strip, and CTP-ISW has previously assessed that all four Hamas battalions in the central Gaza Strip remain combat effective.[13] Both the al Qassem Brigades--Hamas’ militant wing--and the al Quds Brigades--Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)’s military wing--shelled Israeli positions near Juhor ad Dik on December 16.[14]

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Shujaiya, Jabalia, and Sheikh Radwan on December 16. Israeli forces finished clearing the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Jabalia on December 16. The IDF said that Hamas used the hospital as a military compound.[15] The IDF recovered RPGs, explosives, and intelligence material. Israeli forces also detained 90 fighters in the area. Palestinian fighters continued to attack Israeli forces in Jabalia with small arms and anti-tank rockets.[16] Hamas published a video showing a dead Israeli working dog in a Hamas tunnel in Sheikh Radwan on December 15. The group has continued to attack Israeli forces with rocket-propelled grenades, thermobaric rockets, and small arms in Sheikh Radwan.[17] The commander of the 188th Brigade said that his brigade destroyed Hamas infrastructure and that it is currently clearing Shujaiya in a statement on December 16.[18] Unspecified Palestinian fighters fired at 188th Brigade soldiers from a tunnel shaft near a school on Shujaiya. The IDF destroyed the tunnel shaft in response.[19]

Israeli troops also raided two schools in Rimal on December 16, killing 25 Hamas fighters and detaining 50 more.[20]

Palestinian fighters continued their attempts to resist Israeli forces as the IDF continued its advance in Khan Younis on December 16. The al Qassem Brigades and al Quds Brigades shelled Israeli forces along the Israeli ground line of communication northeast of Khan Younis on December 15 in a combined operation.[21] The al Qassem Brigades also used rocket-propelled grenades, mortars, other explosive devices to attack Israeli armor and other vehicles east of Khan Younis on December 16.[22] The group fired rockets at Israeli infantry east of Khan Younis city on December 16, which it claimed killed one Israeli soldier. Hamas continued to resist Israeli forces north of Khan Younis.[23] Hamas’ militant wing detonated one explosively-formed penetrator targeting an Israeli armored personnel carrier north of Khan Younis city.[24]

The al Qassem Brigades conducted a complex, multi-stage ambush targeting Israeli forces east of Khan Younis on December 16.[25] The brigades’ fighters detonated two anti-personnel improvised explosive devices (IED) targeting seven Israeli infantrymen east of the city. An Israeli quick reaction force (QRF) responded to the initial ambush. The al Qassem Brigades fighters ambushed the QRF by detonating a third anti-personnel IED. Hamas’ militant wing claimed that both attacks killed and injured Israeli soldiers.

The IDF said that it raided apartments in Khan Younis on December 16.[26] The IDF’s 4th Brigade Combat Team discovered weapons and underground infrastructure in the complex.

The al Quds Brigades conducted two indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip targeting Sufa, southern Israel, on December 16.[27] Palestinian militias conducted no other attacks targeting Israel on December 16.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters around Nablus on December 16. Palestinian fighters conducted three small arms attacks and three IED attacks in Nablus refugee camps.[28] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—claimed two of the small arms attacks and one of the IED attacks.[29] The group also claimed an attack on Israeli forces near Tulkarm.[30]

The al Qassem Brigades reiterated calls for militia attacks on Israeli forces and settlers in the West Bank on December 15.[31] Al Qassem Brigades spokesperson Abu Obeida released a statement in which he called for Palestinians to fight Israeli forces and settlers in the West Bank.[32] Obeida stated that Israel “seeks to kill our people everywhere” and that Palestinians have a duty to confront Israel.[33] Obeida had threatened on December 10 that Hamas would conduct additional terror attacks against Israeli civilians.[34] Hamas and the al Qassem Brigades have repeatedly called for an uprising and mobilization in the West Bank but have received little response, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[35]

The IDF did not acknowledge that Israel forces conducted overnight raids in the West Bank on December 16. The Palestinian Prisoners and Ex-Prisoners’ Affairs Authority, which is part of the Palestinian Authority, said Israeli forces arrested 16 Palestinians, however.[36]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) conducted six cross-border attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 16.[37] LH launched two attack drones at Israel forces near Margaliot.[38] The IDF intercepted one drone but the other struck a group of Israeli soldiers, killing one and wounding two.[39]LH last claimed a drone attack that injured Israeli forces on December 10.[40] LH has only claimed eight drone attacks on Israeli positions along the Lebanese border since the Israel-Hamas war began, although the IDF frequently intercepts ”suspicious” aerial targets originating from Lebanon.[41] LH filmed the December 16 drone attack with multiple cameras and released a polished propaganda video.[42] LH frequently posts video compilations of its attacks on Israeli communications and military infrastructure but usually without the production quality shown in this most recent video.[43] The rising quality of LH’s videos and map graphics indicate that LH operations are increasing in professionalism along the Israel-Lebanon border, which could drive recruitment

Separately, LH conducted two consecutive attacks on Israeli infantry at the Birkat Risha site along the Lebanon-Israel border.[44] LH conducted three other attacks on IDF positions using rockets and unspecified munitions on December 16.[45]

The United States and a regional security source speaking to CNN said that Israel has struck Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) positions 34 times since October 7.[46] Biden administration officials have conveyed to Israel that the strikes on LAF positions are unacceptable. A senior US official said that some of the strikes were clearly accidental, while the purpose of other strikes was not clear. UNSC Resolution 1701 permits the LAF to have a military presence south of the Litani river near the Israeli border but prohibits LH presence.[47]\

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

An Iraq-focused journalist said that Iraqi Security Forces arrested Kataib Hezbollah (KH) and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba fighters on December 14 in connection to the December 8 rocket attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad.[48] A senior Iraqi security official told the journalist that the militias ”crossed lines” and that the situation is ”serious.”[49] CTP-ISW previously reported that the ISF arrested militia members on December 14, but the Iraqi government did not specify to which militia the fighters belonged.[50] The Iraqi central government has previously arrested KH and KH-linked fighters. The Iraqi judicial system released the fighters on both occasions after armed Iranian-backed fighters stormed Baghdad’s Green Zone. Iraq’s Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) raided a Kataib Hezbollah compound in June 2020, arresting 14 KH fighters.[51] Then-Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi’s government released the KH fighters after KH fighters—led by Iranian proxy and KH leader Abu Fadak al Muhammadawi—stormed the Green Zone.[52] Kadhimi’s government also arrested the commander of KH-affiliated Liwa al Tafuf in May 2021, but released the commander after 12 days.[53] The commander’s arrest caused an armed standoff between PMF fighters and ISF units in the Green Zone.[54]

The Houthis refocused their attack campaign to target Israel directly rather than international shipping on December 16 and may have concluded that they achieved their objective of halting shipping through the Red Sea. The Houthi spokesperson announced the group launched tens of drones targeting sensitive targets in Eilat, Israel, on December 16.[55] The spokesperson said that Houthi Movement Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi ordered the attack to achieve victory for the Palestinian people and that attacks on Israel will continue until Israeli aggression in the Gaza Strip halts. US Central Command said that the USS Carney shot down 14 attack drones launched as a drone wave from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen in the Red Sea.[56]  Egyptian air defenses also intercepted a “flying object“ in the Gulf of Aqaba near Eilat.[57] British warship HMS Diamond intercepted a single attack drone it suspected of targeting merchant shipping in the Red Sea on December 16.[58] The Houthis did not claim to target commercial shipping on December 16, however.

The Houthi anti-shipping campaign has likely achieved its desired effect for the moment. Two additional shipping giants, Swiss-based MSC and the French shipping group CMA CGM, suspended their ships’ transit through the Red Sea on December 16 after the Houthi attacks. Major international shipping companies, such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, had responded on December 15 to the Houthi attacks by pausing their operations through the Red Sea and routing ships instead around Africa.[59] Maersk alone accounts for roughly 17 percent of global shipping.[60] The Houthis have conducted almost daily drone and missile attacks against commercial vessels transiting the Bab al Mandeb since December 9. The most recent attacks occurred on December 15, when the Houthis struck two vessels off the coast of Yemen.[61]The Houthi military spokesperson framed these attacks as part of their ongoing attack campaign targeting all commercial maritime traffic headed to or affiliated with Israel and vowed to continue these attacks.[62]

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks against US forces in Syria on December 16.[63] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a single drone attack against US forces at the Rumalyn Landing Zone in Hasakah Province, Syria. The group has claimed at least five attacks on Rumalyn Landing Zone since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a single drone attack against US forces at US base Conoco Mission Support Site in northeastern Syria. The group has claimed at least 13 attacks on Conoco since the start of the war. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a single drone attack against US forces at al Omar oil field. The group has claimed at least four attacks on al Omar since the start of the war.

Iran is blaming Israel for the December 16 attack on a police station in Sistan and Baluchistan Province. Iranian Interior Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi stated that Israel supports armed groups seeking to create insecurity in Sistan and Baluchistan Province during his visit to the site of the attack.[64] Vahidi subsequently repeated the accusation during his remarks at the funeral ceremony for the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) officers killed during the attack.[65] Iranian judicial authorities, furthermore, executed an unspecified individual in Sistan and Baluchistan Province they accused of cooperating with the Israeli Mossad to assist anti-regime militant groups in the province.[66] Jaish al Adl– a Balochi anti-regime group operating around the Iran-Pakistan border--conducted a two-stage attack targeting a police station in Rask, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on December 15, killing 11 LEC officers.[67]

Iran, China, and Saudi Arabia issued a joint statement calling for an immediate end to Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip on December 16 in Beijing.[68] The statement also called for the provision of humanitarian aid and the creation of an independent Palestinian state. The statement follows the Iranian deputy foreign affairs minister’s visit to Beijing on December 15 to discuss the Israel-Hamas war and the Iran-Saudi normalization process with his Chinese and Saudi counterparts.[69]

 

Iran Update, December 15, 2023

Click here to read the full report with maps

Brian Carter, Ashka Jhaveri, Nicholas Carl, Johanna Moore,

Peter Mills, Amin Soltani, Alexandra Braverman, and Kathryn Tyson

Key Takeaways:

1. Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to demonstrate their capability to control a key maritime route and chokepoint in the Middle East.
2. The Houthis have conducted almost daily drone and missile attacks against commercial vessels transiting the Bab al Mandeb since December 9.
3. The Houthi attack campaign signals to the international community that the Axis of Resistance can imperil ships around the Bab al Mandeb in addition to the Strait of Hormuz.
4. Israeli forces destroyed the headquarters of Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion in the northern Gaza Strip.
5. Israeli clearing operations may be disrupting Palestinian militia fighters’ ability to frequently communicate with each other.
6. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted 11 cross-border attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
7. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters in Tel Aviv that Israel will transition to the next phase of the war, which will focus on targeting leadership and intelligence operations rather than high-intensity clearance operations.
8. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for a one-way drone attack targeting US forces in Iraq.
9. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba Secretary General Akram al Kaabi released a statement justifying resistance against the United States in Iraq.

 Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to demonstrate their capability to control a key maritime route and chokepoint in the Middle East. The Houthis have conducted almost daily drone and missile attacks against commercial vessels transiting the Bab al Mandeb since December 9. The most recent attacks occurred on December 15, when the Houthis struck two vessels off the coast of Yemen.[1] The Houthi military spokesperson framed these attacks as part of their ongoing attack campaign targeting all commercial maritime traffic headed to or affiliated with Israel and vowed to continue these attacks.[2]

The Houthi attack campaign signals to the international community that the Axis of Resistance can imperil ships around the Bab al Mandeb in addition to the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has long worked to establish the military capabilities and posture necessary to disrupt traffic around these strategic chokepoints. US officials and Western media have reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is directly involved in planning and executing the attacks with the Houthis.[3] The IRGC similarly threatens international shipping around the Strait of Hormuz to impose pressure on foreign adversaries.[4] The IRGC, for instance, conducted an attack campaign around the Strait of Hormuz in 2019 that is similar to the one that the Houthis are now waging.[5]

These attacks are disrupting all traffic in the Red Sea, not just traffic bound for Israel. Several of the vessels that the Houthis have attacked were headed to destinations other than Israel, demonstrating the threat that the Houthis pose to global shipping more broadly.[6] Major international shipping companies, such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, have responded to the Houthi attacks by pausing their operations through the Red Sea and routing ships instead around Africa.[7] Maersk alone accounts for roughly 17 percent of global shipping.[8] Other companies are reportedly scaling back their operations in the Red Sea as well.[9]

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces destroyed the headquarters of Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli air, artillery, and engineering forces took over the compound in Shujaiya after ground forces clashed with Palestinian militia fighters.[10] Palestinian fighters in a tunnel shaft attempted to detonate an improvised explosive device targeting Israeli forces in Shujaiya.[11] The IDF responded by destroying the tunnel.[12] The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—and the al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—did not claim any attacks on Israeli forces in the Shujaiya neighborhood on December 15. CTP-ISW previously reported that Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion remains capable of executing its defense mission in Shujaiya, indicating that it is not combat ineffective.[13] This is despite several Israeli military sources reporting that Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion is “dismantled” and lost its “command and control” capabilities.[14] IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi told Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip on December 14 that they are facing challenging terrain in the Shujaiya and Zaytoun neighborhoods.[15] An Israeli journalist embedded with the IDF’s Kfir Brigade in Shujaiya reported on December 11 that Hamas forces in Shujaiya are ”waging a guerrilla war” and have not ”abandoned the fight.[16]

Israeli clearing operations may be disrupting Palestinian militia fighters' ability to frequently communicate with each other. The disruption of Palestinian fighters’ communications would make it more difficult for fighters to transmit reports to the media officials responsible for generating attack claims. This disruption may be contributing to the lower rate of attack claims in Shujaiya, for example. Residents told Reuters on December 15 that there is intense fighting across the northern Gaza Strip, including Shujaiya, Zaytoun, and Tuffah where Israeli forces are attempting to dismantle the Shujaiya Battalion.[17] The al Quds Brigades posted on its Telegram channel on December 15 that it had resumed contact with its forces east of Gaza City.[18] The ground forces relayed their various attack claims. The al Qassem Brigades have similarly posted several times in the past week that its forces relayed their various kinetic engagements after returning from the front lines in the northern Gaza Strip.[19] CTP-ISW did not observe the militias using language that suggests that there is a significant strain on communication networks at any other point in the war.

The residents also reported fighting in Sheikh Radwan neighborhood, southwest of Jabalia city where Israeli forces have been operating since November 18.[20] The al Quds Brigades claimed that its fighters targeted three military vehicles with tandem shells in Beit Lahiya, northwest of Jabalia city.[21] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades claimed two clashes with Israeli forces in the Jabalia refugee camp and Sheikh Radwan neighborhood, southwest of Jabalia city.[22]

Israeli forces mistakenly identified three Israeli hostages held in the Gaza Strip as a threat and killed them during clearing operations in the Shujaiya neighborhood of Gaza city. The IDF confirmed the incident and the identities of the hostages on December 15.[23] The Israelis were taken hostage during Hamas’ October 7 attack.[24]

Palestinian militia fighters attempted to lure Israeli forces into a tunnel using simulated sounds of children.[25] The IDF reported on December 15 that its forces encountered a tactically sophisticated Hamas ambush involving a speaker system set up outside a tunnel system that runs through civilian infrastructure, including a school, clinic, and mosque.[26] Israeli forces identified anti-tank positions and a minefield during the operation.[27] The ambush demonstrates that Hamas retains a degree of tactical effectiveness that allows its fighters to undertake complex tactical tasks.

Palestinian militias continued attacks on Israeli forces behind the Israeli forward line of advance in the northern Gaza Strip, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its fighters clashed with Israeli forces inside an Israeli combat outpost in the Juhor ad Dik area.[28] The militia separately claimed that it fired a thermobaric rocket at an Israeli-held building in Juhor ad Dik.[29] Israeli forces crossed into the central Gaza Strip from near Juhor ad Dik at the beginning of the ground operation.[30] Palestinian militia fighters have claimed several indirect fire attacks on Israeli forces south of Gaza City, which suggests that they are attempting to harass and disrupt the Israeli ground lines of communication that support offensive operations in the northern Gaza Strip.

Palestinian militias continued to resist Israeli advances in the southern Gaza Strip on December 15. Al Qassem Brigades fighters detonated a house-borne improvised explosive device targeting Israeli forces east of Khan Younis on December 15.[31] The al Quds Brigades also posted videos showing its forces mortaring Israeli units east of Khan Younis.[32]

Palestinian media reported that Palestinian militias engaged Israeli forces with small arms east of Rafah on December 15.[33] CTP-ISW has not previously observed ground clashes in eastern Rafah after Israeli forces entered the southern Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces targeted Hamas military infrastructure in Khan Younis and Rafah as part of Israeli efforts to degrade Hamas’ military capacity. IDF special operations forces and ground forces units continued raids and clearing operations in the southern Gaza Strip.[34] The IDF said that it discovered tunnel shafts in Khan Younis, including one tunnel shaft with motorcycles inside that the IDF said Hamas used in the October 7 attacks.[35] An IDF raid also targeted the home of Hamas’ North Khan Younis Battalion rocket artillery commander.[36] The IDF reported that it killed the North Khan Younis Battalion commander on October 27.[37] Hamas‘ formal military structure means that it will likely rapidly replace the rocket artillery commander with his deputy, ensuring continuity of command and rapid reconstitution of Hamas‘ military forces.[38]

Israeli forces conducted airstrikes targeting Hamas military infrastructure near the Egyptian-Gaza Strip border in Rafah governorate. The airstrikes targeted buildings and other areas that the IDF said Hamas uses for smuggling weapons.[39] Hamas has historically used a system of tunnels to smuggle weapons into the Strip, rather than formal border crossings.[40]

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters in Tel Aviv that Israel will transition to the next phase of the war, which will focus on targeting leadership and intelligence operations rather than high-intensity clearance operations.[41] Sullivan was in Israel to meet with a number of Israeli officials, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.[42] Sullivan declined to specify a time frame for the end of high-intensity clearing operations to avoid “telegraph[ing] for the enemy what the plan is.”[43] A senior administration official said on background in a White House press briefing that ”reporting on timeframes” for the phases of the war was ”not entirely accurate.”[44] The New York Times cited four US officials on December 14 who claimed that Biden wanted the war to shift to a more targeted, narrow campaign in about three weeks.[45]

Palestinian militias conducted six indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel on December 15.[46] The al Qassem Brigades fired a barrage of long-range rockets at Jerusalem for the first time since October 22.[47] The al Quds Brigades claimed that it fired rockets at Jerusalem on December 1.[48] The al Quds Brigades claimed three rocket attacks into southern Israel on December 15 including at an Israeli military site.[49][50]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces three times in the West Bank on December 15.[51] This rate of activity is less than the daily average of 9.7 attacks per day. The Jenin Battalion of the al Quds Brigades claimed that it conducted an attack using small arms fire and explosives on Israeli forces at a checkpoint to Mevo Dotan.[52] The militia fighters also claimed that they placed an anti-personnel explosive device in an Israeli military vehicle and then detonated it.[53] This is the first time that the al Quds Brigades has claimed such an attack since the Israel-Hamas war began.

Hamas in the West Bank successfully organized protests in Nablus on December 15. Hamas distributed a flyer on December 14 calling for Palestinians in Nablus to protest after Friday prayers in support of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.[54] Palestinian sources published footage of marches in Nablus with Hamas flags and posters of Hamas fighters who had died since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.[55]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted 11 cross-border attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 15.[56] LH targeted Israeli military sites in northern Israel eight times, including two attacks using Burkan rockets.[57] The warheads for Burkan rockets range from 300 to 500 kilograms, making them a more lethal weapon system than the smaller rockets LH typically employs.[58] LH separately fired rockets and mortars at the IDF’s Ramim barracks in northern Israel.[59] The IDF said it intercepted a drone from southern Lebanon over Israeli airspace.[60] A second drone fell near an IDF post.[61]

LH published a summary of its attacks into Israel since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.[62] LH claimed that it has conducted over 500 operations in over 50 locations in northern Israel since October 8. LH’s attack claim is mostly consistent with CTP-ISW's documentation of approximately 440 total attacks since October 8.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for a one-way drone attack targeting US forces in Iraq on December 15. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq said that it targeted US forces at Ain al Assad airbase with a one-way drone.[63]

Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh met with interim Ninewa Governor Abdul Qadir al Dakhil on December 15 to discuss improving security in the province for the upcoming provincial elections.[64] Dakhil worked as head of the Supreme Council for the Reconstruction of Mosul. Kataib Hezbollah members also escorted Dakhil in Ninewa Province after Dakhil was appointed as acting governor.[65] Fayyadh and Dakhil’s meeting is notable in the context of other Iranian-backed proxy activity in Ninewa. The Kataib Hezbollah-affiliated 47th Brigade’s 2nd Regiment deployed to Sinjar, Ninewa province on December 14.[66] This regiment is reinforcing other 47th Brigade units that were ostensibly providing security for voting centers during the provincial elections. The Soufan Center reports that Iranian-backed militias intimidated voters during the 2021 federal elections.[67] Ninewa province locals warned that the militias prevented political opposition from registering to run for provincial elections.[68]

Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba (HHN) Secretary General Akram al Kaabi released a statement justifying resistance against the United States in Iraq following the arrest of unspecified individuals tied to the December 8 attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad.[69] Spokesperson for the Iraqi Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces Major General Yahya Rasool announced on December 14 that Iraqi security forces arrested individuals connected to the rocket and mortar attacks targeting the US Embassy.[70] US Ambassador to Iraq Alina Romanowski thanked Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani for arresting the individuals “responsible for the terrorist attacks” on the embassy.[71] Kaabi claimed that the United States stole resources and interfered in Iraq’s internal affairs and argued that he was justified and “expressing popular will” by conducting attacks on the United States.[72] He declared that if this made him a terrorist, then “let the world witness that I am a terrorist.” Kaabi is a Specially Designated Global Terrorist by the US Department of the Treasury.[73]

The Balochi Salafi-jihadi group Jaish al Adl conducted a two-stage attack targeting a police station in Rask, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on December 15.[74] The Jaish al Adl fighters raided the police station, which prompted Iran’s Law Enforcement Command to dispatch a quick reaction force (QRF). The fighters then laid an ambush targeting the QRF. The two-stage attack killed at least 11 LEC officers and injured eight more. The LEC killed two Jaish al Adl fighters during the attack. Jaish al Adl conducted a similar attack on a police station in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on July 8 that killed two LEC officers.[75] Jaish al Adl said after the July 8 attack that civil disobedience is insufficient to secure Balochi rights and it vowed to conduct more ”targeted and harmful” attacks in the future. Jaish al Adl issued threats against the regime in October 2022 following security forces’ violent suppression of protesters in Zahedan on September 30, 2022, an event that became known as “Bloody Friday.”[76]

The Iranian deputy foreign affairs minister discussed the Israel-Hamas war with his Chinese and Saudi counterparts in Beijing on December 15.[77] The deputy foreign affairs ministers of all three countries emphasized the need for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and an independent Palestinian state. The overall purpose of the meeting was to discuss recent progress in the Chinese-mediated normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf spoke on the phone with Algerian Assembly President Ibrahim Boughali about the Israel-Hamas war on December 15.[78] Ghalibaf reiterated his desire to hold a meeting of the Permanent Committee on Palestine to examine practical solutions for the Palestinian people. 

 

Iran Update, December 14, 2023

Click here to read the full report with maps

Ashka Jhaveri, Amin Soltani, Alexandra Braverman, Kathryn Tyson, Peter Mills, Johanna Moore, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces are engaged in intense fighting around Shujaiya and Zaytoun neighborhoods of Gaza city. Hamas is trying to defend against an Israeli advance toward Shujaiya from southern Gaza city.
2. Palestinian fighters continued to resist Israeli forces’ northeastward advance in Khan Younis.
3. Palestinian militias conducted two indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel.
4. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters nine times in the West Bank. Israeli forces concluded an over two-day-long operation in Jenin.
5. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for a one-way drone attack targeting US forces in Syria.
7. Iraqi military spokesperson Major General Yahya Rasoul claimed that Iraqi security services arrested “a number of perpetrators” responsible for the December 8 attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad.
8. The Houthis conducted a missile attack targeting the Danish-owned, Hong Kong-flagged Maersk Gibraltar container ship near the Bab al Mandeb.
9. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian continued his meetings with his foreign counterparts in Geneva.
10. European authorities arrested seven individuals linked to Hamas in Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands for allegedly planning terror attacks targeting Israeli and Jewish civilians in Europe.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces are engaged in intense fighting around Shujaiya and Zaytoun neighborhoods of Gaza city. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi told Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip that they are facing challenging terrain in these areas.[1] These remarks are unsurprising in part because Shujaiya is one of the most densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip.[2] Israeli forces searched on December 13 a school compound that Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion used.[3] Israeli forces also cleared nearby tunnels.[4]

The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—is trying to defend against an Israeli advance toward Shujaiya from southern Gaza city. The militia claimed to target Israeli forces with unspecified explosives in Shujaiya on December 14.[5] The militia also used rocket propelled grenades (RPGs) to target Israeli tanks and military vehicles in Shujaiya and Zaytoun.[6] Other Palestinian militias are operating in Shujaiya and Zaytoun neighborhoods to defend against Israeli advances as well. The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed that its fighters ambushed Israeli forces and targeted Israeli military vehicles in both neighborhoods.[7] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—clashed with Israeli forces in Shujaiya with unspecified weapons.[8]

The IDF announced on December 14 that Palestinian militias conducted a complex ambush on Israeli forces at some point in the past week in the Jabalia refugee camp. Palestinian fighters conducted small arms, anti-tank guided missile, and IED attacks from multiple directions targeting Israeli forces there.[9] Israeli forces also at some point in the past week conducted a drone strike on Palestinian fighters who were conducting anti-tank attacks in the camp.[10]

The IDF is using combined arms maneuver, involving dismounted infantry, armor, air, and reconnaissance elements, to degrade Hamas’ battalions in the Jabalia area.[11] The IDF destroyed militia infrastructure and found weapons in the Jabalia refugee camp in addition to directing a helicopter assault on a Hamas sniper position on December 13.[12]

Palestinian militias are attempting to resist Israeli advances west of Jabalia city. The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its fighters fired a thermobaric rocket targeting Israeli forces in a building in Sheikh Radwan neighborhood of Gaza city.[13] The militia separately claimed to target three Israeli tanks and two bulldozers with anti-tank munitions southwest of Jabalia city.[14]

 

Israeli forces detained 70 Palestinian militia fighters in the northern Gaza Strip on December 14. The IDF published documentation of Palestinians leaving the Kamal Adwan Hospital, some of whom carried weapons.[15] Israeli forces located buildings in the vicinity of the hospital that Hamas fighters used.[16] Israeli forces removed the detainees from the field for interrogations, which supports Israel in uncovering information regarding the locations of Hamas military infrastructure, according to the IDF.[17] The Hamas-run Health Ministry spokesperson accused Israel of preventing medical staff from providing care to ten injured people in the hospital.[18] Israel has repeatedly reported that Hamas uses hospitals for military activity.[19]

Israeli forces uncovered weapons inside a car near the house of senior Hamas member and spokesperson Mushir al Masri in Beit Lahiya during a raid several weeks ago.[20] The IDF found small arms and grenades inside the car in addition to a driver's license belonging to Masri.[21] The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson noted that the findings from the raid are evidence of how connected Hamas’ militant and political wings are.[22]

Palestinian militias continued attacks on Israeli forces behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. The al Quds Brigades shelled Israeli forces in Netzarim southwest of Gaza city.[23] The al Qassem Brigades targeted six Israeli tanks in the Beit Lahiya area north of Gaza city with anti-tank munitions.[24] The militia claimed its fighters used anti-personnel devices and small arms to target Israeli forces and military vehicles in addition to using rocket and mortars to attack Israeli combat outposts.[25]

Palestinian fighters continued to resist Israeli forces’ northeastward advance in Khan Younis. The al Qassem Brigades and al Quds Brigades claimed at least one combined mortar attack on advancing Israeli forces east of Khan Younis.[26] Hamas and PIJ leadership have coordinated closely against Israel throughout the war.[27] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades claimed that its fighters clashed with Israeli forces in Khan Younis.[28] Israeli forces conducted several raids in Khan Younis and destroyed tunnel shafts, a rocket launching site, and a weapons storage facility.[29]

Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh gave a televised address discussing the war on December 13.[30] Haniyeh said Hamas is certain that the Israeli clearing operations will end because of the Palestinian militia fighters’ capabilities. Haniyeh referenced the complex, multi-part ambush targeting an Israeli patrol and quick reaction force in Shujaiya on December 12 as evidence of the militias’ success. Haniyeh called for the establishment of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital and dismissed any arrangements for a post-war Gaza Strip without Hamas.[31]

Hamas representative to Lebanon told Iranian state media that Hamas is prepared for a prolonged fight in the Gaza Strip, which is consistent with Hamas and the Axis of Resistance consistently messaging that the defense of the Gaza Strip is sustainable. Hamas Representative Osama Hamdan gave an interview to Press TV, which is an English-language outlet that the Iranian regime uses for messaging to English-speaking audiences, on December 13.[32] The Wall Street Journal similarly reported on November 4 that Hamas has privately stated that its weapons arsenal can sustain a prolonged conflict.[33] The Lebanese foreign affairs minister claimed that Hamas told Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian shortly after the war began that it could fight for months without additional weapons.[34]

Palestinian militias conducted two indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel on December 14. The al Qassem Brigades and al Quds Brigades both claimed responsibility for separate attacks on Sufa in southern Israel.[35] The IDF reported on December 13 that Hamas has fired 116 rockets from the Israeli-declared al Mawasi humanitarian zone in southern the Gaza Strip into Israel.[36]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters nine times in the West Bank on December 14.[37] The al Qassem Brigades’ Qabatiya Battalion engaged Israeli forces in small arms clashes and detonated IEDs targeting these forces in Jenin.[38] Palestinian fighters also clashed with Israeli forces in the Jenin refugee camp.[39] Israeli forces conducted drone strikes in Jenin, which Palestinian authorities said killed at least two people.[40] Palestinian fighters separately clashed with Israeli forces in Beita, near Nablus.[41] The IDF said that it detained 14 individuals, including three Hamas fighters, in overnight raids across the West Bank.[42]

Israeli forces concluded an over two-day-long operation in Jenin on December 14. The IDF, Shin Bet, and Israeli Border Police have conducted widespread “counterterrorism” operations in Jenin since December 12.[43] The IDF said that it searched hundreds of buildings and detained over 60 wanted individuals for questioning.[44] The IDF said that it confiscated weapons and destroyed underground shafts, observation posts, and explosives laboratories.[45] The IDF said that it killed more than 10 ”terrorists” during its operations in Jenin.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 14.[46] This rate of attack marks a noteworthy dip from the average rate of 12 attacks per day since December 1. LH claimed three of the four attacks, which targeted Israeli military positions along the border.[47] Unidentified Palestinian fighters conducted one rocket attack into northern Israel targeting civilian areas.[48]

 

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for a one-way drone attack targeting US forces in Syria on December 14.[49] The group claimed that it targeted US forces at al Shaddadi, Hasakah Province, Syria. The group has claimed 11 previous attacks on al Shaddadi since the Israel-Hamas war began.

Iraqi military spokesperson Major General Yahya Rasoul claimed that Iraqi security services arrested “a number of perpetrators” responsible for the December 8 attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad.[50] Rasoul stated that Iraqi security services also arrested individuals who provided logistical and other unspecified forms of support to the perpetrators. Rasoul previously claimed on December 9 that an investigative team would work with local authorities to identify and arrest individuals responsible for the attacks.[51] Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani ordered the establishment of a working group to investigate the attacks on December 9.[52] US officials have urged the Iraqi central government to protect US personnel in Iraq, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[53]

The Houthis conducted a missile attack targeting the Danish-owned, Hong Kong-flagged Maersk Gibraltar container ship near the Bab al Mandeb on December 14. The Houthi Navy initially directed the Gibraltar to alter course to Yemen before firing a missile at the ship.[54] The Houthi military spokesperson claimed that the Houthis also launched a drone to target the ship, although there is no evidence to support this claim.[55] US Central Command stated that there were no injuries or damage from the missile attack.[56] A US official similarly told the Associated Press that the Houthi missile missed its target.[57] The Houthis threatened on December 9 and 12 to expand their attacks on maritime traffic around the Red Sea to include all vessels traveling to Israel.[58] Western media reported that ship was headed to Jedda, Saudi Arabia.[59]

The UKMTO reported that unknown actors boarded an unspecified vessel 700 nautical miles east of the coast of Bosaso, Somalia on December 14.[60] The UKMTO reported that it received a distress call from the vessel as it was boarded. It is unclear what party was responsible for the boarding at this time.

Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Gharaei Ashtiani warned the United States against getting involved in the Red Sea on December 14.[61] Ashtiani stated the “foolish” decision by the United States to create a multi-national naval task force in the Red Sea would “face extraordinary problems”.[62] Ashtiani stated there is no more room in the region for outsiders to establish a presence. Ashtiani was responding to the United States discussing establishing an international naval task force to safeguard commercial shipping around the Red Sea.[63]

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian continued his meetings with his foreign counterparts in Geneva on December 14. Abdollahian met with his Japanese counterpart, the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government’s interior minister, and the UN high commissioner for refugees.[64] Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war in each of these meetings. Abdollahian also held a phone call with his Brazilian counterpart on December 14 to discuss bilateral relations and the Israel Hamas war.[65]

European authorities arrested seven individuals linked to Hamas in Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands on December 14 for allegedly planning terror attacks targeting Israeli and Jewish civilians in Europe. German federal prosecutors reported that the four individuals arrested in Berlin and the Netherlands had long-standing ties to Hamas’ military wing, the al Qassem Brigades.[66] Hamas leaders based in Lebanon tasked these individuals with procuring weapons for terror attacks against Jewish institutions, according to German prosecutors.[67] Danish intelligence stated that the three individuals arrested in Denmark were preparing a terror attack but did not release further details.[68] The Israeli prime minister’s office stated that the seven arrested individuals were acting on behalf of Hamas and that Mossad would continue to assist partners around in the world in countering terrorist activity.[69]

 

Iran Update, December 13, 2023

Click here to read the full report with maps

Brian Carter, Andie Parry, Peter Mills, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, Alexandra Braverman, and Johanna Moore

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

Key Takeaways:

1. Hamas conducted a complex, multi-part ambush targeting an Israeli patrol and quick reaction force in Shujaiya’s kasbah on December 12.
2. Israeli forces are continuing to degrade Hamas forces by targeting military infrastructure and weapons caches throughout the Gaza Strip.
3. Hamas published a video of its fighters engaging Israeli forces from a school in Khan Younis. The video is notable as Hamas claims that its military forces do not use civilian infrastructure for military operations.
4. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters 19 times in the West Bank.
5. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted ten attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
6. The Israeli Air Force conducted an airstrike targeting Syrian Arab Army military infrastructure and positions within Syrian territory on December 12 according to a post from the IDF.
7. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for two one-way drone attacks targeting US positions in Syria.
8. The Houthis fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles targeting a Marshall Islands-flagged vessel after Houthi fighters failed to hijack the ship.  

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Hamas conducted a complex, multi-part ambush targeting an Israeli patrol and quick reaction force (QRF) in Shujaiya’s kasbah on December 12.[1] Hamas ambushed an Israeli fireteam entering a three-building complex during Israeli clearing operations in Shujaiya. Hamas fighters detonated an IED and fired small arms at the Israeli fireteam during the initial ambush.[2] Israeli forces nearby lost contact with the Israeli fireteam inside the building and launched a QRF to rescue the fireteam.[3] One Israeli force moved north of the three-building complex, while another moved south.[4] Hamas fighters continued to attack the QRF by setting off IEDs and throwing grenades at Israeli forces.[5] Israel recovered the bodies of the Israeli fireteam, but five additional Israeli soldiers died during the rescue operation including a battalion commander, three company commanders, and the “head of the Golani Brigade’s forward command team.”[6]

Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion remains capable of executing its defense mission in Shujaiya, indicating that it is not combat ineffective. Several Israeli military sources, including the Israeli defense minister, have said since December 11 that Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion is “dismantled” and lost its “command and control” capabilities.[7] The complex, multi-part nature of this ambush requires significant coordination between multiple Hamas tactical units. This suggests that at least some elements of Hamas‘ Shujaiya Battalion remain able to conduct military operations to defend Shujaiya.

Israeli forces are continuing to degrade Hamas forces by targeting military infrastructure and weapons caches throughout the Gaza Strip. The IDF said that its ground, air, and naval forces had attacked over 250 militant and infrastructure targets across the Gaza Strip on December 13.[8] The Israeli Defense Minister said on December 12 that Israeli troops had now descended deep underground to locate Hamas bunkers, command centers, communication rooms and weapon storage sites.[9] Israeli forces used drones to conduct reconnaissance of tunnels underneath Gaza city at the beginning of the ground operation.[10]

Palestinian militias claimed that they fired small arms targeting Israeli forces along the Israeli line of advance in the northern Gaza Strip on December 13. The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed that its fighters clashed with Israeli forces in the Sheikh Radwan, Rimal, Shujaiya, and Zaytoun neighborhoods.[11] The al Qassem Brigades and al Quds Brigades fighters said that they ambushed Israeli forces in the Mughraqa area.[12] The Al Nasser Salah al Din Brigades—the militant wing of the Popular Resistance Committees—also said that it targeted Israeli forces with small arms fire and improvised explosive devices in the Shujaiya and Zaytoun neighborhoods.[13] National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—claimed that it detonated IEDs and fired small arms targeting Israeli forces in Shujaiya.[14] 

The al Qassem Brigades is attempting to defend against an Israeli advance towards Shujaiya from southern Gaza City. The al Qassem Brigades posted a video showing its forces detonating an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) targeting an Israeli tank in Zaytoun, southwest of Shujaiya.[15] The militia also shelled Israeli command posts with rockets and mortars in southern Gaza city.[16] The brigades did not provide any proof that their attacks were successful in either destroying Israeli armor or hitting Israeli command posts.

Israeli forces continued targeting Hamas’ military infrastructure during clearing operations in Khan Younis. Israeli forces destroyed Hamas operations centers and outposts in Bani Suheila, east of Khan Younis City.[17] Other Israeli units discovered “significant” tunnel shafts.[18]

Hamas published a video of its fighters engaging Israeli forces from a school in Khan Younis. The IDF also said that it raided a school in Khan Younis after Palestinian fighters fired at IDF forces from the same school.[19] Hamas published a video of its fighters firing at IDF forces from the same school.[20] Hamas‘ video is notable in the context of the group’s repeated claims that its military forces do not use civilian infrastructure for military operations.[21] The IDF also said that it discovered and destroyed an underground complex close to the school.[22]

Hamas and other Palestinian militias are attempting to blunt the Israeli advance in Khan Younis. Al Quds Brigades fighters east of Khan Younis mortared Israeli forces near the al Zalal Mosque, and the al Qassem Brigades fired rocket-propelled grenades and detonated EFPs targeting Israeli tanks east of Khan Younis city.[23] Al Qassem Brigades fighters also detonated EFPs and conducted hit-and-run attacks targeting Israeli armor north of the city.[24] Al Qassem Brigades fighters attacked Israeli forces advancing in western Khan Younis city with mortars.[25]

The IDF advised residents in central Khan Younis to evacuate towards al Zuhor, al Shaboura, and Tal al Sultan in Rafah governorate on December 13.[26]

Hamas stated its terms for freeing the Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip. Hamas National Relations official and former al Qassem Brigades senior leader Mahmoud Mardawi stated that Israel must withdraw its forces from the Gaza Strip and commit to a ceasefire before negotiations can resume on prisoner swaps and unspecified other issues.[27] Mardawi confirmed that Hamas is in contact with third-party mediators.[28] The al Qassem Brigades released a propaganda poster on December 12 with the words “without a conditional exchange [the prisoners] will not emerge alive,” which is part of an information operation that aims to undermine Israeli public support for the ground operation in the Gaza Strip.[29] Israeli forces recovered the bodies of two hostages held in the Gaza Strip on December 12.[30]

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted five indirect fire attacks into Israel on December 13. The al Quds Brigades and the al Qassem Brigades both claimed responsibility for two attacks in southern Israel.[31] The National Resistance Brigades claimed responsibility for a rocket attack targeting an Israeli military site in southern Israel.[32]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters 19 times in the West Bank.[33] Thirteen of those clashes occurred in Jenin Governate.[34] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade—a self-affiliated militant wing of Fatah—claimed two attacks targeting Israeli forces in Jenin and one attack on an IDF checkpoint near Nablus.[35] The al Qassem Brigades claimed that it detonated an IED targeting an IDF vehicle during Israeli operations in Jenin.[36] The IDF reported that it has searched 400 buildings, captured six IED manufacturing facilities, and arrested hundreds of individuals in Jenin since December 12.[37]  

Hamas circulated flyers in the West Bank calling for a mass protest on December 15 under the slogan of “victory for Gaza.”[38] Hamas condemned Israeli operations in Jenin and claimed that the IDF arrested at least 120 individuals in Jenin.[39] Hamas framed Israeli operations in Jenin as an extension of Israel’s ”comprehensive war against our people [Palestinians]”.[40] PIJ stated that its forces in Jenin would continue to escalate against Israel alongside other Palestinian militia groups.[41]

A Palestinian think tank reported survey results showing that Palestinian support for Hamas in the West Bank has tripled since September.[42] The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research reported that support for Hamas in the West Bank has increased from 12 percent in September to 44 percent in December.[43] The director of the center added in November that the hostage/prisoner release deal between Hamas and Israel was the most important factor increasing support for Hamas. The center said that Palestinian support for armed groups in the West Bank has increased in response to Israeli settler attacks from 47 percent in September to 56 percent in December.[44]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted ten attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 13.[45] LH claimed six attacks targeting Israeli military positions along the border.[46] Unidentified Palestinian fighters conducted four separate rocket attacks into northern Israel targeting civilian areas.[47]

The Israeli Air Force conducted an airstrike targeting Syrian Arab Army military infrastructure and positions within Syrian territory on December 12 according to a post from the IDF.[48]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for two one-way drone attacks targeting US positions in Syria on December 13. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a single drone attack targeting US forces stationed at the al Tanf garrison.[49] The group has claimed eight attacks against al Tanf since October 19. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq also claimed a single drone attack targeting US forces stationed at Rukban.[50] The group has claimed two attacks against Rukban since October 23.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah (KH) announced on December 12 that it will support “righteous” and “jihadist” candidates in the upcoming provincial council elections on December 18.[51] KH defined these candidates as individuals who “provide services” to Iraqi citizens and defend citizens’ “rights and dignity.” Iraqi provincial councils are authorized to appoint and remove governors, approve provincial director-general positions, and approve provincial security plans.[52] KH reiterated that its political party, Harakat Hoquq, will not be running in the provincial elections.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned Iranian-backed Iraqi militias’ attacks on US forces and diplomatic personnel in Iraq and Syria during a phone call with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani on December 13.[53]  Blinken emphasized Iran’s support for these militias and stated that the attacks undermine Iraq’s sovereignty and independence. Blinken thanked Sudani for referring to recent attacks as “acts of terrorism” and for his pledge to pursue the perpetrators of the December 8 rocket and mortar attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad.

The Houthis fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles targeting a Marshall Islands-flagged vessel on December 13 after Houthi fighters failed to hijack the ship.  The UK Maritime Transit Operations authority reported that a small boat carrying three armed individuals approached the M/T Ardmore Encounter and directed the Encounter to alter course to Yemen.[54] An armed security team aboard the Encounter fired warning shots at the boat, causing it to flee.[55] The Houthis then fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles which hit the water within 200 meters of the Encounter.[56] The Ardmore Encounter is a Marshall Islands-flagged commercial tanker carrying jet fuel from India.[57] The US destroyer USS Mason shot down a Houthi-operated drone while responding to the Houthi attack on the Encounter.[58] Key Houthi powerbroker and Member of the Houthi Supreme Political Council Mohammad Ali al Houthi advised ships in the Red Sea not to cut off their communications systems and to quickly follow the orders of the Houthi Navy.[59] The Houthis threatened on December 9 and 12 to expand their attacks on maritime traffic around the Red Sea to include all vessels traveling to Israel.[60] CTP-ISW cannot determine if the Encounter was traveling to Israel.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog said on December 13 that the Houthis “crossed a red line” in the Red Sea.[61] Herzog called for strengthening the US-led international coalition in the Red Sea to prevent the Houthis from posing a threat to international trade.[62] The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States is pushing allies and partners to reinforce a pre-existing task force, Combined Task Force 153, which is responsible for international maritime security in the Red Sea.[63]

An Israeli OSINT social media account reported that an IRGC-affiliated cargo transport plane landed in Moscow on December 13.[64] The airliner is operated by Pouya Air, which the United States and European Union sanctioned in 2011 and 2023 for transferring military materials throughout the Middle East behalf of the IRGC Quds Force.[65] Flightradar24 data shows that a Pouya Air-operated Ilyushin Il-76 transport plane departed from Tehran on December 13.[66] Flightradar24 incorrectly reported that a Pouya Air aircraft flew to Russian-occupied Crimea on September 7.[67]

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian held separate meetings with his counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan and Lebanon during the World Refugee Forum in Geneva on December 13.[68] Abdollahian reiterated calls for an immediate ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war and highlighted the need for increased humanitarian support for Palestinians in Gaza.[69] This is part of the Iranian effort to rally support against Israel among the Arab and Islamic worlds.

Iran Update, December 12, 2023

Click here to read the full report with maps

Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Brian Carter, Kathryn Tyson, Annika Ganzeveld, Alexandra Braverman, Peter Mills, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

Key Takeaways: 

1. Palestinian militias are attempting to resist Israeli advances north and east of Khan Younis. The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson reiterated orders to residents in Khan Younis and the northern Gaza Strip to evacuate using the Salah al Din Road to Deir al Balah in the central Gaza Strip.
2. Israeli forces are likely degrading Hamas’ capacity to conduct indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel. The number of indirect fire attacks conducted daily by Hamas has decreased significantly since October, which is consistent with the assessed degradation of Hamas’ indirect fire capacity.
3. The IDF reported that Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Shujaiya, Zaytoun, and Jabalia over the past week. Palestinian militias continued attacks on Israeli forces advancing in Shujaiya neighborhood.
4. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters 17 times in the West Bank.
5. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 11 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
6. The Houthis conducted an anti-ship cruise missile attack on the Norwegian tanker STRINDA around the Bab al Mandeb.
7. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for two attacks targeting US positions in eastern Syria.
8. Iranian and Iraqi judicial officials discussed prosecuting the “perpetrators” of the January 2020 US airstrike that killed then-IRGC Quds Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani as part of the broader Iranian effort to undermine anti-Iran elements of the Iraqi Security Forces.
9. The secretary general of the Iranian-backed Iraqi Badr Organization, Hadi al Ameri, called on the Iraqi central government to expel the US-led international coalition from Iraq.
10. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war in separate phone calls with his Russian and Chinese counterparts.

 

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip.
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian militias are attempting to resist Israeli advances north and east of Khan Younis. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed that it detonated multiple claymore-type, anti-personnel mines targeting ten Israeli soldiers east of Khan Younis.[1] The militia also claimed that it inflicted five casualties during a small arms clash with Israeli forces along the Israeli forward line of advance in al Qarara, north of Khan Younis .[2] The al Qassem Brigades separately mortared Israeli soldiers advancing north and east of Khan Younis.[3] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed that it conducted four mortar and rocket attacks on Israeli forces advancing into Khan Younis. Al Quds Brigades fighters fired tandem-charge rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) at an Israeli armored personnel carrier east of Khan Younis.[4] The National Resistance Brigade—the militant wing of Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—used mortars against Israeli forces advancing east of Khan Younis.[5] Residents published footage of audible small arms fire east of Khan Younis on December 12.[6] The BBC reported on December 11 that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had captured most of the four main towns east of Khan Younis.[7]

The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson reiterated orders to residents in Khan Younis and the northern Gaza Strip to evacuate using the Salah al Din Road to Deir al Balah in the central Gaza Strip.[8]

Israeli forces are likely degrading Hamas’ capacity to conduct indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel. Israeli forces have captured large Hamas weapons caches as they have advanced around and into Khan Younis over the past week.[9] Israeli forces, for instance, captured a Hamas weapon cache that included approximately 250 rockets, mortars, and RPGs.[10] The Givati Brigade destroyed a weapons factory in the Khan Younis area.[11] The Israeli 162nd Division identified a rocket launcher site while Palestinian militants attempted to launch rockets at Sderot and directed an airstrike at the site on December 12.[12] Israeli forces have discovered other rocket launchers and rockets during clearing operations in the Gaza Strip throughout the ground operation as well.[13] An unspecified senior military source told Israeli Army Radio on December 10 that Hamas has ”hundreds” of medium- and long-range rockets left in its arsenal, however.[14]

The number of indirect fire attacks conducted daily by the al Qassem Brigades has decreased significantly since October, which is consistent with the assessed degradation of Hamas’ indirect fire capacity. The al Qassem Brigades has conducted on average about two indirect fire attacks per day since December 6. The al Qassem Brigades claimed an average of about eight attacks per day on Israel between December 1 and December 6, which immediately followed the expiration of the humanitarian pause. This rate demonstrates a noteworthy drop from the average of 12 attacks per day between October 11 and October 16 in the early days of the war.

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted at least four indirect fire attacks into Israel on December 12. The al Quds Brigades claimed responsibility for one attack in southern Israel.[15] The National Resistance Brigades claimed responsibility for a rocket attack targeting an Israeli military site in southern Israel.[16] Israeli Army Radio reported red alerts in two towns surrounding the Gaza Strip on December 12, although it is unclear whether there were attacks in these areas.[17]

The IDF reported on December 12 that Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Shujaiya, Zaytoun, and Jabalia over the past week. The IDF reported that its units in these areas have clashed with Palestinian fighters, destroyed tunnels, and seized explosives and weapons.[18] The IDF also reported that it seized memory cards storing unspecified Hamas data about the October 7 attack into Israel. These continued operations in these areas are consistent with the stated IDF priority of clearing Shujaiya and Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip. Clearing operations of the sort that the IDF is conducting frequently take weeks, if not months, to complete.[19]

Palestinian militias continued attacks on Israeli forces advancing in Shujaiya neighborhood on December 12. The al Qassem Brigades claimed that it detonated unspecified anti-armor improvised explosive devices targeting seven IDF vehicles.[20] The group said that it killed the crew of one armored personnel carrier. The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its fighters killed several Israeli soldiers who attempted to help the crew of one stricken Israeli tank.[21] The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its fighters killed 11 Israelis during fighting in Shujaiya and seized Israeli equipment.[22]

Palestinian militias continued attacks on Israeli forces behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. The al Quds Brigades claimed that its fighters and al Qassem Brigades fighters conducted a combined attack targeting an Israeli position in a house in the Fallujah area of Jabalia refugee camp on December 12.[23] The al Qassem Brigades separately fired a thermobaric rocket targeting Israeli troops in Sheikh Radwan neighborhood on December 12.[24]

The IDF said on December 12 that its navy has destroyed several unmanned submarines in the Gaza Strip and its surrounding waters throughout the Israel-Hamas war.[25] The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson published a graphic of several Hamas naval personnel whom the IDF has killed during the war.[26] The spokesperson said Israel has killed most of the leaders of Hamas’ naval force and hundreds of Hamas members specializing in naval warfare.[27]

Israeli forces recovered the bodies of two hostages held in the Gaza Strip.[28] The IDF said its forces sustained casualties during an operation to identify the locations of the bodies.[29] The Israeli prime minister’s office revised the number of hostages in the Gaza Strip from 137 to 135.[30]

Anonymous US officials reported that Israeli forces began flooding Hamas tunnels in the Gaza Strip with seawater to degrade Hamas’ underground network. US officials briefed on Israeli military operations told the Wall Street Journal that the IDF had started its plan, according to the Wall Street Journal on December 12.[31] Israel previously informed the United States in early November that it was considering flooding the tunnels and that Israel assembled at least five pumps north of Shati refugee camp in mid-November.[32]

Israel opened the Kerem Shalom crossing in southern Israel to screen humanitarian aid going into the Gaza Strip. Israel will screen the aid before it enters the Gaza Strip via the Rafah crossing with Egypt.[33] The United Nations, international aid agencies, and Palestinian relief workers have warned of spreading hunger in the Gaza Strip.[34]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters 17 times in the West Bank. Fourteen of those clashes occurred in Jenin Governate.[35] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade—a self-affiliated militant wing of Fatah—fired small arms and detonated IEDs targeting Israeli forces in Jenin.[36] An IDF drone strike killed four al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades fighters who were attacking Israeli forces in Jenin.[37] Palestinian fighters also fired small arms and threw IEDs at Israeli forces in three nearby towns, as Israeli forces approached Jenin.[38] The IDF reported that it seized small arms and bomb-making equipment and disabled IEDs in Jenin.[39] Palestinian media reported that Israeli forces arrested 70 individuals in Jenin.[40] CTP-ISW separately observed three demonstrations in Hebron against Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip.[41]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted 11 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 12.[42] The attacks targeted primarily military positions. Unspecified fighters launched one rocket salvo targeting the town of Kiryat Shmona.[43] Israeli media separately reported that an anti-tank guided missile hit a civilian building in Baram, northern Israel.[44] LH claimed eight of the 11 attacks into northern Israel.[45]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Houthis conducted an anti-ship cruise missile attack on the Norwegian tanker STRINDA around the Bab al Mandeb on December 11.[46] The Houthi spokesperson claimed the attack on December 12.[47] CENTCOM said that the missile was launched from Houthi-controlled territory and that the attack caused a fire but did not result in any injuries.[48] CENTCOM also said that the USS Mason provided assistance to the STRINDA after the attack. The French FREMM Multi-Mission Frigate Languedoc also said that it “intervened” in a drone attack on the STRINDA while patrolling off the coast of Yemen on December 11.[49] The STRINDA’s owner reported that the tanker was carrying feedstock for biofuel and headed to Italy through the Suez Canal.[50] The Houthi spokesperson contrastingly claimed that the tanker was carrying oil to Israel and that the Houthis fired on the tanker after its crew ignored their warnings.[51] The attack follows a Houthi threat on December 9 to expand their attacks on maritime traffic around the Red Sea to include all vessels traveling to Israel.[52]

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for two attacks targeting US positions in eastern Syria on December 12. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed separate rocket attacks targeting US forces at al Omar oil field and Conoco Mission Support Site in Deir ez Zor Province.[53] The group has claimed four attacks on al Omar oil field and seven attacks on Conoco since the Israel-Hamas war began.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq resumed its attacks on US forces on December 3, two days after the humanitarian pause in the Gaza Strip expired on December 1.[54] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq escalated further on December 8 by conducting more attacks than usual on US forces, claiming responsibility for eleven attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria.[55]

Iranian and Iraqi judicial officials discussed prosecuting the “perpetrators” of the January 2020 US airstrike that killed then-IRGC Quds Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani as part of the broader Iranian effort to undermine anti-Iran elements of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF).[56] Iranian Judiciary Deputy Chief for International Affairs Kazem Gharib Abadi called on the Iraqi judiciary to “accelerate” its investigation into the airstrike during a meeting Iraqi judicial officials in Tehran on December 5. Gharib Abadi also called on the Iraqi judiciary to submit its indictments to an Iraqi court to begin the prosecution of the “perpetrators” of the strike. Iran and its Iraqi proxies and partners have repeatedly attempted to target Iraqi security officials whom they believe were involved in the January 2020 US airstrike. Iranian-backed Iraqi factions have targeted actors close to former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi, in particular. Kataib Hezbollah has accused Kadhimi of assisting the United States in the airstrike.[57] Kadhimi removed Iranian-backed actors from the Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INIS) and the Iraqi National Security Service (NSS) during his tenure to make these organizations more effective.[58] These efforts caused Iran and its local proxies and partners to view the INIS and NSS as threats to the Iranian project in Iraq. NSS spokesman Arshad al Hakim notably announced that “outlaw groups” damaged the NSS's headquarters at the same time as the mortar and rocket attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 8.[59]

The December 5 meeting between Iranian and Iraq officials is noteworthy given the ongoing efforts by Iranian-backed Iraqi actors to use legal and political pressure to expel the US forces from Iraq.[60] The present conditions in the Iraqi political landscape are reminiscent of the conditions in 2020-21, when Iranian-backed Iraqi factions conducted a similar effort to remove US forces. The Iraqi Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee announced on December 6, 2023, a draft resolution to expel US forces from Iraq in response to US self-defense strikes on Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.[61] The Iraqi parliament similarly passed a resolution on January 5, 2020, calling on the Iraqi prime minister to order the withdrawal of “all foreign troops” Iraq.[62] Iranian-backed Iraqi fighters have additionally increased their rate of attacks on US forces since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023 to a level that CTP-ISW has not observed since 2020.[63]

The secretary general of the Iranian-backed Iraqi Badr Organization, Hadi al Ameri, called on the Iraqi central government to expel the US-led international coalition from Iraq during a campaign speech in Wasit Governate, eastern Iraq, on December 12.[64] Ameri emphasized that the Iraqi Army, Popular Mobilization Forces, and Federal Police can defend Iraq without foreign support, implying that US forces are no longer necessary to fight ISIS. Ameri’s statement follows the Iraqi Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee’s announcement on December 6 that it has drafted a resolution to expel US forces from Iraq.[65] The head of this committee is notably a member of the Badr Organization.[66]

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war in separate phone calls with his Russian and Chinese counterparts on December 11 and 12.[67] Both Abdollahian and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasized the need for an immediate ceasefire and international assistance to civilians in the Gaza Strip. The Russian Foreign Ministry also announced that the two ministers agreed to accelerate work on an unspecified “new and big” bilateral agreement.[68] Moscow and Tehran have significantly deepened their strategic partnership in recent years, as Iran has provided military support to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Abdollahian separately warned that if Israel does not stop its attacks on the Gaza Strip, “there is a possibility that an explosion will occur in the region and all sides will lose control” during his call with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Abdollahian added that the United States is unable to grasp the risk that the Israel-Hamas war might spill over across the Middle East.[69]Abdollahian has repeated this rhetoric almost daily since the war began, warning that the war could expand if the United States and Israel do not pursue a permanent ceasefire.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian arrived in Geneva for the three-day World Refugee Forum on December 12.[70] Abdollahian plans to discuss the Israel-Hamas war with other foreign officials on the sidelines of the forum.[71]

 

Iran Update, December 11, 2023

Click here to read the full report with maps.

Brian Carter, Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, Kathryn Tyson, Andie Parry, Peter Mills, and Alexandra Braverman

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces are degrading Hamas’ battalions in Shujaiya and Jabalia.
2. Palestinian militias continued to resist Israeli advances in Khan Younis. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted seven indirect fire attacks into Israel.
3. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters nine times in the West Bank.
4. Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias attacked nine Israeli towns and military positions.
5. Top Israeli security and military officials discussed how to deal with the threats on Israel’s northern border.
6. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba Political Council called for simultaneous political and military actions to expel the United States from Iraq.
7. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks on US positions in Iraq and Syria.
8. US officials are continuing to pressure the Iraqi central government to protect US personnel in Iraq.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces are degrading Hamas’ battalions in Shujaiya and Jabalia. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on December 11 that Hamas’ Jabalia and Shujaiya Battalions are “on the verge of being dismantled.”[1] CTP-ISW defines “degrade” as a temporary effect whereby a unit’s losses seriously impede its ability to continue executing assigned missions while the unit remains able to operate.[2] Israeli forces captured Hamas military infrastructure in Jabalia, including explosives manufacturing facilities, training facilities, and weapons caches.[3] The loss of these facilities will temporarily negatively affect Hamas’ Jabalia al Balad Battalion’s ability to execute its assigned missions, which include using improvised explosive devices and rocket-propelled grenades to resist Israeli advances.

Palestinian fighters are continuing to resist Israeli advances in Shujaiya and Jabalia. The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—detonated an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) targeting an Israeli military vehicle as it advanced in Shujaiya on December 11.[4] The al Quds Brigades also attacked Israeli infantry at close range in Shujaiya.[5]  An Israeli journalist embedded with the IDF’s Kfir Brigade in Shujaiya reported that Hamas forces in Shujaiya are ”waging a guerrilla war” and have not ”abandoned the fight,” suggesting elements of Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion remain combat effective.[6]

Israeli forces are also continuing their advance in southern Beit Lahiya, north of Jabalia city and camp. The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its fighters fired a thermobaric rocket targeting Israeli special forces in a building in the Beit Lahia Project area.[7]

Palestinian fighters are continuing to attack Israeli forces behind the Israeli forward line of troops, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. Al Quds Brigades fighters sniped two Israeli soldiers near Zaytoun on December 10.[8]

Palestinian militias continued to resist Israeli advances in Khan Younis. The al Qassem Brigades claimed three mortar attacks on Israeli forces as Israeli units advanced north and east of Khan Younis.[9] The militia claimed that it targeted an Israeli combat outpost in one of the attacks.[10] The al Qassem Brigades separately claimed that it targeted two Israeli tanks north of Khan Younis using anti-tank munitions.[11] The al Quds Brigades claimed two mortar attacks on Israeli forces in Khan Younis.[12] The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—clashed with Israeli forces in the western Satar area north of Khan Younis.[13] The Israeli media outlet Ynet News reported on December 11 that a militia fighter used a tunnel entrance inside a building to plant and detonate an anti-personnel device near Israeli forces in al Qarara, northeast of Khan Younis.[14]

Israeli Defense Minister Gallant noted that Hamas is “still organized militarily” in the southern Gaza Strip.[15] The BBC reported that Israeli tanks are advancing slowly and approaching the eastern part of Khan Younis where Israel has reportedly captured four villages.[16] The IDF reported on December 11 that it has supplied seven tons of logistical supplies to its forces currently fighting in Khan Younis.[17] Israeli forces have been operating in Khan Younis to target Palestinian militia strongholds and leaders for the past week.[18]

Israeli forces have detained more than 500 Palestinian militia fighters in the Gaza Strip in the last month. The IDF reported on December 11 that it has detained more than 350 Hamas fighters and more than 120 PIJ fighters, some of whom were taken for further investigation in Israel.[19] The Human Rights Watch director for Israel and Palestine told the Washington Post that Israel’s Unlawful Combatants Law allows Israel to hold Palestinians from the Gaza Strip ”in what is effectively administrative detention, a form of incarceration without charge or trial that authorities can renew indefinitely.“[20] An anonymous Israeli security official told the Wall Street Journal that the IDF assumes that military-aged males remaining in evacuated areas are militia fighters, as they have issued several evacuation orders to residents.[21] Residents told the Wall Street Journal that the IDF is detaining military-aged males for questioning.[22]

The Wall Street Journal reported that Yahya Sinwar “cut off communications” with negotiators ”to pressure Israel to agree to a pause to” allow Hamas to “regroup.”[23] Sinwar told Egyptian negotiators that the war will “last for weeks.”

UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)’s communications director reported a near “total breakdown of civil order” around its aid deliveries in the Gaza Strip, which is consistent with previous reports about governance breakdown in the strip.[24] The policy lead at Oxfam—an anti-poverty non-profit—said the situation in the Gaza Strip was “absolute chaos” on November 28.[25] The Associated Press also reported that Gazans in the southern Strip were “openly challenging” Hamas’ authority on November 12.[26]

The UNRWA communications director also said that UNRWA takes reports of Hamas members using UNRWA facilities and assets “very, very seriously.”[27] The director added that UNRWA struggles to get information from northern Gaza due to a lack of access, however.

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted seven indirect fire attacks into Israel on December 11. The al Qassem Brigades claimed responsibility for three rocket attacks, including two at Tel Aviv.[28] The al Quds Brigades claimed responsibility for three attacks in southern Israel.[29] The National Resistance Brigades claimed responsibility for a rocket attack targeting an Israeli military site in southern Israel.[30]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters nine times in the West Bank on December 11.[31] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade—a self-affiliated militant wing of Fatah—fired small arms and detonated IEDs targeting Israeli forces in Mount Gerizim, near Nablus.[32] The al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades fired small arms targeting Israeli forces in two separate attacks near Jenin.[33] Unspecified Palestinian fighters fired on an Israeli settlement in the northern West Bank and also fired across the West Bank-Israel border towards an Israeli settlement.[34]

West Bank residents held widespread strikes across the West Bank on December 11. CTP-ISW recorded 26 strikes across the West Bank, including in major cities such as Hebron, Jenin, and Jerusalem.[35] The strikes come after Palestinian activists and organizations called on December 10 for a global strike in response to Israel’s invasion of the Gaza Strip.[36] The strikes also followed a call by Hamas for strikes in the West Bank on December 10.[37] Hamas has repeatedly called for an escalation of anti-Israel demonstrations and attacks in the West Bank in recent weeks, but these calls have not previously generated increased attacks or demonstrations.[38]

West Bank residents held two anti-Israel demonstrations in Qalqilya and Hebron on December 11.[39]

Israeli sources are framing the West Bank as a supporting effort for the IDF’s main effort in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli Army Radio reported that the IDF will reduce its forces guarding settlements in the West Bank by at least a quarter “soon,” citing an unspecified source.[40] The Israeli Army Radio said that an IDF spokesperson responded to the report and said that Israel is working to ”preserve the longevity and competence” of the IDF over time.[41] The Israeli defense minister added separately that IDF operations in the West Bank are secondary to the Gaza Strip, but that Israel is taking steps to ”prevent an escalation” in the West Bank.[42]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and other Iranian-backed militias attacked nine Israeli towns and military positions on December 11. LH claimed seven attacks on Israeli military positions in northern Israel.[43]  Israeli and Palestinian media reported two other attacks that hit civilian targets in northern Israel, including the non-evacuated town of Maalot Tarshiha.[44] LH fired anti-tank guided munitions at Israeli forces in Metulla.[45] LH said that the attack was in retaliation for IDF shelling that LH claimed killed a southern Lebanese mayor.[46] LH fired Burkan rockets at one Israeli military site.[47] The warheads for Burkan rockets range from 300 to 500 kilograms, making them a more lethal weapon system than the smaller rockets LH usually employs.[48]

Top Israeli security and military officials discussed how to deal with the threats on Israel’s northern border on December 11. Israeli war cabinet minister and former defense minister Benny Gantz discussed security in northern Israel in a phone call with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.[49] Gantz said he conveyed that LH’s heightened aggression and attacks mean that Israel must “remove” the threat from northern Israel.[50] Gantz’s statement singled out the Lebanese state, not just LH, and called for international pressure on Lebanon to stop attacks on its southern border.[51] Gantz’s statement is likely a request for Lebanon to hold LH to UNSC Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War and created a demilitarized zone in Lebanon between the Blue Line and the Litani River.[52] Israeli officials have called for Lebanon to enforce the UNSC Resolution in recent days through either diplomatic or military means.[53] Separately, the Israeli defense minister said that he is making every effort to prevent an escalation in northern Israel.[54]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

Israel conducted an airstrike targeting IRGC headquarters in Sayyida Zainab, Damascus, and Damascus International Airport on December 10.[55] IDF airstrikes killed two IRGC general officers in Sayyida Zainab on December 2.[56] Iranian-backed militia groups and the IRGC maintain a headquarters in Sayyida Zainab and use it to facilitate Iranian lines of effort elsewhere in Syria.[57] Syrian opposition news outlet Eye of Euphrates reported on October 30 that the senior-most IRGC commander in Syria has coordinated all attacks on US forces in Syria through a joint operations room based in Sayyida Zainab.[58]

Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba’s (HHN) Political Council published a statement on December 11 calling for simultaneous political and military actions to expel the United States from Iraq.[59] The statement is consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are conducting a campaign to expel the United States from Iraq using military and political pressure.[60] The council called on the Iraqi parliament, central government, and unspecified “political forces” to pursue this objective. HHN called for the Iraqi government to implement the non-binding January 2020 parliamentary resolution to expel “all foreign forces” from Iraq. The council also called on Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani to stop the “US guardianship” over Iraq. The prime minister is the only Iraqi official who can order the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq by rescinding the 2014 executive agreement between Iraq and the United States that allows US forces to combat ISIS in Iraq.[61] The council also called for “military resistance” to “oust the occupation.”

HHN is a member of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that have attacked US positions in Iraq and Syria almost daily since October 18. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated on December 8 that HHN and Kataib Hezbollah (KH)—both of which are US-designated terrorist organizations—have conducted most Iranian-backed attacks on coalition personnel since the Israel-Hamas war began.[62]

US officials are continuing to pressure the Iraqi central government to protect US personnel in Iraq. Iranian-backed Iraqi militants conducted a rocket and mortar attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad and conducted at least 10 attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria on December 8.[63] These attacks marked a significant escalation in the Iranian-backed campaign to expel the United States from Iraq. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani after the attacks that the United States expects the Iraqi central government to take “more action” to prevent similar attacks, according to an anonymous US official.[64] CIA Director William Burns similarly warned that the Iraqi central government will face “harsh consequences” if it fails to stop attacks on US personnel in Iraq during a recent meeting with Sudani, according to an anonymous Iraqi official.[65]

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks on US positions in Iraq and Syria on December 11. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a single rocket attack targeting US forces at al Shaddadi, Hasakah Province, Syria.[66] The group has claimed nine attacks on al Shaddadi since October 18. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed two one-way drone attacks on Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq.[67] The group has claimed more than 20 attacks on Ain al Asad Airbase since October 18.  

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq resumed its attacks on US forces on December 3, two days after the humanitarian pause in the Gaza Strip ended on December 1.[68] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq escalated its attack campaign on December 8, claiming responsibility for attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria.[69]

Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Faylaq al Wa’ad al Sadiq (The Truthful Promise Corps) announced its opposition to targeting diplomatic missions in a statement on December 11.[70] The group wrote that diplomatic missions are “not responsible for the behavior of the political regimes to which they belong.” The statement follows Iranian-backed Iraqi militias’ rocket and mortar attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 8.[71] Faylaq al Wa’ad al Sadiq is part of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that has attacked US positions in Iraq and Syria almost daily since October 18. The group has unconfirmed ties to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias Asaib Ahl al Haq (AAH) and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba (HHN) and proclaims its adherence to the concept of Wilayat al Faqih.[72] Wilayat al Faqih refers to a governing system in which a supreme clerical leader provides guardianship over the state.[73] The group’s statement is inconsistent with other Islamic Resistance in Iraq statements that advocate for attacking diplomatic missions. Kataib Hezbollah Spokesperson Abu Ali al Askari claimed on December 9 that the US Embassy in Baghdad was a base for planning military and security operations disguised as a diplomatic mission, for example.[74] CTP-ISW assessed that KH is setting informational conditions to justify attacks on the embassy by framing it as a military target.[75]

The IRGC Ground Forces conducted a military exercise in Qasr-e Shirin, Kermanshah Province, Iran, on December 11.[76] The IRGC regional headquarters for Hamedan, Ilam, and Kermanshah provinces, the Najaf-e Ashraf Operational Base, conducted the exercise.[77] The 29th Nabi Akram Operational Division operates under the Najaf-e Ashraf Operational Base.[78] The exercise involved electronic warfare drills, testing of radar and communications systems, and reconnaissance missions.

Senior Iranian military officials emphasized on December 11 that the purpose of the exercise was to prepare Iranian forces to be able to confront any potential threats emanating from ISIS in Iraq. IRGC Ground Forces Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Pak Pour stated that ISIS elements are still active in Diyala Province, Iraq, and that Iranian forces must be able to counter threats from this group.[79] Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Deputy Coordinator Brigadier General Ali Shadmani separately stated that Iran faces security threats in the country’s western regions, where “counter-revolutionary, opposition, and terrorist” elements can enter Iran.[80] Shadmani additionally claimed that the United States “keeps ISIS under its control.” The Iranian regime has historically claimed that the United States created ISIS and provides intelligence, security, and logistical support to the group.[81] IRGC-affiliated media additionally claimed on December 11 that ISIS is aiding Israel in its war against Hamas.[82] Fars News Agency claimed that a large-scale propaganda campaign is underway, led by Israel and the United States, to try to equate Hamas with ISIS. The outlet also claimed that the resumption of ISIS operations in Syria since around the start of the Israel-Hamas war is part of a larger plot to “divert” the Axis of Resistance’s operations.

The inability of Iran and its allies to slow ISIS’s growth in central Syria is due in part to Iran’s prioritization of the Israel-Hamas War over countering ISIS.[83] Iran routinely prioritizes other objectives over countering ISIS’s growth in central Syria. ISIS seized gas fields in south central Syria in October and held these areas until early November.[84] Iranian proxies are conducting attacks against US forces in Syria, which limits their ability to support their Syrian regime allies against ISIS. The claim that the United States is using ISIS in Syria to “divert” the Axis of Resistance’s operations is part of an information effort that aims to obfuscate Iran’s inability to limit ISIS’s growth. Iran chose to focus on forcing US forces from the region by using its proxies to attack US forces in Syria, rather than defeating ISIS.

There are several other possible explanations for why the IRGC Ground Forces specifically conducted the military exercise in Kermanshah Province. The Iranian regime is wary of Kurdish opposition groups operating in Iraqi border regions and it has repeatedly called on the Iraqi central government to completely disarm and relocate Kurdish opposition groups away from the Iranian border.[85] The regime has previously accused Kurdish opposition groups of helping Israel smuggle military equipment into Iran to conduct operations against regime facilities.[86] The regime also accused Kurdish opposition groups of supporting Mahsa Amini protesters in late 2022.[87] Kermanshah Province recorded one of the highest rates of Mahsa Amini protests between September and December 2022.[88] 

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas War with Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh on December 8. Iranian media reported that Haniyeh said that Palestinian militias have the capability to fight for several years and that the fighting has “practically spread to other regions”.[89] Abdollahian reiterated that "resistance groups“ in the region are acting based on their own interests, and not at the direction of Tehran.[90] The support, guidance, and direction that Iran gives to its proxies and partners throughout the Middle East is well-documented. US Deputy National Security Adviser John Finer said on December 7 that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is integral in planning and executing the Houthi’s drone strikes and missile attacks on ships in the Red Sea, for example.[91]

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian parroted a Russian information operation claiming that Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas can acquire weapons “in Ukraine via illicit purchases” at the international Doha Forum on December 11.[92] Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev and several Russian state-controlled media outlets made similar claims shortly after the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023.[93] US Department of Defense Inspector General Robert Storch stated in February 2023 that his office has not found evidence that “any of the billions of dollars in weapons and aid to Ukraine has been lost to corruption or diverted into the wrong hands,” indicating that Iranian officials are likely amplifying a longstanding Russian information operation.[94]

Iran Update, December 10, 2023

Click here to read the full report with maps.

Ashka Jhaveri, Amin Soltani, Andie Parry, Riley Bailey, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00pm EST

Key Takeaways:

1. Palestinian militias continued to attack Israeli forces on the Israeli forward line of advance in Khan Younis.
2. Palestinian militias attacked Israeli military vehicles in Jabalia city as Israeli forces advanced east of the city.
3. Israeli forces killed the Hamas Shujaiya Battalion commander during clearing operations in the neighborhood.
4. Israel moved elements of its Artillery Corps into the Gaza Strip for the first time since the war began.
5. The Israeli Army Radio reported that the IDF has killed between 6,000 and 7,000 Palestinian militia fighters since the war began.
6. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine called for greater coordination among Palestinian militias against Israel.
7. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted two indirect fire attacks into Israel.
8. Al Qassem Brigades spokesperson Abu Obeida threatened that Hamas would conduct additional terror attacks against Israeli civilians.
9. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in five towns across West Bank.
10. Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a one-way drone attack that injured Israeli soldiers in northern Israel. LH claimed seven other attacks on Israeli military positions in northern Israel.
11. Asaib Ahl al Haq Secretary General Qais al Khazali reiterated his commitment to expelling US forces from Iraq in a social media statement.
12. Unspecified militants conducted two one-way drone attacks on US forces in eastern Syria, according to a US journalist.
13. The French FREMM Multi-Mission Frigate Languedoc intercepted two incoming Houthi drones off the Yemeni coast while patrolling the Red Sea.
14. Senior Iranian officials discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous in Tehran.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian militias continued to attack Israeli forces on the Israeli forward line of advance in Khan Younis on December 10. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued targeting Palestinian militia sites in Khan Younis, Jabalia, Shujaiya, and Beit Hanoun. Israeli forces attacked underground tunnels in Khan Younis and conducted airstrikes to support ground maneuvers.[1] The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed that its fighters detonated an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) targeting Israeli forces northeast of Khan Younis.[2] The militia claimed to kill 13 Israeli soldiers in the EFP attack and two more soldiers with small arms afterward the initial explosion. EFPs are particularly lethal improvised explosive devices designed to penetrate armored vehicles, such as main battle tanks.[3] This attack is consistent with the shift of Hamas and other Palestinian militias using increasingly sophisticated tactics since the humanitarian pause expired on December 1.

The al Qassem Brigades claimed several other attacks on Israeli soldiers and armored vehicles using anti-personnel munitions, rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), anti-tank rockets, and mortars. The militia claimed that it targeted an Israeli field command post with anti-personnel shells in one of the attacks.[4] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—conducted a complex attack on Israeli forces in a building northeast of Khan Younis using anti-personnel munitions and small arms. The militia also claimed three mortar attacks on Israeli soldiers advancing on east of Khan Younis.[5] The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP—claimed that its fighters clashed with Israeli soldiers and vehicles east of al Bureij in the central Gaza Strip and Khan Younis.[6] A local resident captured footage of Israeli tanks operating on the Osama Elnajjar Road in Khan Younis on December 10.[7]

Palestinian militias attacked Israeli military vehicles in Jabalia city as Israeli forces advanced east of the city on December 10. Most of the attacks claimed by Palestinian militias across the Gaza Strip occurred around Jabalia. Fighting between Israeli forces and militia fighters concentrated in eastern Jabalia city near Jabalia refugee camp and in western Jabalia city adjacent to the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood. The al Qassem Brigades claimed several attacks on Israeli Merkava tanks and armored bulldozers using the al Yassin anti-tank munition west of Jabalia refugee camp.[8] The militia claimed attacks using anti-personnel munitions, grenades, and small arms against Israeli forces in the same area.[9] The militia also claimed that its fighters conducted two house-borne improvised explosive device (HBIED) attacks on Israeli forces west of Jabalia.[10] The al Quds Brigades and al Qassem Brigades claimed to fire RPGs, including tandem-charged RPGs, at Israeli military vehicles and soldiers as they advanced on al Fallujah Road.[11] A Palestinian journalist in Jabalia refugee camp reported that Israeli tanks advanced toward a UN Relief and Works Agency clinic.[12] Several other local journalists commented on Israeli forces operating around the camp.[13]

Israeli forces killed the Hamas Shujaiya Battalion commander during clearing operations in the neighborhood. The Shujaiya Battalion is a combat effective battalion under active and intense IDF pressure as Israeli forces advance into Shujaiya neighborhood.[14] Israeli forces killed the former commander of the battalion on December 2.[15] The IDF announced on December 10 that it killed the new battalion commander, Amad Abdullah Ali Qariqa.[16] Qariqa had served as the deputy commander of the battalion since 2019 and trained anti-tank operatives in Hamas’ Gaza City Brigade.[17] The IDF said on December 2 that it has “significantly damaged” the battalion’s capabilities.[18]

The IDF provided details on three units’ operations in Shujaiya neighborhood on December 10. The 282nd Fire Brigade attacked over 20 targets, including weapons storage facilities, booby-trapped houses, and other Hamas-affiliated military infrastructure.[19] The Golani Brigade has uncovered 15 tunnel shafts, located ammunition, and killed Palestinian fighters since the start of fighting in the neighborhood.[20] The 188th Brigade Combat Team raided a Hamas military headquarters and found various weapons.[21]

The al Quds Brigades claimed on December 10 that one it its "martyrdom” fighters blew up a house of 13 Israeli soldiers, who were searching for a tunnel entrance in Shujaiya.[22] The attack is one of few Palestinian militia claims of ”martyrdom” operations since the Israel-Hamas war began.[23] An Israeli Army Radio journalist on the ground noted that Israeli forces had encountered a compound of booby-trapped houses while clearing Shujaiya and after Palestinian militia fighters attempted to lure the forces into a trap.[24] The al Quds Brigades separately claimed to destroy an Israeli tank using an EFP in Shujaiya.[25] The National Resistance Brigades claimed on December 10 that two of its fighters, including a commander, died during clashes in Shujaiya.[26]

Israel moved elements of its Artillery Corps into the Gaza Strip for the first time since the war began. The Artillery Corps has been using fire to support ground maneuver and for shaping operations in the Gaza Strip since the war began.[27]

The al Qassem Brigades military spokesperson, Abu Obeida, boasted about Hamas’ alleged battlefield success in the Gaza Strip in a speech on December 10. Abu Obeida claimed that the al Qassem Brigades have destroyed Israeli vehicles in several neighborhoods around the northern Gaza Strip and Khan Younis.[28] Obeida referenced a failed Israeli operation to rescue a hostage on December 8 to say that neither Israel nor the United States is capable of freeing Hamas-held Israeli soldiers in the Gaza Strip.[29]

The Israeli Army Radio reported that the IDF has killed between 6,000 and 7,000 Palestinian militia fighters since the war began.[30] The outlet stated that the IDF has killed 800 militia fighters since the resumption of fighting after the humanitarian pause expired on December 1.[31] The number of wounded of Hamas fighters is twice as high as the number of fatalities, between 12,000 to 14,000, since the beginning of the war began, according to the outlet.

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) called for greater coordination among Palestinian militias against Israel. The PFLP called for the formation of a unified Palestinian emergency command to confront Israeli military operations.[32] Some Palestinian militias have claimed combined operations since the war began, although such claims are infrequent.[33] CTP-ISW previously reported that the IDF faces a loose coalition of Palestinian militant groups in the Gaza Strip—not just Hamas.[34]

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted two indirect fire attacks into Israel on December 10. The al Qassem Brigades and al Quds Brigades separately fired rockets at an Israeli military site adjacent to the Gaza Strip.[35] An unspecified senior military source told Israeli Army Radio that Hamas has hundreds of medium- and long-range rockets left in its arsenal and noted that 2024 will be a continuous year of fighting.[36]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Al Qassem Brigades spokesperson Abu Obeida threatened on December 10 that Hamas would conduct additional terror attacks against Israeli civilians. Obeida referenced a shooting attack conducted by two Hamas gunmen on a bus stop in Jerusalem on November 30, saying “what is coming is worse and greater.”[37] That shooting attack killed three Israeli civilians hours before the humanitarian pause in the Gaza Strip expired.[38] The spokesperson also acknowledged that Hamas has a military presence in the West Bank and mockingly asked if Israel is “able to eliminate [Hamas] in the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem.”[39]

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in five towns across West Bank on December 10. Palestinian fighters used small arms against Israeli forces in three towns around Nablus.[40] The Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed that it shot at an Israeli military checkpoint in one of the Nablus clashes.[41] Palestinian fighters also engaged Israeli forces in Tubas and Hebron.[42] CTP-ISW did not record any IED attacks on Israeli forces in the West Bank on December 10. Israeli forces arrested 21 Palestinians and confiscated small arms, weapons components, and explosives in West Bank raids on December 10.[43]

Hamas and several other Palestinian groups called for a global strike, especially in the West Bank, on December 11. Hamas’ West Bank Telegram channel distributed flyers for the strike.[44] Hamas called on West Bank residents to fight Israeli forces and demonstrate against Israel on December 11.[45] The National and Islamic Forces—a coalition the major Palestinian political factions— announced that its parties would participate in the global strike as a show of unity.[46]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) conducted a one-way drone attack that injured Israeli soldiers in northern Israel on December 10. LH claimed that it launched several one-way attack drones at an Israeli command headquarters at the Yara barracks in northern Israel.[47] The IDF said that the attack moderately injured two soldiers and lightly injured others.[48] Israeli air defenses intercepted two of the several drones that entered Israel from Lebanon.[49] LH has only claimed seven drone attacks on Israeli positions along the Lebanese border since the Israel-Hamas war began, although the IDF frequently intercepts ”suspicious” aerial targets originating from Lebanon.[50] LH last claimed a drone attack on Israeli forces on November 20.[51]

LH claimed seven other attacks on Israeli military positions in northern Israel on December 10.[52] LH fired Burkan rockets at three Israeli military sites.[53] The al Qassem Brigades' Lebanon branch separately launched rockets at northwestern Israeli towns on December 10.[54] The al Qassem Brigades last claimed an attack from Lebanon on November 12.[55]

Top Israeli security and military officials discussed publicly on December 10 the threat that LH poses to Israel. Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hangebi told Israeli media that Israel can no longer accept the presence of LH’s elite Radwan forces along its northern border and that the situation in the north must change.[56] Hangebi added that Israel will pursue a diplomatic solution but otherwise would “have to act.” IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said that Israel emphasized similar sentiments about the need to address the LH threat, while visiting Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.[57] Halevi said that Israel can deter LH but can also achieve security through war. Halevi specified that war is not the preferred option. These statements follow Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warning on December 7 that “if Hezbollah makes a mistake, the IDF will turn Beirut and South Lebanon into Gaza and Khan Younis.”[58]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

Asaib Ahl al Haq (AAH) Secretary General Qais al Khazali reiterated his commitment to expelling US forces from Iraq in a social media statement on December 10.[59] Khazali’s statement follows recent indications of a division between AAH and other Iranian-backed Iraqi militant groups over attacks on US forces. Kataib Hezbollah (KH) has implicitly criticized the lack of AAH attacks on US positions since the Israel-Hamas war began.[60] AAH members also notably did not attend the December 5 funeral ceremony for five Iraqi militants killed during recent US self-defense strikes, though many other Iranian-backed Iraqi groups were present.[61] Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to try to expel US forces from Iraq, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[62]

Unspecified militants conducted two one-way drone attacks on US forces in eastern Syria on December 10, according to a US journalist.[63] The militants targeted the US positions at Conoco Mission Support Site and al Omar oil field. US forces intercepted three drones used in the attacks. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has not claimed responsibility nor has any other actor for the attacks at the time of writing. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq previously claimed attacks on US positions at al Omar oil field on December 4 and Conoco Mission Support Site on December 8.[64]

The French FREMM Multi-Mission Frigate Languedoc intercepted two incoming Houthi drones off the Yemeni coast while patrolling the Red Sea on December 9.[65] The Houthi drone attack comes after the Houthi military spokesperson announced on December 9 that the Houthis will expand their attacks on maritime traffic around the Red Sea.[66] The New York Times also reported on December 8 that Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” plans to increase attacks on US and allied assets in the Middle East, including Houthi attacks on American-owned vessels operating in the Red Sea.[67] The Houthis have unsuccessfully targeted US naval vessels in the Red Sea with drones on multiple occasions, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[68] US Deputy National Security Adviser John Finer stated on December 7 that the IRGC is involved in planning and executing the Houthis’ drone and missile attacks on ships in the Red Sea.[69]

Senior Iranian officials discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous in Tehran on December 10. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi boasted that the war has increased the global influence of Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance.”[70] Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rear Admiral Ali Akbar Ahmadian praised the unity of the Axis of Resistance against Israel.[71] Arnous met with Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on December 9.[72]

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian called on Europe to take “effective action” to facilitate a permanent ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war in a letter to EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell on December 10.[73] Abdollahian also called for the observance of international law and the provision of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. Abdollahian warned of the possibility of the “deep” expansion of the conflict if Israel continues its military operations in the Gaza Strip during a phone call with Borrell on December 3.[74] Iranian officials have tried to pressure international actors to pursue a ceasefire by repeatedly suggested that the war could evolve into a regional conflict, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[75]

Cypriot security forces arrested two Iranians on December 10 for allegedly plotting to assassinate prominent Israelis inside Cyprus.[76] Israel stated that it aided the operation to identify and arrest these individuals.[77] Cypriot and Greek authorities have previously arrested Iranian-backed individuals plotting to conduct similar attacks against Israelis in Cyprus and Greece.[78]

The PFLP said that attacks on US bases and interests in addition to removing US and Israeli forces from the region must remain a goal of the Palestinian resistance.[79] The PFLP criticized the United States for vetoing a resolution calling for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war at the UN Security Council on December 8.[80] Iranian-backed militias in the regional have attacked dozens of US positions in Iraq and Syria since the war began.[81]

The Kremlin continues to express an increasing anti-Israel position in the Israel-Hamas war despite feigning interest in being a neutral arbitrator in the conflict. NOTE: A version of this text appears in ISW December 10 Russia Offensive Campaign Assessment. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a telephone conversation on December 10, which reportedly lasted for 50 minutes and heavily focused on the Israel-Hamas war.[82] Putin reportedly noted that there is a “disastrous humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip” and stressed that avoiding consequences for the civilian population while countering terrorist threats is just as important as rejecting and condemning terrorism.[83] Putin’s comments are noteworthy in light of the devastation the Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought to the civilian population there and Russia’s deliberate efforts to inflict suffering on Ukrainian civilians by attacking energy infrastructure going into winter. Putin reportedly reiterated the Kremlin’s initial rhetorical position on the Israel-Hamas war by claiming that Russia is ready to alleviate civilian suffering and deescalate the conflict.[84] Putin has increasingly shifted away from this more neutral rhetoric to a much more anti-Israel position in recent weeks, notably claiming that the war is leading to the ”extermination of the civilian population in Palestine.”[85] Netanyahu reportedly expressed dissatisfaction with Russian positions towards Israel that Russian officials have articulated at the United Nations (UN) and other multilateral organizations.[86] Netanyahu also reportedly criticized Russia for its ”dangerous cooperation” with Iran, notably following Putin’s meeting with Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in Moscow on December 7.[87] Putin likely aimed to assuage Israeli concerns about Russian support for Hamas and the deepening Russian-Iranian security partnership, but Israeli and Russian rhetoric surrounding the conversation suggests that Putin likely failed to do so.[88] The Kremlin’s increasingly non-neutral framing of the Isarel-Hamas war signals potential increasing support for Iranian interests in the region and increased willingness to antagonize Israel.[89]

Iran Update, December 9, 2023

Click here to read the full report with maps

Ashka Jhaveri, Amin Soltani, Johanna Moore, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist Israeli advances. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed several attacks on Israeli forces and vehicles in the southern Gaza Strip.
2. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militias in Shujaiya neighborhood and Jabalia city as Israeli forces advanced in the northern Gaza Strip. Israel reported that Hamas is stealing supplies from civilians in Shujaiya neighborhood.
3. Palestinian militia fighters are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations.
4. The IDF spokesperson for Arab media posted specific evacuation orders covering areas of Khan Younis on X (Twitter).
5. Palestinian militias conducted at least five indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory.
6. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters at least seven times in the West Bank.
7. Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias conducted 16 attacks into northern Israel from Lebanon.
8. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted 11 “operations” against US forces in Iraq and Syria on December 8. Kataib Hezbollah later stated it plans to increase the scope of its attacks on US targets in Iraq.
9. Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Sarea announced that the Houthis will expand their attacks on maritime traffic around the Red Sea to include all vessels traveling to Israel, regardless of their national affiliation.
10. Senior Iranian officials discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous in Tehran.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist Israeli advances. Israeli forces located several tunnel shafts and a Hamas military headquarters as they advanced in Khan Younis.[1] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) engaged three Palestinian fighters as they emerged from a tunnel in central Khan Younis and fired a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG).[2] Hamas maintains an extensive tunnel system across the Gaza Strip, which Israeli forces have destroyed as they have advanced. Israeli forces also raided a mosque from which Hamas fighters were operating. The IDF said the Hamas fighters detonated an IED near Israeli forces.[3]

The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed several attacks on Israeli forces and vehicles in the southern Gaza Strip on December 9. The militia fighters primarily used RPGs, tandem charge anti-tank rockets, IEDs, and small arms to engage Israeli forces and vehicles.[4] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed to target nine military vehicles, two armored personnel carriers, and a bulldozer across the entire Gaza Strip, including around Deir al Balah and Khan Younis.[5] The al Quds Brigades also claimed to trap Israeli forces in a building and then fire RPGs at them.[6]

Palestinian militias continued conducting mortar and rocket attacks on Israeli forces in the southern Gaza Strip. The al Quds Brigades fired mortars and rockets at Israeli forces in Khan Younis city and along the Israeli forward line of advance in eastern Khan Younis.[7] The al Qassem Brigades separately claimed three successive mortar attacks on Israeli forces.[8]

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militias in Shujaiya neighborhood and Jabalia city as Israeli forces advanced in the northern Gaza Strip.

• Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militias near a school in Shujaiya neighborhood of Gaza city.[9] The forces uncovered small arms, grenades, and ammunition inside the classrooms, which is consistent with the IDF’s repeated reports that Hamas uses civilian infrastructure for military activity.[10] The al Quds Brigades claimed to use an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) to destroy an IDF tank in Shujaiya.[11] Hamas and other Palestinian militias have increasingly used EFPs, which are particularly lethal improvised explosive devices designed to penetrate armored vehicles, since the humanitarian pause ended on December 1.[12] The use of EFPs is part of a larger shift in which Hamas and PIJ are using increasingly sophisticated tactics against Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip.[13] The al Quds Brigades separately claimed to target three tanks with tandem-charged anti-tank rockets in the same neighborhood.[14] The al Qassem brigades claimed that it conducted two house-borne improvised explosive device (HBIED) attacks targeting Israeli forces southwest of Shujaiya in Zaytoun neighborhood of Gaza city.[15] The Palestinian militia attacks are consistent with Israeli media reporting that Hamas members have not fled and are fighting fiercely in Shujaiya neighborhood.[16]
• Israeli forces raided a series of buildings in Jabalia containing Hamas fighters and weapons and advanced to al Sheikh Radwan Pool southwest of Jabalia city.[17] The Israeli forces called in a drone strike to support their maneuvers in the city.[18] The al Quds Brigades and al Qassem Brigades claimed various attacks using mortars, RPGs, and anti-tank munitions against Israeli forces west of Jabalia.[19] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—claimed that its fighters clashed with Israeli forces on the outskirts of the Jabalia refugee camp.[20]

An IDF spokesperson reported on December 9 that Palestinian fighters in Shujaiya and Jabalia surrendered to the IDF and handed over their weapons and equipment.[21] Israeli media aired footage of several Palestinian men surrendering in front of Israeli forces.[22] The IDF spokesperson accused the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar, of being out of touch with the reality of the situation in the field.[23]

Israel reported that Hamas is stealing supplies from civilians in Shujaiya neighborhood. The IDF spokesperson for Arab media published drone footage of Hamas personnel beating residents and stealing food and humanitarian supplies in the neighborhood.[24]

Palestinian militia fighters are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. Palestinian militia fighters fired at Israeli forces from civilian infrastructure in Beit Hanoun.[25] The al Quds Brigades claimed to fire RPGs at two military vehicles in Beit Hanoun on December 9.[26] Fighting behind the Israeli forward line of advance is consistent with the doctrinal definition of "clear,” which is a tactical task that "requires the commander to remove all enemy forces and eliminate organized resistance within an assigned area.”

The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson posted evacuation orders covering specific areas in Khan Younis on X (Twitter) at 08:57 EST on December 9. The orders highlight specific blocks and neighborhoods in al Katiba, al Mahatta, and the city center of Khan Younis.[27] The evacuation notices called for civilians to go to “known shelters” west of Khan Younis.[28] The IDF previously published a map covering the same areas in Khan Younis on December 4.[29]

Palestinian militias conducted at least five indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory. The al Quds Brigades claimed on December 8 to fire rockets at Israeli towns in southern Israel without specifying the locations.[30] The al Qassem Brigades conducted three rocket attacks into southern Israel.[31] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—conducted a rocket attack on an Israeli town near the Gaza Strip.[32] The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine—conducted one rocket attack into southern Israel.[33] An IDF spokesperson reported on December 9 that Hamas has continued to fire rockets from the Israel-declared humanitarian zone west of Khan Younis.[34] The spokesperson referenced two rocket attacks on December 8, which fell short of Israeli territory.[35]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters at least seven times in the West Bank on December 9. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed three simultaneous shootings on Israeli forces at the Deir Sharaf and Awarta checkpoints and Hatmar Shomron.[36] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades also clashed with Israeli forces around Jericho and Kafr Rai.[37] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades threw an IED at Israeli forces in the clashes near Jericho.[38]

A funeral was held in Tubas on December 9 for a Palestinian fighter that died in clashes with Israel forces. At least 100 individuals attended the funeral, some of whom wore Hamas and PIJ headbands and carried the militias’ flags.[39] The funeral procession chanted ”sword against sword, we are Mohammad Deif’s men,” referring to the commander of the al Qassem Brigades.[40] The presence of PIJ personnel is noteworthy in that context. The Lions’ Den—a West Bank-based militia—has similarly expressed allegiance to Mohammad Deif in recent weeks, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[41]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and other Iranian-backed militias conducted 16 attacks into northern Israel from Lebanon on December 9.[42] This rate of attacks is consistent with the daily average. LH claimed 11 of the attacks on Israeli forces.[43] Unidentified Iranian-backed fighters separately claimed five rocket attacks.[44]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted 11 “operations” against US forces in Iraq and Syria on December 8.[45] Western media previously reported that unspecified militants conducted nine attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria and one attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 8, marking 10 attacks in total.[46] It is unclear why the Islamic Resistance in Iraq reported one ”operation” more than the number of attacks that Western media reported. It is possible that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq is using the term ”operation” more broadly than to refer to just attacks.

Kataib Hezbollah (KH) stated that it plans to increase the scope of its attacks on US targets in Iraq on December 9.[47] KH spokesperson Abu Ali al Askari congratulated the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, of which KH is a member, on its attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 8 and warned that the attack marked a new standard for attacks against the United States in Iraq.[48] Askari claimed that the US Embassy in Baghdad was a base for planning military and security operations disguised as a diplomatic mission.[49] By referring to the US embassy as a military target, KH is setting informational conditions to justify attacks on the embassy. Askari’s statement comes after the Islamic Resistance in Iraq escalated significantly its attack campaign, conducting around 10 attacks on US personnel in Iraq and Syria on December 8. Askari also said that KH will consider Iraqi security forces that cooperate with the United States as accomplices to US “crimes,” suggesting that KH may attack these Iraqi security personnel as well. Unidentified militants conducted a rocket attack on the Iraqi National Security Service (NSS) headquarters on December 8, damaging the facility, according to the NSS spokesperson.[50]

Askari claimed that its attacks are meant to expel US forces from Iraq.[51] This framing is consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are conducting a campaign to expel the United States from Iraq with military and political pressure.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reaffirmed that the United States has the right to retaliate against Iranian-backed terror organizations for attacks on US personnel during a phone call with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani on December 9.[52] Austin’s call with Sudani comes after the Islamic Resistance in Iraq escalated its attack campaign on December 8. Austin stated that the US-designated terrorist organizations KH and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba (HHN) have conducted the majority of attacks on coalition personnel since the Israel-Hamas war began.[53] Austin and Sudani also discussed the Iraqi central government’s obligation to ensure the security of US and coalition personnel, advisers, and facilities.[54]

Sudani ordered the establishment of a working group to investigate the December 8 rocket attacks on the US Embassy in Baghdad and NSS headquarters.[55] Sudani granted the team “broad powers” to confront any threats to the security of diplomatic missions in Iraq.[56] Iraqi military spokesperson Yahya Rasoul claimed that the team will work with local authorities to identify and arrest individuals responsible for the attacks.[57]

Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Sarea announced on December 9 that the Houthis will expand their attacks on maritime traffic around the Red Sea to include all vessels traveling to Israel, regardless of their national affiliation.[58] Sarea said that ”if Gaza does not receive the food and medicine it needs, all ships in the Red Sea bound for Israeli ports, regardless of their nationality, will become a target for our armed forces."[59] The United Nations reported on December 8 the delivery of food, medical supplies, and water, among other aid shipments, to the Gaza Strip.[60] It is therefore unclear on what exactly Sarae is conditioning the end of Houthi attacks and whether he is calling for more aid to go to the Gaza Strip. Sarae’s announcement follows several Houthi attacks against Israeli-owned ships and US naval vessels around the Bab al Mandeb in recent weeks.[61]

Sarea’s announcement is consistent with recent Western media reporting that the Houthis—with Iranian support—plan to expand their attacks on maritime traffic around Yemen. The New York Times reported on December 8 that Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” plans to increase attacks on US and Israeli assets in the Middle East, including Houthi attacks on American-owned vessels operating in the Red Sea.[62] The New York Times also reported that Iran operates an intelligence gathering ship in the Red Sea that helps the Houthis identify vessels to attack. This report is probably referring to the Behshad, which is a military vessel that Iran operates off the Dahlak archipelago.[63] US Deputy National Security Adviser John Finer similarly stated on December 7 that the IRGC is involved in planning and executing the Houthis’ drone and missile attacks on ships in the Red Sea.[64]

Senior Iranian officials discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous in Tehran on December 9. Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber called for an end to American and Israeli “crimes” in the Gaza Strip and criticized international institutions for their inaction during his meeting with Arnous.[65] Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Hamas’ October 7 attack as major turning point for Iran’s so-called ”Axis of Resistance” during his meeting with Arnous.[66] Arnous will later meet with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rear Admiral Ali Akbar Ahmadian during his visit to Tehran.[67]

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war during a phone call with German Foreign Affairs Minister Alena Burbok on December 9.[68] Abdollahian emphasized the need for finding an immediate political solution to the conflict.

Iran is continuing to pressure the United States and Israel into establishing a permanent ceasefire by warning that failing to do so will precipitate an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned that war would likely expand and the “region could explode out of hand” if the United States and Israel continue to support the military operation into the Gaza Strip during a phone call with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on December 9. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri similarly warned Israel against continuing its “crimes” against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip on December 9. These statements are consistent with previous Iranian rhetoric surrounding the Israel-Hamas war, which CTP-ISW has previously reported.[69]

 

Iran Update, December 8, 2023

Click to read the full report with maps 

Andie Parry, Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Kathryn Tyson, and Peter Mills

 

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

Key Takeaways:

 

1. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted an indirect fire attack targeting the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 8 for the first time since 2021, marking a notable escalation in Iranian efforts to expel US forces from Iraq.
2. Iranian-backed Iraqi actors' current campaign to remove US forces draws remarkable similarities to the 2021 campaign to force a US troop withdrawal from Iraq.
3. Israeli forces are destroying Hamas infrastructure in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist their advances.
4. Israeli forces are operating to dismantle Hamas in Deir al Balah in the central Gaza Strip. Israeli forces also clashed with Palestinian fighters eight times across the West Bank.
5. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted 10 indirect fire attacks into Israel.
6. Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias claimed 13 attacks into northern Israel.
7. The IDF conducted multiple strikes on unspecified Iranian-backed targets in southern Syria on December 8 in retaliation for rocket strikes into the Golan Heights the day prior.
8. Unspecified militants conducted 9 attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria, according to a US journalist.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted an indirect fire attack targeting the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 8 for the first time since 2021, marking a notable escalation in Iranian efforts to expel US forces from Iraq. An unidentified US military official reported that unidentified militants fired multiple rockets at the US Embassy in Baghdad and Forward Operating Base (FOB) Union III, landing near the embassy’s gates and in the river nearby.[1] An unidentified US embassy spokesperson confirmed that the perpetrators launched two salvos of rockets toward the US Embassy compound at approximately 0415 local time.[2] An anonymous US military official separately told Western media that seven mortar rounds landed in the US Embassy compound, causing minor damage but no casualties.[3] An anonymous Iraqi security official claimed that three Katyusha rockets were fired at the embassy but fell in the vicinity of the Green Zone.[4]  No group has claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of writing.

Iraqi Supreme Judicial Council President Faiq Zaidan met with US Ambassador Alina Romanowski on December 8, likely to discuss Iranian-backed Iraqi actors’ efforts to use legal and political pressure to try to expel the United States from Iraq. Iraqi media reported that Zaidan and Romanowski discussed the constitutional and legal foundations “for addressing all the problems that Iraq and the region are going through.”[5] Zaidan and Romanowski’s meeting follows the Iraqi Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee’s December 6 announcement that is has drafted a resolution to expel US forces from Iraq.[6] Zaidan is a close political ally of Tehran.[7] He recently met with Romanowski on November 17 to discuss the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court’s decision to remove former Iraqi Parliamentary Speaker Mohammed Halbousi from office and the necessity of an independent judiciary.[8] CTP-ISW previously hypothesized that Halbousi was removed from his post as part of political efforts to reduce the US presence in Iraq.[9]

Iranian-backed Iraqi actors' current campaign to remove US forces draws remarkable similarities to the 2021 campaign to force a US troop withdrawal from Iraq. Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are pursuing political and military means to force US forces to withdraw from Iraq. The Iraqi Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee presented a draft resolution to expel US forces, arguing that the United States' recent strikes in Iraq were a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.[10] CTP-ISW previously assessed that the current attack campaign is meant to impose a cost on the United States for supporting Israel while also eroding American willingness to remain militarily in Iraq and Syria.[11] Iraq’s Council of Representatives similarly passed a non-binding resolution in January 2020 to remove US forces from Iraq following IRGC-QF Commander Qasem Soleimani’s death.[12] Iranian-backed Iraqi proxies intensified their attack campaign on US forces in frequency and expanded geographically in from 2020 to 2021 to pressure former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi to force US forces to withdraw from Iraq.[13] Kadhimi and US President Joe Biden signed an agreement in July 2021 agreeing to a troop drawdown that allowed for 2,500 military advisors to remain in Iraq to support Iraqi Security Forces under Operation Inherent Resolve.[14] 

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces are destroying Hamas infrastructure in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist their advances. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported on December 8 that its ground, air, and naval forces continued the offensive in Khan Younis, which it claims is a main stronghold for Hamas.[15] Israeli forces are clashing with Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade in targeted raids while seizing various weapon systems and intelligence materials.[16] The IDF 7th Brigade engaged in a multi-hour complex attack on Palestinian militias, some of whom were preparing to fire rockets at Israel.[17] Commercially available satellite imagery captured on December 8 shows recently flattened terrain in areas between the two Israeli advances toward Khan Younis, which suggests that the IDF have linked up. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed to target Israeli forces with rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) at a school in between the two Israeli advances.[18] 

The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its fighters detonated a house-borne improvised explosive device (HBIED) targeting Israeli forces east of Khan Younis on December 8.[19] The use of more sophisticated tactics, such as rigging a house to explode, is consistent with Hamas’ shift from less sophisticated to more sophisticated tactics after the end of the humanitarian pause.[20] The al Qassem Brigades claimed seven attacks on Israeli forces and vehicles in the southern Gaza Strip using RPGs, including anti-tank RPGs, mortars, and small arms.[21] Other Palestinian militias allied with Hamas also attacked the IDF near Khan Younis. The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—mortared Israeli forces on the Israeli line of advance east of Khan Younis.[22] The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—claimed that its militia fighters fired mortars at Israeli vehicles and clashed with Israeli forces northeast of Khan Younis.[23] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—fired mortars and anti-tank munitions at Israeli forces on the eastern Israeli line of advance into Khan Younis.[24]

Israeli forces are attempting to dismantle Hamas in Deir al Balah in the central Gaza Strip. The 7th Brigade began an offensive to break through Hamas’ defensive lines in the central and southern Gaza Strip, which included raiding a Deir al Balah Battalion position.[25] Israeli naval forces struck Hamas observation posts and weapons storage facilities in the central Gaza Strip.[26] The Deir al Balah Battalion, which is part of Hamas’ Central Brigade, released a training video prior to October 7 of its militia fighters practicing close-quarters combat in urban environments.[27] The al Quds Brigades claimed that its militia fighters clashed with Israeli forces using anti-tank RPGs and small arms on the axes of Israeli advances east of Deir al Balah.[28] Palestinian militias have claimed attacks on Israeli forces in Deir al Balah since December 3.[29]

Israeli forces initially advanced into the southern Gaza Strip along the intersection of two of Hamas’ battalions’—the Central and Khan Younis Battalions—area of operations.[30] The IDF declared the Salah al Din Road between southern Deir al Balah and Khan Younis a combat zone on December 2 and moved eastward to secure the Salah al Din Road south of Deir al Balah on or before December 3.[31] The Israeli presence along the seam of two Hamas battalions could create operational challenges for Hamas to coordinate a defense of Khan Younis.

Israeli media reported that Hamas is defending Shujaiya neighborhood in Gaza city. A Lebanese Hezbollah telegram channel reposted Israeli news site Yedioth Ahronoth’s claim that Hamas members have not fled and are fighting fiercely in the Shujaiya neighborhood.[32] An Israeli commander operating in Shujaiya noted that Hamas military infrastructure, such as tunnel shafts, is in most homes and schoosl in the neighborhood.[33] Shujaiya is one of the most densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip.[34] Hamas militia fighters and Israeli forces engaged in a multi-day battle in Shujaiya in 2014 where the IDF took 16 casualties.[35]

The IDF continued clearing operations in Shujaiya neighborhood on December 8 as Palestinian militias claimed attacks on Israeli forces and vehicles. The IDF said on December 8 that the 188th Brigade and Counter-Terrorism Unit forces operated at the heart of Shujaiya and defended against an attempted al Qassem Brigades ambush.[36] The al Qassem Brigades used anti-tank RPGs on six Israeli military vehicles in Sheikh Radwan and al Zaytoun neighborhoods in Gaza city.[37] The al Quds Brigades fighters claimed two tandem-charged RPG and grenade attacks on Israeli forces on advancing axes in the Shujaiya and Zaytoun neighborhoods.[38] An unspecified Israeli source quoted by Palestinian media said that the al Qassem Brigades are continuing to launch rockets targeting Tel Aviv from Shujaiya and Jabalia neighborhoods.[39]

The IDF acknowledged its forces failed to extract a hostage from Hamas custody in the Gaza Strip on December 8. The IDF said that two of its soldiers were injured during the operation and no hostages were rescued.[40] The IDF did not say if the hostage was killed and accused Hamas of attempting psychological warfare against Israel.[41] The al Qassem Brigades said hostage Sa’ar Baruch died during a clash with Israeli forces on December 8 as fighters thwarted the attempt to rescue Baruch.[42] The al Qassem Brigades also claimed an unspecified number of hostages died in Israeli airstrikes.[43]

Palestinian militias are using more sophisticated tactics to confront the IDF’s advance into Jabalia and have had some success. The IDF confirmed that Israeli war cabinet minister Gadi Eizenkot’s son died while fighting in the northern Gaza Strip on December 7.[44]  The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its fighters killed the soldier when they detonated an IED on a tunnel door on the eastward line of advance into Jabalia.[45] The al Quds Brigades claimed an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) attack on the western Israeli line of advance into Jabalia on December 8.[46] This is consistent with Palestinian militias' use of increasingly sophisticated tactics against Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip after the end of the humanitarian pause.[47] Hamas and other Palestinian militias have used EFPs six times since December 1 and are increasingly rigging houses and tunnel infrastructure with explosives.[48]

Israeli forces continued to uncover Hamas military infrastructure in cleared areas on December 8. The IDF 749th Reserve Engineering Battalion destroyed Hamas military infrastructure, located kilometer-long tunnel routes, and seized EPFs, rocket parts, and launchers at al Azhar University in northern Gaza city’s Rimal neighborhood.[49] The IDF 14th Brigade raided a Hamas observation room containing hundreds of radios, dozens of cameras, magazines, a combat shaft, grenades, and other unspecified military equipment around the al Shati medical center.[50]

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted 10 indirect fire attacks into Israel on December 8. This is consistent with the weekly average after a decline on December 7.[51] The al Qassem Brigades conducted five rocket attacks, including three salvos targeting Tel Aviv.[52] The al Qassem Brigades published a video of their forces using long-range M-90 rockets to target Tel Aviv.[53] The al Quds Brigades conducted four rocket attacks.[54] One rocket attack went unclaimed.[55]

West Bank

Correction Note: CTP-ISW incorrectly reported on December 8 that the Lions' Den said that the West Bank is "nothing but a sword and a shield" for Mohammed Deif and Saleh al Arouri. The Lions' Den made this statement on November 8, not December 8. CTP-ISW has removed the Lions' Den statement from the section below.

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there 

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters eight times across the West Bank on December 8.[56] Palestinian fighters engaged Israeli forces in small arms clashes eight times near major cities in the West Bank, including Hebron and Ramallah. Palestinian militants clashed with Israeli forces during Israeli raids in the Fara refugee camp in the northern West Bank.[57] Hamas announced that six of its fighters died during raids in the Fara camp on December 8.[58]

West Bank residents held four anti-Israel demonstrations in the West Bank on December 8.[59]

Palestinian militias called for an escalation in attacks and demonstrations in the West Bank on December 8. Hamas called on fighters in the West Bank to avenge the deaths of fighters killed in the West Bank “by all possible means.”[60] The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine said that Israeli forces plan to increase operations in the West Bank and that ”a response will inevitably come.”[61] The Lions’ Den—a West Bank-based Palestinian militia—claimed that it conducted 14 attacks across the West Bank during an unspecified period and called for further attacks.[62] The Lion’s Den last called for mobilization against Israeli forces in the West Bank on November 9.[63]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and other Iranian-backed militias claimed 13 attacks into northern Israel on December 8. LH claimed ten attacks, all of which targeted Israeli military facilities along the Lebanese border.[66] IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari reported that Israel’s air defense system intercepted a “suspicious aerial target” that entered Israeli airspace from Lebanon.[67] Unidentified militants launched two separate rocket attacks on Israeli forces at Shtula and Maalot Tarshiha injuring two IDF soldiers.[68]

The IDF conducted multiple strikes on unspecified Iranian-backed targets in southern Syria on December 8 in retaliation for rocket strikes into the Golan Heights the day prior.[69] LH-affiliated al Mayadeen claimed that the Israeli strike killed four Iranian-backed militants near al Baath and al Hamidiya, Quneitra Province.[70] Iran and Iranian-backed militias have deployed militants to Quneitra Province since October 9 to support Axis of Resistance efforts to threaten Israel on multiple fronts, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[71]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

Unspecified militants conducted 5 attacks on US forces in Iraq on December 8, according to a US journalist.[72] Unspecified militants conducted two attacks on Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for one of the attacks, which it conducted using rockets.[73] An Iraqi OSINT X (Twitter) account claimed that the second attack was also a rocket attack.[74] CTP-ISW cannot verify this claim. Unspecified militants conducted two attacks on Erbil Airport in northern Iraq and one attack on al Harir Airbase in Erbil Province, Iraq.

Unspecified militants conducted 4 attacks on US forces in Syria on December 8, according to the same US journalist.[75] Unspecified militants conducted two attacks on the Rumalyn Landing Zone in Hasakah Province, Syria. Unspecified militants conducted an attack on the US base Conoco Mission Support Site in northeastern Syria. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for this attack, which it carried out using rockets.[76] Unspecified militants conducted an attack targeting US forces stationed at al Shaddadi, Hasakah Province, Syria.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war in a phone call with PIJ Secretary General Ziyad al Nakhalah on December 8.[77] Abdollahian described Iranian diplomatic efforts to support Palestinians, including President Ebrahim Raisi’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on December 7. Nakhalah presented a report on the most recent developments in the war and on Palestinian resistance groups’ “complete readiness” to confront Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip and to defend Gazans.

Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous traveled to Tehran on December 8 to attend a meeting on bilateral economic cooperation.[78] Arnous will meet with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf during his three-day visit to Iran.[79]

US Deputy National Security Adviser John Finer stated that the IRGC is involved in planning and executing the Houthis’ drone and missile attacks on Israel and ships in the Red Sea.[80] The New York Times reported that Iran operates an intelligence gathering ship in the Red Sea, which helps the Houthis identify Israeli-owned vessels to attack.[81] Unspecified IRGC-affiliated Iranian sources stated that Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance plans to increase attacks on US and Israeli facilities in the Middle East, including Houthi attacks on American-owned vessels operating in the Red Sea.[82] The US Treasury sanctioned an IRGC-QF financier Sa’id al Jamal on December 7 for facilitating tens of millions of dollars in Iranian financial support for the Houthi movement.[83]  US officials linked this continued Iranian financial support to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and international trade.[84]

 

Iran Update, December 7, 2023

Click here to read the full report with maps

Annika Ganzeveld, Kathryn Tyson, Andie Parry, Peter Mills, Alexandra Braverman, Brian Carter, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

Key Takeaways:

1. Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to try to expel US forces from Iraq. They are using military, legal, and political pressure to drive out the United States.
2. Israeli forces continued clearing and targeting operations in Khan Younis. Palestinian militias claimed at least 18 attacks along the northern and eastern lines of Israeli advance in Khan Younis.
3. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Jabalia. The IDF advanced further into the Shujaiya and Tuffah neighborhoods of eastern Gaza city.
4. Palestinian militias conducted one indirect fire attack into southern Israel.
5. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters 15 times across the West Bank.
6. Top Israeli officials are outlining Israel’s post-October 7 policy toward Lebanon and attempting to deter further Lebanese Hezbollah military escalation against Israel.
7. Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias conducted thirteen attacks targeting northern Israel, including one attack that killed an Israeli civilian.
8. Unspecified Iranian-backed militias fired two rockets from Syria towards Buqata, Israel, in the Golan Heights.
9. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba political chief Sheikh Ali al Asadi warned the United States to withdraw its forces from the Middle East during an interview with Newsweek.
10. Senior Iranian officials met with the International Liaison Department head of the Chinese Communist Party, Liu Jianchao, in Tehran.
11. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian spoke on the phone with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammad al Thani.
12. Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed developing Russian-Iranian economic relations with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow.

Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to try to expel US forces from Iraq. Forcing the removal of the US military is one of Iran’s most important strategic objectives in the Middle East. CTP-ISW previously assessed that the dozens of Iranian-backed militia attacks on US military positions in recent weeks have been meant to impose a cost on the United States for supporting Israel while also eroding American willingness to remain militarily in Iraq and Syria.[1] Iranian and Axis of Resistance leaders are operating on the theory that relatively low levels of militant pressure gradually diminish the willingness of the US political establishment to sustain deployments in the Middle East.

Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are also using legal and political pressure to drive out US forces. The Iraqi Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee announced on December 6 a draft resolution to expel US forces from Iraq in response to US self-defense strikes on Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.[2] A member of the committee framed the strikes as violations of Iraqi territorial integrity and stated that the committee would submit the resolution to the Iraqi parliament speaker.[3] This committee is headed by parliamentarian Abbas Shuail Odeh Thajil al Zamili, who is a member of the Iranian-backed Badr Organization.[4] It is unclear whether Parliament has any legal authority to force the US military to leave Iraq or whether the resolution would be non-binding.

The fact that the committee will submit the resolution to the parliament speaker at this time is particularly noteworthy given recent changes to the position. The Iraqi Federal Supreme Court removed Mohammad al Halbousi from the position on November 14.[5] An Iraqi parliamentarian claimed that Halbousi tried before his ouster to block a parliamentary effort to expel the US ambassador to Iraq, suggesting that Halbousi was removed at least partly for that reason.[6] The expulsion of Halbousi from Parliament may therefore remove an obstacle to advancing anti-US legislation and resolutions. Parliamentarian Mohsen al Mandalawi succeeded Halbousi as the interim parliament speaker. Mandalawi is a member of the Shia Coordination Framework, which is an umbrella organization for Iranian-backed political parties.[7] Mandalawi previously met with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber to discuss the Israel-Hamas war in Tehran on December 4, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[8]

The Iraqi parliament has previously passed non-binding resolutions to expel US forces. The parliament passed a resolution to this end in January 2020, for instance, in response to the US strike that killed Qassem Soleimani and his top Iraqi deputy, Abu Mehdi al Muhandis, at Baghdad International Airport.[9] That resolution was meant to impose political pressure on the prime minister to advance negotiations to remove US forces even though the resolution was non-binding. The resolution called on the Iraqi central government to “revoke its request for [military] assistance from the international coalition.”[10] The 2020 parliamentary resolution argued that US forces should leave because military operations against ISIS were over. The United States later reached an agreement with then-Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi in 2021 to end the US combat mission in Iraq and transition the forces there to an advisory mission.[11]

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces continued clearing and targeting operations in Khan Younis. The IDF 98th Paratrooper Division destroyed dozens of Hamas tunnel shafts in Khan Younis while conducting clearing operations moving from the north and east.[12]  IDF ground forces used drones to identify and call in strikes on Palestinian militants exiting tunnels with RPGs in Khan Younis.[13] Commercially available satellite imagery captured on December 6 shows recently flattened terrain in areas around Khan Younis and Bani Suhaila, where the IDF and Palestinian militias have reported advances and clashes.[14] The satellite footage also indicates that Israeli forces conducted their assault on Khan Younis from two directions—one from the Kissufim road crossing and the other from agricultural land west of Ein HaShlosha.

The IDF Air Force announced on December 7 that it conducted an airstrike targeting two senior Hamas intelligence officials several days beforehand.[15] The airstrike killed a “reconnaissance operative” in Hamas’ al Qarara Battalion and a senior Hamas military intelligence officer responsible for planning the October 7 attack. The strike hit a Hamas intelligence unit that was building a comprehensive assessment of the operational environment in the Gaza Strip, according to the IDF Arabic-language spokesperson.[16] The spokesperson assessed that the destruction of the unit and the operatives' deaths caused “severe damage to Hamas’ fighting system.“[17]

Palestinian militias claimed at least 18 attacks along the northern and eastern lines of Israeli advance in Khan Younis.[18] The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed 13 of the direct and indirect fire attacks and used anti-tank rocket propelled grenades (RPG), anti-tank grenades, small arms, and mortars against Israeli forces moving westward and southward.[19] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed that it mortared Israeli forces in three areas of Khan Younis and Bani Suhaila on December 7.[20] The al Quds Brigades and al Qassem Brigades also conducted two combined mortar attacks on Israeli forces.[21] The Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—claimed unspecified attacks on Israeli forces on the Israeli eastern line of advance.[22]

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Jabalia December 7. The IDF 460th Brigade raided an outpost for Hamas’ Central Jabalia Battalion in the al Bisan area of Jabalia on December 7.[23] Israeli forces killed several fighters and located a network of underground tunnels, a training complex, and a weapons warehouse near the Hamas battalion’s post.[24] The IDF said that Palestinian fighters fired anti-tank missiles targeting Nahal Brigade soldiers in Jabalia.[25] Al Qassem Brigades and al Quds Brigades fighters attacked Israeli dismounted infantry, tanks, and armored personnel carriers on their southward line of advance into Jabalia from Beit Lahia.[26] The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its fighters detonated an IED in a tunnel opening after luring Israeli forces into the entrance on the eastward line of advance into Jabalia.[27] The al Qassam Brigades claimed that the attack killed Israeli soldiers.

The IDF advanced further into the Shujaiya and Tuffah neighborhoods of eastern Gaza city. The IDF fought Palestinian militants in a school in eastern Shujauya and located tunnel shafts in the school and weapons warehouses nearby.[28] The commander of the IDF 74th Battalion, which is part of the 188th Armored Brigade, said that the tunnel reaches deep into the Gaza Strip.[29] The IDF uncovered six other tunnel shafts in Shujaiya.[30] Al Qassem Brigades and al Quds Brigades fighters used small arms, mortars, anti-tank grenades, and tandem shells in attempts to stop the advance of Israeli tanks and soldiers.[31] Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades fighters clashed with Israeli forces in the Shujaiya and Tuffah neighborhoods using unspecified weapons.[32]

The UN continued delivering humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip on December 7. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) announced that eighty trucks carrying humanitarian aid and fuel entered the Gaza Strip.[33] OCHA released a joint statement with other UN and non-governmental organizations calling for increased relief efforts through additional access points, including the Kerem Shalom crossing in southern Israel.[34] An unspecified Israeli official told the Times of Israel that Israel will open the Kerem Shalom crossing for inspections of humanitarian aid trucks.[35] The UN aid chief said on December 7 that the crossing could be opened for humanitarian aid ”soon” but that negotiations are ongoing.[36]

Palestinian militias conducted one indirect fire attack into southern Israel on December 7. The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine—claimed one rocket attack targeting a city near the Gaza Strip.[37] The al Quds Brigades and al Qassem Brigades did not claim indirect fire attacks into Israel on December 7. Palestinian militias previously reduced indirect fire attacks during periods of heavy fighting before the temporary pause began on November 24, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[38]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters 15 times across the West Bank on December 7.[39] This level of violence is consistent with the daily average rate of clashes in the West Bank over the last seven days. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades clashed with Israeli forces and detonated IEDs targeting these forces six times in Tulkarm and Nablus on December 7.[40] Palestinian fighters separately conducted small arms and IED attacks on Israeli forces during Israeli raids in Ramallah and near Jenin in Araba.[41] Israeli forces arrested 21 wanted individuals, including four Hamas fighters, in the West Bank during overnight raids.[42]

 West Bank residents held one anti-Israel demonstration in Nablus on December 7.[43]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Top Israeli officials are outlining Israel’s post-October 7 policy toward Lebanon and attempting to deter further Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) military escalation against Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement on December 7 while visiting the IDF Northern Command that aimed to deter LH from escalating against Israel. Netanyahu warned that “if Hezbollah makes a mistake, the IDF will turn Beirut and South Lebanon into Gaza and Khan Younis.”[44] This statement is separate from Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s comments on December 6, in which Gallant outlined Israel’s post-October 7 security requirements in southern Lebanon. Gallant said that Israel seeks a diplomatic solution that pushes LH’s military forces north of the Litani River, in accordance with UNSC Resolution 1701.[45] UNSC Resolution 1701 ended the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War.[46] Gallant added that Israel will resort to military force if diplomatic efforts fail.[47]

LH and other Iranian-backed militias conducted thirteen attacks targeting northern Israel on December 7, including one attack that killed an Israeli civilian.[48] LH claimed ten attacks targeting Israeli military positions along the border.[49] The IDF said that an anti-tank guided missile attack killed one Israeli civilian near Mattat, Israel, on December 7.[50] LH claimed that attack.[51]

Unspecified Iranian-backed militias fired two rockets from Syria towards Buqata, Israel, in the Golan Heights.[52] The IDF reported the rockets caused no damage or injuries.[53] IDF artillery targeted unspecified Iranian-backed militia positions in Hadar, Syria, in response to the rocket attack.[54]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba (HHN) political chief Sheikh Ali al Asadi warned the United States to withdraw its forces from the Middle East during an interview with Newsweek on December 7.[55] Asadi stated that HHN and the broader Axis of Resistance have created an “escalation schedule” for the Israel-Hamas war and that “there will be surprises that America did not expect from the Axis of Resistance.” Asadi added that the Axis of Resistance is prepared for a long-term battle. HHN is a member of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed militias that has attacked US forces in Iraq and Syria over 80 times since the beginning of the war.[56] Other HHN officials have previously issued similar warnings and threats to the United States. HHN Secretary General Akram al Kaabi recently threatened on December 4 to retaliate against US forces for an airstrike that killed five Iraqi militants on December 3, for example.[57]

Unspecified gunmen assassinated Iraqi al Dai Party founder Fadel al Marsoumi in Baghdad on December 7.[58] Marsoumi founded the party in 2008, and one of its main objectives is to dissolve “all armed formations outside the framework of the state and the law.”[59] The party also prioritizes establishing an independent judiciary, according to its statements. The al Dai Party launched an election campaign for the upcoming December 18 provincial council elections with the slogan “nationalists offering a referendum.”[60] Iraqi outlets have reported that Marsoumi’s supporters are running in the Diyala provincial council elections under the “Nationalists” electoral list.[61]

Senior Iranian officials met with the International Liaison Department head of the Chinese Communist Party, Liu Jianchao, in Tehran on December 7. Strategic Foreign Relations Council Chairman Kamal Kharazi emphasized in their meeting the importance of cooperation between Iran, China and Russia in forming a “new world order.” Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber also attended the meeting, which focused on bilateral cooperation and the Israel-Hamas war. The Iranian and Chinese officials reaffirmed their support for the Palestinian people. Liu stated that China always supports the Palestinian people and stands by Arab and Islamic countries.[62] Mokhber separately stressed Iran’s readiness for increased economic cooperation with China, specifically regarding joint investments in Iran’s oil and gas fields.[63]

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian spoke on the phone with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammad al Thani on December 7. The two discussed bilateral relations and the Israel-Hamas war, according to Iranian readouts.[64]

Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed developing Russian-Iranian economic relations with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow on December 7. Putin stated that trade between Russia and Iran grew by 20 percent in 2023 and reached over five billion dollars.[65] Putin reported that Russia and Iran are constructing a railway line along an unspecified section of the North-South Corridor (a planned railway route that will connect Russia to the Indian Ocean via Iran).[66] Putin also announced that he and Raisi intend to sign an agreement establishing a free trade zone between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) at the end of December 2023.[67] The continued progress on the North-South Corridor and the planned establishment of an EAEU-Iranian free trade zone are likely part of continued Russian efforts to procure Iranian materiel support for Russian operations in Ukraine while facilitating both Russian and Iranian sanctions evasion efforts. Putin also noted the ”importance [for him and Raisi] to exchange views on the situation in the region, especially in Palestine” and commended Iranian-Russian energy and education cooperation.[68] Putin met with Omani Crown Prince and Minister of Culture, Sports, and Youth Theyazin bin Haitham bin Tariq Al Said on December 7 on the sidelines of the “Russia Calling!” investment forum in Moscow, likely a continuation of bilateral meetings with Persian Gulf State leaders after Putin’s December 6 meetings in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.[69]

 

Iran Update, December 6, 2023

Click here to read the full report with maps.

Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, Kathryn Tyson, Annika Ganzeveld, Peter Mills, Amin Soltani, and Brian Carter

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces are operating in Khan Younis as part of the Israel Defense Force (IDF)’s effort to target senior Hamas commanders. Palestinian militias claimed several attacks along Israeli lines of advance in Khan Younis.
2. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Jabalia and the Shujaiya neighborhood of eastern Gaza City.
3. Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters engaged in 15 clashes across the West Bank.
4. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israel is pursuing diplomacy to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which bans Lebanese Hezbollah from positioning military forces south of the Litani River.
5. Lebanese Hezbollah claimed 10 attacks into Israeli territory from Lebanon.
6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks targeting US positions in Iraq on December 5 and 6.
7. The Houthi movement said that it launched several ballistic missiles targeting Eilat in southern Israel on December 6.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces are operating in Khan Younis as part of the Israel Defense Force (IDF)’s effort to target senior Hamas commanders. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on December 6 that the Israeli military had encircled Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar’s house in Khan Younis.[1] Residents in the area told Reuters that Israeli tanks neared his home.[2] IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that Sinwar is likely underground in Hamas’ extensive tunnel network.[3] Israel has claimed repeatedly that senior political and military Hamas leadership, including Sinwar and Hamas’ military chief Mohammed Deif, are hiding in Khan Younis.[4]

The IDF 98th Paratrooper Division led the attack on Khan Younis to target Hamas’ ”centers of gravity,” which is presumably a reference to Hamas’ critical command node in the city.[5] The IDF said that its forces encircled the city after it broke through Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade’s defenses. The IDF reported that it began conducting targeted raids within the city.[6] The IDF issued urgent warnings to residents in the Khan Younis area against traveling on the Salah al Din Road as Israeli forces are operating on parts of the road.[7] The Israeli Air Force attacked 250 targets across the Gaza Strip on December 6, targeting weapons, tunnels, IEDs, and other military infrastructure.[8] Hagari stated that the four IDF divisions operating across the Gaza Strip are fighting with a high intensity as they break down defensive lines.[9]

Palestinian militias claimed several attacks along Israeli lines of advance in Khan Younis. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed that its fighters detonated a house-borne improvised device (HBIED) targeting Israeli forces east of Khan Younis on December 6.[10] The use of more sophisticated tactics, such as rigging a house to explode, is consistent with Hamas’ shift from less sophisticated to more sophisticated tactics after the end of the humanitarian pause.[11] The al Qassem Brigades claimed several other indirect and direct fire attacks using anti-tank rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), small arms, and mortars.[12] Other Palestinian militias allied with Hamas also attacked the IDF near Khan Younis. The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed that it used a high-explosive fragmentation grenade and mortars to attack Israeli forces, east of Khan Younis.[13] Bani Suheila residents reported on December 6 that Israeli forces reached Bani Suheila.[14] The al Nasser Salah al Din Brigades—the militant wing of the Popular Resistance Committees —claimed that its fighters fought Israeli forces advancing in Khan Younis.[15] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade—a self-affiliated militant wing of Fatah—claimed that its fighters targeted an Israeli tank with an anti-tank munition east of Khan Younis.[16]

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Jabalia on December 6. The IDF stated its Nahal Brigade fought Palestinian fighters in Jabalia on December 6.[17] The IDF announced it had “encircled” the neighborhood and was operating at its “core” on December 5.[18] Geolocated footage posted on December 5 shows armed clashes between Palestinian fighters and Israeli troops that occurred near Kamal Idwan Hospital on the northern border of Jabalia.[19] The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry reported Israeli tanks fired at the hospital’s main generator on December 5, indicating Israeli forces advanced into Jabalia.[20] The IDF said its fighters operating in Jabalia recovered one of the largest stockpiles of weapons in the Gaza Strip, consisting of hundreds of missiles and launchers, long-range rockets, RPGs, drones, and explosively formed penetrators.[21]

The al Qassem Brigades attacked Israeli military vehicles along the Israeli line of advance in the Beit Lahia Project area, just north of Jabalia.[22] The al Nasser Salah al Din Brigades said that its fighters fought field coordination with the al Qassem Brigades and the al Quds Brigades in neighborhoods near Jabalia camp including Tal al Zaatar, Kamal Adwan, and al Fallujah.[23] The al Nasser Salah al Din Brigades is a loose group of local militias and the third largest armed group in the Gaza Strip.[24]

The IDF also continued clearing operations in the Shujaiya neighborhood of eastern Gaza City. The IDF said on December 5 that it was in the “core” of Shujaiya on December 5.[25] The al Quds Brigades attacked Israeli forces on the lines of advance into Shujaiya with IEDs, RPGs, and anti-armor shells.[26] The al Quds Brigades also fired anti-tank rockets at Israeli forces advancing into Shujaiya from the al Tuffah neighborhood, northwest of Shujaiya.[27] The al Qassem Brigades posted a video of its fighters attacking Israeli military vehicles with anti-tank rockets in the Shujaiya neighborhood on December 5.[28] The video included a burning Israeli Merkava tank in Shujaiya.[29]

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted seven indirect fire attacks into Israel on December 6. The al Qassem Brigades conducted six rocket attacks targeting southern Israel.[30] The al Quds Brigades conducted one rocket attack.[31] 

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters engaged in 15 clashes across the West Bank on December 6. This level of violence is consistent with the daily average rate of clashes in the West Bank over the last seven days. Palestinian fighters, including al Qassem Brigades fighters, engaged Israeli forces in two small arms clashes and detonated at least two IEDs targeting Israeli vehicles as Israeli units conducted raids in Jenin.[32] Palestinian fighters also detonated five other IEDs targeting Israeli forces and engaged Israeli forces in seven other small arms clashes elsewhere in the West Bank.[33] Palestinians demonstrated against Israeli operations in Gaza in Ramallah and Tulkarm on December 6.[34]

The IDF said that its forces arrested 16 wanted persons, three of whom were affiliated with Hamas, in the West Bank on December 6.[35]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israel is pursuing diplomacy to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which bans Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) from positioning military forces south of the Litani River.[36] Gallant met with mayors and local council heads in Nahariya, northern Israel, on December 6.[37] Israel evacuated thousands of northern Israelis from their homes after the October 7 attacks.[38] Gallant “promised” that northern Israelis will not return to their homes before Lebanese Hezbollah military forces are north of the Litani River. Gallant said that the “best option” is for a diplomatic agreement in which unspecified actors would enforce UN Security Resolution 1701. The resolution, which ended the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War, created a demilitarized zone between the Blue Line and the Litani.[39] Gallant said that if diplomatic measures fail Israel will use its military to force LH north of the river, according to the Times of Israel.

Lebanese Hezbollah claimed 10 attacks into Israeli territory from Lebanon on December 6.[40] This rate of attacks is consistent with the daily average. Unspecified fighters conducted three additional attacks into northern Israel, including a 16-rocket salvo targeting Matat, northern Israel.[41]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks targeting US positions in Iraq on December 5 and 6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq resumed its attacks on US forces on December 3, two days after the humanitarian pause in the Gaza Strip ended on December 1. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq and its affiliated groups have claimed 81 attacks against US forces in the Middle East since October 18.

• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed two separate one-way drone attacks targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar province, Iraq, on December 5 and 6.[42] The group has claimed 24 attacks on Ain Asad Airbase since October 18.
• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a drone attack targeting US forces at al Harir Airbase in Erbil province, Iraq, on December 6.[43] The group last claimed an attack on al Harir Airbase on November 22.[44]

The Houthi movement said that it launched several ballistic missiles targeting Eilat in southern Israel on December 6.[45] The IDF reported that it intercepted a surface-to-surface missile over the Red Sea and said that the missile did not cross into Israeli territory.[46] The Houthi military spokesperson said that the Houthis will continue to target Israel until the end of the Israel-Hamas War.[47]

The USS Carney shot down a likely Houthi drone over the southern Red Sea on December 6.[48] An unspecified US official told the Navy Times that the drone originated from Houthi-controlled territory. There were no injuries to US personnel or damage to the ship and it was not clear what the drone was targeting. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency also reported a drone incident west of the Houthi-controlled Hudaydah port in the southern Red Sea on December 6.[49] It is not clear if these are the same incidents.

Two unspecified sources “familiar with Saudi thinking” told Reuters that Saudi Arabia urged the United States to show restraint amid Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.[50] The sources said that Saudi Arabia is “pleased” with the United States’ handling of the situation and wishes to avoid further escalation. Saudi Arabia is negotiating a bilateral peace agreement with the Houthis that seeks to secure Saudi Arabia’s exit from the war in Yemen.[51] Saudi efforts to encourage US restraint vis-a-vis the Houthis aim to protect this truce. The Houthis view the United States and Saudi Arabia as belligerents in the war against the Houthis.[52] The Houthis would likely therefore view a US retaliation against the Houthis as a violation of the Saudi-Houthi informal truce that began in April 2022.[53]

An unspecified “Iran-aligned” source based in Tehran told Reuters that Houthi representatives discussed their attacks with Iranian officials in November, demonstrating continuing Houthi-Iranian coordination.[54] The source may have been referencing a meeting between the Houthi Ambassador to Iran Ibrahim al Daylami and Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian in Tehran on November 30.[55] The source said that the Houthi and Iranian representatives agreed that the Houthis would carry out attacks in a “controlled” way that would help force the end to the Israel-Hamas war. Another "Iran-aligned” source told Reuters that Iran does not want to become directly involved in an “all-out war in the region.”

Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rear Admiral Ali Akbar Ahmadian discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Chinese Communist Party International Liaison Department head Liu Jianchao on December 6 in Tehran.[56] The two officials emphasized further cooperation between their countries to end the war.

Iranian First Vice President Mohammed Mokhber discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Omani Trade, Industry, and Development Minister Qais bin Mohammad al Youssef on December 6.[57] Mokhber thanked al Youssef for Oman’s stance against Israeli “crimes” and criticized international institutions for not taking “serious” action to halt Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip.

Iran Update, December 5, 2023

Click here to read the full report with maps.

Brian Carter, Johanna Moore, Andie Parry, Amin Soltani, Annika Ganzeveld, Alexandra Braverman, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

Contributor: Khaled Maalouf

Key Takeaways:

1. Palestinian militia fighters continued to use more sophisticated tactics to target Israeli forces throughout the Gaza Strip.
2. Israeli forces moved eastward and secured the Salah al Din Road south of Deir al Balah on or before December 3.
3. Israeli forces entered urban areas in Khan Younis and Bani Suheila. Palestinian militia forces, including the al Qassem Brigades and the al Quds Brigades, are attempting to resist the Israeli advance into Khan Younis governorate.
4. Israeli forces continued their advance into Jabalia and Shujaiya.
5. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted nine indirect fire attacks into Israel.
6. Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters clashed in nine towns across the West Bank.
7. Lebanese Hezbollah claimed 15 attacks into Israeli territory from Lebanon.
8. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps held a funeral ceremony in Tehran for two IRGC Quds Force general officers killed in Syria.
9. US CENTCOM reported that unspecified actors launched 15 122mm rockets from Iraq at the US forces at the Rumalyn Landing Zone in Syria on December 3.
10. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov agreed to cooperate toward undermining international sanctions.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian militia fighters continued to use more sophisticated tactics to target Israeli forces throughout the Gaza Strip on December 5. This is consistent with the tactical shift CTP-ISW has observed since the end of the humanitarian pause.[1] The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed that its fighters detonated a house-borne improvised explosive device (HBIED) targeting Israeli forces east of Khan Younis on December 5.[2] The HBIED collapsed the building. The group claimed that it detonated multiple claymore-type, anti-personnel mines in an ambush east of Khan Younis on December 5.[3] The al Qassem Brigades also targeted an Israeli tank with an EFP north of Khan Younis on December 4.[4] Al Qassem Brigades fighters inside an Israeli cantonment filmed Israeli soldiers relaxing inside the position near Juhor ad Dik.[5] The group claimed that they filled a tunnel under the cantonment with explosives and detonated it "among 60 Israeli soldiers.”[6]

Israeli forces moved eastward and secured the Salah al Din Road south of Deir al Balah on or before December 3. Satellite imagery published by the New York Times shows Israeli armor that moved east to west across Salah al Din Road before establishing cantonments on the west side of the road.[7] Israeli forces fought Palestinian fighters south of this area near Khan Younis on December 3 and 4, according to local witnesses, Israeli sources, and Palestinian media.[8] The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson declared the Salah al Din Road between southern Deir al Balah and Khan Younis a combat zone on December 2, which is consistent with Palestinian reports that Israeli forces were moving along the Salah al Din Road on December 3 and 4.[9] These reports suggest that Israeli forces moved south along the road toward Khan Younis.

Israeli forces entered urban areas in Khan Younis and Bani Suheila on December 5. The commander of the IDF Southern Command said on December 5 that the IDF is operating in the “core” of Khan Younis.[10] A Palestinian journalist reported that Israeli vehicles reached Muhatta and Municipality Park in northern Khan Younis on December 5.[11] The same source added that Israeli forces also moved to Rabea Road in eastern Bani Suheila.[12]

Palestinian militia forces, including the al Qassem Brigades and the al Quds Brigades, are attempting to resist the Israeli advance into Khan Younis governorate. The al Qassem Brigades detonated an EFP targeting Israeli armor north of Khan Younis city on December 4.[13] The al Qassem Brigades and the al Quds Brigades also claimed at least eighteen other attacks targeting Israeli forces along the Israeli "line of advance” north and east of the city on December 4 and 5.[14]

Israeli forces continued their advance into Jabalia and Shujaiya on December 5. The commander of the IDF Southern Command said on December 5 that the IDF is operating in the “core” of Shujaiya and Jabalia—similarly to how he announced Israeli operations in the “core” of Khan Younis.[15] The IDF also reported that its forces are operating in the Jabalia neighborhood after they encircled the area.[16] This is consistent with Palestinian militia claims. The al Quds Brigades reported that its forces fired tandem rockets at IDF vehicles near the Sanafour Roundabout and on Mushtaha Street in Shujaiya neighborhood on December 5. Geolocated footage posted on December 5 also showed IDF armor moving south through northern Jabalia.[17] The al Quds Brigades also targeted Israeli forces moving through the al Fallujah area, west of Jabalia.[18]

Palestinian militia fighters continued attacks targeting Israeli forces behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. A Gaza Strip-based news outlet reported fighting in Juhor ad Dik, Beit Hanoun, Shati Camp, Beit Lahia, Tal al Hawa, and Zaytoun on December 5.[19]

The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel is preparing a system of pumps to flood Hamas’ tunnel system with seawater.[20] The report said that Israel informed the United States in early November that it was considering the tactic and that Israel assembled at least five pumps north of Shati Camp in mid-November.[21] The Wall Street Journal said that US officials held "mixed” opinions regarding the plan, with some officials expressing concern over the plan and others supporting Israeli efforts to disable the tunnels. US officials told the outlet that they did not know when Israel would execute the plan but that Israel had not yet made a final decision to use the pumps.

USAID Administrator Samantha Power arrived in Egypt to meet with Egyptian officials and humanitarian organizations.[22] Power arrived alongside 36,000 pounds of US-provided food assistance and medical supplies. USAID said that Power will highlight the US commitment to protecting civilians and the “absolute necessity” for the levels of humanitarian assistance reaching the Gaza Strip to “continue at, and exceed, the levels reached during the humanitarian pause.”

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted nine indirect fire attacks into Israel on December 5. The al Qassem Brigades conducted six rocket attacks targeting Israel, including one rocket salvo targeting Tel Aviv.[23] The al Quds Brigades conducted two rocket attacks targeting southern Israel.[24]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters clashed in nine towns across the West Bank on December 5.[25] This level of violence is consistent with the daily average rate of clashes in the West Bank over the last seven days. Palestinian fighters clashed twice with Israeli forces conducting large-scale raids in Jenin.[26] Israel informed the Palestinian Authority that Israeli forces’ activity in Jenin would last up to 72 hours, according to a Palestinian journalist.[27] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—conducted two IED attacks during the Jenin raids.[28] The group claimed four of the nine clashes on December 5.[29] The group also announced the death of one of its commanders in the clashes with Israeli forces. [30] Palestinian fighters conducted two IED attacks against Israeli forces in other areas of the West Bank as well.[31]

The IDF said that its forces arrested 21 wanted persons in the West Bank on December 5.[32] The Palestinian Prisoners’ and Ex-Prisoners’ Affairs Authority, which is part of the Palestinian Authority, said Israel arrested 40 Palestinians.[33]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) claimed 15 attacks into Israeli territory from Lebanon on December 5.[34] This rate of attacks is consistent with the daily average. LH exclusively targeted Israeli military sites along the Lebanese border. The IDF reported that a “hostile aircraft” crossed into Israeli airspace and was recovered by the IDF near Margaliot.[35] Unidentified militants conducted two separate rocket attacks into Israel toward Zerait and Kiryat Shemona.[36]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) held a funeral ceremony in Tehran on December 5 for two IRGC Quds Force general officers killed in Syria.[37] Israel conducted airstrikes into southern Syria on December 2, killing two members of the IRGC Quds Force Unit 340.[38] This branch of the Quds Force is responsible for transferring technical military capabilities to members of the Axis of Resistance. Current and former high-ranking IRGC officials attended the funeral ceremony for the two general officers killed, including:

• IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami;
• Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani;
• Sarallah Operational Headquarters Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Hossein Nejat;
• Former Ambassador to Iraq and Quds Force officer Brigadier General Eraj Masjidi; and
• IRGC Commander Adviser and former IRGC Intelligence Organization Director Hossein Taeb.[39]

It is normal for IRGC leaders to attend the funeral ceremonies for IRGC officers killed in Syria. The IRGC confirmed on December 2 that Israel killed the two general officers.[40]

US CENTCOM reported that unspecified actors launched 15 122mm rockets from Iraq at the US forces at the Rumalyn Landing Zone in Syria on December 3.[41] The Islamic Resistance of Iraq nor has any other actor claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of writing. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq previously claimed that it launched two one-way drones toward US positions around Rumalyn on November 11.[42]

Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada Secretary General Abu Alaa al Walai condemned in a post on X (Twitter) on December 5 the US self-defense strike against Iranian-backed Iraqi militants on December 3.[43] US CENTCOM confirmed that the United States conducted a self-defense strike against five Iraqi militants planning a one-way drone attack on US forces near Kirkuk, Iraq, on December 3.[44] Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba (HHN) acknowledged that the killed individuals were members of the militia.[45] HHN Secretary General Akram al Kaabi threatened on December 4 to retaliate against US forces for the airstrike.[46]

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—circulated videos of the funeral ceremony for the five fighters on December 5.[47] The publication of these videos by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq is unsurprising given that HHN is one of its constituent militias. Several other members of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq broadcasted their presences at the funeral as well, showing solidarity with HHN. A large number of individuals at the ceremony carried the flags of Kataib Hezbollah (KH) and Kataib Seyyed ol Shohada. Asaib Ahl al Haq (AHH) flags were noticeably absent among the crowd, which is noteworthy given that KH has implicitly criticized the lack of AAH attacks on US positions since the Israel-Hamas war began.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov agreed to cooperate toward undermining international sanctions on December 5. The agreement is meant to promote cooperation between Iran and Russia to mitigate the negative economic effects of "unilateral coercive measures,” including sanctions, according to Iranian state media.[48] Abdollahian and Lavrov made the agreement during an annual meeting of the foreign ministers of the Caspian Sea littoral states in Moscow. The meeting comes two days ahead of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s scheduled trip to Moscow to meet with his Russian counterparts and discuss economic relations and the Israel-Hamas war. Abdollahian separately repeated the regime’s calls for a goods and energy embargo against Israel in the presence of the foreign ministers of Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan.

Artesh Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Erani traveled to Baku, Azerbaijan, on December 4 to discuss expanding defense and maritime cooperation with senior Azerbaijani defense and military officials.[49] Erani met with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Vice Admiral Subhan Bakirov, and Azerbaijani Defense Minister Colonel General Zakir Hasanov. Erani called for increasing combined training, exercises, and sea patrols between the Artesh and Azerbaijani navies.[50] Erani and Bakirov also emphasized the need for security in the Caspian Sea to increase trade and transit between the five Caspian littoral states. Erani visited several Azerbaijani Navy units and training centers. Tensions have flared between Tehran and Baku over several different issues in recent years, including Iranian leaders’ accusation that Azerbaijan allows Israeli intelligence agents to operate in its territory.[51] Some Iranian leaders have softened their criticisms toward Azerbaijan in recent weeks, however. Artesh Coordination Deputy Brigadier General Habibollah Sayyari claimed on November 30 that Israel has withdrawn its forces from the Caucasus amid the Israel-Hamas war.[52]

Houthi President Mehdi al Mashat stated that the Houthi movement will continue to target Israel until it stops its attacks into the Gaza Strip.[53] Mashat previously stated on November 29 that US military pressure against the Houthi movement would not change its policies toward the Israel-Hamas conflict.[54]

Iran Update, December 4, 2023

click here to read the full report with maps

Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, Kathryn Tyson, Amin Soltani, and Brian Carter

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST 

Key Takeaways:

1. Israel continued conducting clearing operations in the northern Gaza Strip to encircle Hamas in Shujaiya neighborhood and Jabalia city.
2. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militias in the central and southern Gaza Strip along the Salah al Din Road.
3. Israel continued clearing operations in Beit Hanoun to destroy Palestinian militia infrastructure.
4. Palestinian fighters conducted ten attacks targeting Israeli forces across the West Bank. Lebanese Hezbollah claimed 11 attacks into northern Israel targeting Israeli forces and civilians.
5. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for two attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria on December 3.
6. US Central Command confirmed that the US military conducted a self-defense strike against five Iraqi militants planning a one-way drone attack on US forces near Kirkuk, Iraq, on December 3.
7. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri discussed expanding intelligence cooperation with the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) during a meeting with PMF Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh in Baghdad on December 4.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israel continued to conduct clearing operations in the northern Gaza Strip to encircle Hamas in Shujaiya neighborhood and Jabalia city. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant observed Israeli forces in Shujaiya and Jabalia on December 4 and noted that the forces have returned there to “close the circle.”[1] The Wall Street Journal reported that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have cornered Hamas fighters in the last two strongholds in the northern Gaza Strip.[2] An IDF spokesperson issued a warning to Hamas commanders in Shujaiya that they are targets and that Israel will use extreme force in the neighborhood to dismantle Hamas military infrastructure on December 3.[3]

Palestinian militias claimed several attacks along Israeli lines of advance along the al Fallujah Road in Jabalia. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—targeted Israeli forces and military vehicles near the al Fallujah Road with rocket propelled grenades (RPGs), including tandem-charged RPGs and small arms.[4] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—fired tandem-charged RPGs and an anti-armor grenade.[5] Hamas- and PIJ-affiliated media reported that the al Nasser Salah al Din Brigades—the militant wing of the Palestinian Resistance Committees (PRC)—engaged in clashes with Israeli forces in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood southwest of Jabalia.[6] The PRC is a loose grouping of armed factions in the Gaza Strip that is strong allies with Hamas and PIJ.[7]

Hamas and PIJ-affiliated media reported clashes between Palestinian fighters and Israeli forces in Shujaiya neighborhood.[8] A Palestinian journalist noted that Israeli forces are advancing into Shujaiya neighborhood from several axes.[9]

Israel forces clashed with Palestinian militias in the central and southern Gaza Strip along the Salah al Din Road. Israel announced on December 2 that it is resuming and expanding ground operations gains Hamas’ strongholds across the whole Gaza Strip and confirmed that ground forces are operating north of Khan Younis.[10] Witnesses told AFP that dozens of Israeli tanks entered the southern part of the Gaza Strip and are operating on the Salah al Din Road.[11] The IDF Arab media spokesperson announced on December 2 civilians cannot use the Salah al Din Road north and east of Khan Younis due to Israeli military operations in the area.[12]

A Palestinian journalist said local rescue teams advised residents to avoid windows, balconies, and exterior building walls in Deir al Balah where Israeli forces are present.[13] Hamas- and PIJ-affiliated media reported that Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces in Deir al Balah on December 4, which is the second consecutive day of fighting in the area.[14] The al Quds Brigades mortared groups of Israeli soldiers in Deir al Balah.[15] The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—clashed with Israeli forces in al Qarar northeast of Khan Younis.[16] CTP-ISW is not expanding map layers given that the Israeli direction of advance is unspecified, as is the extent of their advance.

Israel continued clearing operations in Beit Hanoun to destroy Palestinian militia infrastructure. Israeli forces found two tunnel shafts in a school including a booby-trapped one as well as an IED and weapons in Beit Hanoun.[17] The IDF attacked 200 Hamas-affiliated targets across the Gaza Strip on December 4, including anti-tank weapons, tunnels, and personnel.[18] Israeli ground forces directed airstrikes to destroy infrastructure used for anti-tank ambushes and a weapons depot.[19] The al Qassem Brigades targeted Israeli forces behind the Israeli forward line of advance in Beit Hanoun, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. The militants used tunnels to ambush Israeli forces and used anti-personnel munitions and small arms in four separate attacks.[20] The al Qassem Brigades also claimed to use a Shawaz explosively formed penetrators (EFP) to target an IDF tank.[21] Hamas and other Palestinian militias have used EFPs six times since December 1.[22] This is consistent with Hamas’ use of increasingly sophisticated tactics against Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip after the end of the humanitarian pause.[23] The al Qassem Brigades claimed four attacks on Israeli forces and vehicles east of Beit Lahiya using RPGs and anti-personnel munitions.[24]

The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson did not post any new specific evacuation orders in the Gaza Strip on December 4. The IDF Arab media spokesperson repeated evacuation orders covering areas of the northern Gaza Strip including al Mahatta, al Katiba, Hamad, al Satar, Bani Suheila, and Maan.[25] The spokesperson directed residents in the Khan Younis area to use the coastal road to avoid Israeli military operations.[26] The IDF temporarily suspended military activity in the Rafah camp area for humanitarian purposes.[27]

The entire Gaza Strip is experiencing a near-total internet blackout. Palestine-based communications companies announced a blackout of services in Gaza City and the Northern Gaza Strip on December 4.[28] NetBlocks later confirmed that most residents will experience a total loss of communications.[29] The Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) said it has lost contact with its teams in the Gaza Strip due to the blackout.[30]

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted 18 rocket and mortar attacks into Israel on December 4. The al Qassem Brigades claimed responsibility for 10 rocket attacks.[31] The al Quds Brigades claimed responsibility for six rocket attacks.[32] The National Resistance Brigades claimed one rocket attack into southern Israel.[33] The al Nasser Salah al Din Brigades fired mortars at Kissufim.[34]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Palestinian fighters conducted ten attacks targeting Israeli forces across the West Bank on December 4. Palestinian fighters engaged Israeli forces in five small arms clashes and detonated five IEDs targeting Israeli forces.[35] The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) said on December 4 that it would escalate attacks in response to Israeli forces killing Palestinian fighters in Qalqilya on the same day.[36] The PFLP has repeatedly incited attacks and demonstrations in response to Israeli actions in the West Bank in recent weeks, but these calls have not generated increased attacks or demonstrations.[37]

Iranian state media claimed on December 4 that that Palestinian fighters “control” part of a town in the West Bank, which is an information operation. Iranian state media outlets al Alam and IRIB News said that a new Palestinian militia group called the Biddya Brigades have “taken control” over Biddya in northern West Bank.[38] Al Alam said that the Biddya Brigades recently announced its establishment and seeks to ”repel the attacks of the Israeli occupation.” Pro-Hamas and Iranian social media pages said that the Biddya Brigades reshared a video of an alleged Biddya Brigades fighter ”roaming the streets” in Biddya.[39] LH-affiliated outlet al Mayadeen said on December 3 that the Biddya Brigades "paraded through the streets” in Biddya.[40] The IDF has not commented on the Biddya Brigades or the groups’ presence in Biddya. CTP-ISW has not observed evidence that support the Iranian claims that the Biddya Brigades ”control” the town.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there

 

• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) claimed 11 attacks into northern Israel on December 4, targeting Israeli forces and civilians.[41] Unspecified fighters conducted three other attacks into northern Israel.[42] The IDF acknowledged two of these attacks.[43]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts

 

• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for two attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria on December 3. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq resumed its attacks on US forces on December 3, two days after the humanitarian pause in the Gaza Strip ended on December 1.[44] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq and its affiliated groups have claimed 78 attacks against US forces in the Middle East since October 18.

• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a single one-way drone attack targeting US forces at Green Village in northeastern Syria on December 3.[45] The group has claimed eight attacks on Green Village since October 18.

 

• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a single one-way drone attack targeting US forces at Ain Asad Airbase on December 3.[46] The group has claimed 22 attacks on Ain Asad Airbase since October 18.

Unspecified actors are conducting an information operation to obfuscate Russian assistance to Iran and its proxies in an effort to prevent Israel from escalating in Syria. Anonymous unspecified diplomatic sources told Syrian-regime opposition media that Russia is attempting to avoid any escalation with Israel inside Syria by attempting to limit Iranian influence in southwestern Syria and by limiting Russian weapons transfers to Iran and Iranian-backed groups. These sources claimed that Russia, the Assad regime, and the United Arab Emirates seek to remove Iranian-backed militias from the Syrian border with the Golan Heights.[47] The anonymous sources also said that Russia decided not to transfer military equipment to Iran and Iranian-backed groups.

Russia has provided support to Iran and Iranian-backed forces in Syria during the Israel-Hamas War, however. An IRGC-linked Mahan Air flight purportedly transporting shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft missiles landed at the Russian Hmeimim military airport in northern Syria from Tehran on November 2.[48] Multiple US officials told Western media on November 3 that the Wagner Group planned to transfer air defense systems to Lebanese Hezbollah.[49] The White House declassified intelligence on November 21 that corroborated these reports.[50]

Russia and Israel have a complex relationship in Syria, as Israel has historically relied on Russia to curb Iranian activities in Syria.[51] Israel has stopped giving Russian forces advanced warning of its strikes into Israel, however.[52]

US Central Command confirmed on December 4 that the US military conducted a self-defense strike against five Iraqi militants planning a one-way drone attack on US forces near Kirkuk, Iraq, on December 3.[53] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed militias—announced that five of its fighters died in battle on December 3. Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba (HHN), which is a member of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, said specifically that the fighters were HHN members.[54] HHN Secretary General Akram al Kaabi threatened on December 4 to retaliate against US forces for the airstrike.[55] Kaabi stated that the deaths of the fighters “kindles the flame of revenge in our hearts” and warned the United States that it “will pay a heavy price for [its] crime.”

Iranian officials warned that Israeli attacks on Iranian interests in Syria “will not go unanswered” on December 4.[56] Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani stated that Iran will respond to any attacks on its interests, particularly its “advisory forces” in Syria during one of his regular press conferences on December 4. Strategic Foreign Relations Council Chairman Kamal Kharrazi echoed Kanani, saying that Israeli attacks on Iranian bases in Syria will “never remain unanswered” during an interview with Al Jazeera. Kharrazi is a foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Both officials were referring to a purported Israeli airstrike on Iranian positions in Syria that killed two IRGC general officers on December 2.[57]

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Cuban President Miguel Diaz Ganel on December 4 in Tehran.[58] Khamenei emphasized the need for a united global front against Western and Israeli oppression of Palestinians. President Ebrahim Raisi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf echoed Khamenei’s remarks during their separate meetings with Canel.[59]

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr al Busaidi on December 4 in Tehran to discuss the Israel-Hamas war.[60] The two officials emphasized the need for ending Israeli action in the Gaza Strip. Abdollahian previously discussed the Israel-Hamas war with al Busaidi on December 1.[61]

Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri discussed expanding intelligence cooperation with the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) during a meeting with PMF Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh in Baghdad on December 4.[62] The PMF is an umbrella security organization largely composed of Shia militias.[63] The US Department of the Treasury sanctioned Fayyadh in January 2021 for serious human rights abuses.[64] Greater intelligence cooperation between Iran and the PMF would likely grant Iran increased access to intelligence on US forces on Iraq, which would increase threats to US forces in Iraq. Bagheri and Fayyadh also discussed combatting terrorism and strengthening bilateral security cooperation. Former Kataib Hezbollah Secretary General and PMF Chief of Staff Abdul Aziz al Mohammadawi (also known as Abu Fadak) also attended the meeting. Iranian Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan recently met with Fayyadh in Baghdad on November 13.[65] Bagheri separately met with Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid on December 4.[66]

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Iraqi interim Parliamentary Speaker Mohsen al Mandalawi in Tehran on December 4.[67] Abdollahian called for greater cooperation between Iran and Iraq to facilitate “peace and stability” in the region. Mokhber praised the Iraqi government for approving a law that “criminalizes relations with Israel.”

• Mandalawi is a member of the Shia Coordination Framework—a loosely aligned coalition of pro-Iranian political parties—and was appointed as deputy parliamentary speaker in September 2022.[68] He has been serving as acting parliament speaker since the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court issued a ruling to remove former Parliamentary Speaker Mohammed al Halbousi from parliament on November 14.[69] Mandalawi is a Feyli Shia Kurd from Diyala Province in northeastern Iraq.[70] Mandalawi is a member of the Independent Iraq Alliance, which is headed by Iraqi MP Abdul Hadi al Hasnawi.[71] Mandalawi has previously met with Axis of Resistance officials such as former Kataib Hezbollah Secretary General and PMF Chief of Staff Abdul Aziz al Muhammadawi and Asaib Ahl al Haq Secretary General Qais Khazali.[72]
• Halbousi, an important Sunni politician and the leader of the Taqqadum Movement, claimed that the Federal Supreme Court’s November 14 ruling was unconstitutional and that the ruling was a move by unspecified parties to create political divisions within society.[73] CTP-ISW previously hypothesized that Halbousi was removed from his post as part of political efforts to reduce the US presence in Iraq.[74]

Iran Update, December 3, 2023

click here to read the full report with maps

Brian Carter, Nicholas Carl, Andie Parry, Ashka Jhaveri, and Amin Soltani

Information Cutoff: 5:00 pm EST

Key Takeaways:

1. Hamas has used increasingly sophisticated tactics against Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip since the humanitarian pause ended on December 1.
2. Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to support their objective of expelling US forces from the Middle East.
3. The Houthi movement likely attacked three commercial vessels and possibly a US Navy vessel around the Bab al Mandeb.
4. Israeli forces began ground operations into the southern Gaza Strip. Palestinian militias targeted Israeli forces along Israeli lines of advance in the southern Gaza Strip using direct and indirect fire.
5. The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson posted specific evacuation orders covering areas of Khan Younis.
6. Israel recalled its negotiators from Qatar after reaching a “dead end” in ceasefire talks.
7. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted 21 rocket attacks into Israel.
8. Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces in seven towns across the West Bank.
9. Lebanese Hezbollah claimed seven attacks into northern Israel, targeting Israeli forces, including one attack that wounded 11 Israeli soldiers and civilians.
10. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq resumed its attacks on US forces after the humanitarian pause in the Gaza Strip ended on December 1. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq said that five of its fighters died in battle.
11. The two IRGC general officers killed in Israeli airstrikes in Syria on December 2 were members of the IRGC Quds Force Unit 340, according to Israeli media.

 

Hamas has used increasingly sophisticated tactics against Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip since the humanitarian pause ended on December 1. Hamas and other Palestinian militias have used explosively formed penetrators (EFP) five times since December 1.[1] These attacks mark a noteworthy increase in the use of EFPs in the Israel-Hamas war. Hamas claimed that it used EFPs only twice prior to December 1, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) claimed no EFP attacks prior to December 2.[2] Hamas separately conducted a complex ambush targeting Israeli forces northeast of Khan Younis on December 3 (see below). Hamas also released a video on December 2 showing its force launching three one-way attack drones targeting Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip.[3] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have not confirmed that Hamas is employing these systems or tactics against its forces.

 

CTP-ISW is considering two possible hypotheses to explain this shift in tactics. Neither of these hypotheses are mutually exclusive.

 

1. Hamas and the other Palestinian militias have shifted from conducting a delaying operation to conducting a deliberate defense meant to attrit and degrade the Israeli will to continue the ground operation into the Gaza Strip. CTP-ISW previously assessed on November 14 that Hamas and other Palestinian militias were conducting a delaying operation in the northern Gaza Strip.[4] Hamas likely sought to avoid a decisive defeat by preparing for a ”long war” that Hamas hoped would compel Israel to agree to a permanent ceasefire and thereby preserve Hamas as a governing body and military force.[5] The delaying operation was also likely meant to provide Hamas time to move its leaders and military materiel from the northern Gaza strip to the southern part of the strip. A delaying operation intentionally does not involve committing forces decisively to fighting. The shift in tactics suggests that Hamas and Palestinian militias are preparing to become decisively committed to defending against the Israeli ground operation. Israeli officials emphasized during the humanitarian pause that they would continue pursuing the destruction of Hamas.[6]
2. Hamas and the other Palestinian militias are using new tactics based on lessons learned during the past month of fighting in the Gaza Strip. Israeli forces are not using main roads when advancing, instead opting to create new avenues of movement.[7] Hamas and the other Palestinian militias could have learned how to more effectively counter this Israeli approach, for instance.

 

Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to support their objective of expelling US forces from the Middle East. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has conducted dozens of attacks on US positions in Iraq and Syria since the war began.[8] The group includes several militias that are deeply loyal to Tehran and responsive to its instruction, such as Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has primarily used drones and rockets to conduct these attacks but also used a close-range ballistic missile for the first time against US forces on November 20 as part of a carefully calibrated escalation.[9] These attacks are meant to impose a cost on the United States for supporting Israel and also erode American willingness to remain militarily in Iraq and Syria. Iranian and Axis of Resistance leaders are operating on the theory that relatively low levels of militant pressure gradually diminish the willingness of the US political establishment to sustain deployments in the Middle East.[10] The US withdrawals from Iraq in 2011 and Afghanistan in 2021 reinforced this long-standing expectation. Iran and Iranian-backed Iraqi political factions could furthermore try to exploit US self-defense strikes against Iraqi militia targets to generate domestic political support to expel US forces.

 

Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri implied during meetings in Baghdad on December 3 that Iran could become directly involved in this escalation with the United States to support the effort to expel US forces. Bagheri declared the readiness of the Iranian armed forces to respond to any threats to “the territorial integrity and national sovereignty of Iraq” during a meeting with Iraqi Army Chief of Staff General Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah.[11] Bagheri was referring to the recent US self-defense airstrikes against Iraqi militia targets, which Iraqi central government officials have framed as violations of Iraqi sovereignty and territorial integrity.[12] This threat is particularly noteworthy given that Bagheri is Iran’s most senior military official and responsible, in his capacity as AFGS chief, for military policy and strategic guidance for the Iranian armed forces.[13]

 

Bagheri separately discussed expanding military cooperation between Iran and Iraq with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani, Defense Minister Mohammad Thabit Saeed al Abasi, and Interior Minister Abdul Amir al Shammari.[14] Bagheri specifically proposed establishing a joint Iranian-Iraqi border force, holding joint exercises, and conducting personnel exchanges. Iran could exploit this expanding cooperation to support its long-standing effort to infiltrate and ultimately control elements of the Iraqi security sector.

 

The Houthi movement likely attacked three commercial vessels and possibly a US Navy vessel around the Bab al Mandeb on December 3. Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Sarea said that the group launched anti-ship missiles and naval drones targeting two vessels around the Bab al Mandeb. Sarea claimed that the two vessels had unspecified links to Israel.[15] US CENTCOM later said that the Houthis attacked three ships and engaged a US navy destroyer over several hours.[16] CENTCOM reported that the US destroyer USS Carney intercepted three drones flying toward the ship but that the Carney could not confirm the drone’s target. CENTCOM said that "the United States will consider all appropriate responses in full coordination with its international allies and partners.” Al Arabiya reported that Israel would send naval vessels and a submarine to the Red Sea in response to the Houthi attacks.[17]

 

• The Houthi movement claimed that it fired an anti-ship ballistic missile at the cargo ship Unity Explorer.[18] CENTCOM reported two missiles were fired at the ship and caused minor damage.[19] The ship is Bahamian-flagged and Israeli-owned.[20] The Houthis have targeted Israeli-owned ships in previous attacks in recent weeks, as CTP-ISW has previously reported.[21]
• The Houthi movement claimed that it launched a naval drone at the cargo ship German-owned Number Nine.[22] CENTCOM said that the Houthis fired one missile targeting the ship—not a naval drone.[23]

 

• CENTCOM stated the Panamanian-flagged SOPHIE II reported that it was struck by a missile in a distress call. The Houthi movement did not claim responsibility for the attack, but the Houthis were probably responsible given the location and timing of the attack.
• CENTCOM reported the US destroyer USS Carney shot down three drones coming from the direction of Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen while the Carney responded to the three ships’ distress calls. CENTCOM said that the target of the drones was unclear and that CENTCOM is not able to assess whether the USS Carney was a target.[24] The Houthi movement did not claim that it targeted the USS Carney in its statement on December 3. The USS Carney previously shot down Houthi drones and missiles launched from Yemen on November 29 and October 18.[25]

 

Gaza Strip

 

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

 

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

 

Israeli forces began ground operations into the southern Gaza Strip. IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari stated on December 3 that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) “is resuming and expanding the ground operation against Hamas’ strongholds across the whole Gaza Strip."[26] Israeli Army Radio confirmed on December 3 that IDF ground forces, including armored elements, are attacking Hamas-affiliated targets north of Khan Younis.[27] The IDF Air Force struck Palestinian fighter military headquarters, tunnels, and weapons depots across the Gaza Strip. Israel has identified Khan Younis and Rafah as Hamas strongholds given the presence of Hamas leadership and military infrastructure there.[28] Local Palestinian journalists recorded Israeli tanks operating around Deir al Balah in the central Gaza Strip.[29]

 

Palestinian militias targeted Israeli forces along Israeli lines of advance in the southern Gaza Strip using direct and indirect fire. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed a complex ambush on Israeli forces northeast of Khan Younis on December 3. The militia fighters claimed to detonate a “minefield” near eight Israeli soldiers before firing small arms at them.[30] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed a separate complex attack in the same area using mortars and rocket propelled grenades (RPGs).[31] The al Quds Brigades mortared Israeli forces that were nearing a junction in Deir al Balah where an independent analyst on X (Twitter) geolocated a photo of an Israeli tank.[32]

 

The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson posted specific evacuation orders covering areas of Khan Younis on X (Twitter) at 23:36 EST on December 2 and 09:12 EST on December 3. The orders highlight specific blocks and neighborhoods in al Mahatta, al Katiba, Hamad, al Satar, Bani Suheila, and Maan. The evacuation notices called for civilians to go to “known IDP shelters.”[33] The spokesperson repeated evacuation orders covering areas of the northern Gaza Strip and called for residents to go to Daraj and Tuffah neighborhoods of Gaza city.[34]

 

PIJ fighters claimed to detonate two EFPs targeting Israeli armored vehicles on December 2 and 3. The al Quds Brigades claimed that it detonated an EFP targeting an Israeli tank in al Mughraqa south of Gaza City on December 3.[35] The al Quds Brigades also detonated an EFP targeting an Israeli tank in Sheikh Radwan on December 2.[36] EFPs are particularly lethal improvised explosive devices designed to penetrate armored vehicles, such as main battle tanks.[37]

 

Hamas and other Palestinian militias conducted attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. The al Qassem Brigades and al Quds Brigades claimed separate attacks on Israeli forces and vehicles in Beit Hanoun using RPGs.[38]

 

The al Qassem Brigades claimed to detonate a booby-trapped tunnel opening after luring Israeli forces into the entrance east of the city.[39] The IDF has located over 800 underground Hamas tunnel shafts and destroyed 500 of them since the ground operations began.[40] The al Qassem Brigades claimed three other attacks on Israeli tanks using RPGs around Beit Lahia.[41]

 

Palestinian militias targeted Israeli forces north of Gaza city where Israel has been expanding operations since November 18.[42] The al Qassem Brigades claimed to conduct a complex attack on Israeli forces by detonating a booby-trapped tunnel entrance followed by mortar fire in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood of Gaza city. The al Quds Brigades claimed three attacks on Israeli forces and vehicles in Sheikh Radwan using small arms and RPGs, including tandem-charged RPGs.[43]

 

Israel said it killed Hamas battalion commanders in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli forces conducted airstrikes to kill the commanders of Hamas’ Shati Battalion and Shujaiya Battalion. The commanders led fighting against Israeli forces in their respective areas of operations.[44]  An IDF spokesperson issued a warning to Hamas commanders in Shujaiya that they are targets and that Israel will use extreme force in the neighborhood to dismantle Hamas military infrastructure.[45]

 

Israel recalled its negotiators from Qatar on December 2 after reaching a “dead end” in ceasefire talks.[46] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Hamas did not fulfil its part of the agreement.[47] US National Security spokesperson John Kirby said Hamas failed to provide a list of women and children before the truce broke down.[48] Kirby affirmed that the United States is trying to restart the hostage/prisoner swap.[49]

 

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted 21 rocket attacks into Israel on December 3. The al Qassem Brigades claimed responsibility for seven rocket attacks.[50] The al Quds Brigades claimed responsibility for 13 rocket attacks.[51] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—claimed one rocket attack.[52] The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—published a video compilation of its forces launching rocket salvoes into Israel from the Gaza Strip.[53]

 

West Bank

 

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

 

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

 

Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces in seven towns across the West Bank on December 3.[54]Four of the clashes were complex attacks, as Palestinian fighters detonated IEDs and fired small arms at Israeli forces.[55] Fighters fired small arms at Israeli military checkpoints near West Bank settlements in two instances.[56] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—claimed three of the attacks and said one of its fighters was killed by Israeli forces conducting a raid in Qalaqiya.[57] Israel forces arrested 34 people, including eight Hamas-affiliated individuals, in overnight raids of West Bank towns.[58]

 

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

 

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

 

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

 

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) claimed seven attacks into northern Israel on December 3, targeting Israeli forces, including one attack that wounded 11 Israeli soldiers and civilians.[59] LH claimed that it fired one anti-tank missile targeting an Israeli military base in Beit Hillel.[60] Israeli Army Radio reported that the attack injured eight Israeli soldiers and three civilians.[61] The IDF separately said that unspecified Palestinian fighters fired one anti-tank guided missile targeting Yiftah.[62]

 

The IDF reported that unspecified militants conducted two rocket attacks from the Golan Heights into northern Israel.[63] One rocket landed in an open area near Keshet in the Golan Heights.[64]

 

Iran and Axis of Resistance

 

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

 

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

 

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq resumed its attacks on US forces on December 3 after the humanitarian pause in the Gaza Strip ended on December 1. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for two attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria.[65] The group said that it launched a drone at US forces in Erbil and that it fired a rocket salvo at US forces in Hasakah. These are the first attacks the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed that it conducted since November 23.[66] The group had stated on November 30 that it would escalate against the United States inside and outside Iraq if Israel resumes operations in the Gaza Strip, which Israel did after the humanitarian pause expired.[67]

 

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq said that five of its fighters died in battle on December 3. The statement did not specify a cause or location nor did it blame any actor.[68]An Iraqi social media source claimed that five militants from Iranian-backed militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba (HHN) died as they attempted to conduct a one-way drone attack on US forces in Kirkuk.[69] The drone exploded prior to its launch, according to the social media account. The source also claimed that HHN fighters participated in drone attack claimed by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq on US forces at al Harir airbase several hours beforehand.[70] An unspecified US military official contrastingly told the Time of Israel said the US conducted a “self-defense strike” at a staging site for a drone attack near Kirkuk.[71]  Other sources, citing Iraqi security officials, attributed the explosion to a US airstrike on a militia position as Iranian-backed militants prepared to launch projectiles at US forces.[72] An Iranian-backed militia Telegram channel mourned “a group of Islamic Resistance in Iraq fighters” and claimed that they died from an US airstrike.[73] CENTCOM has not commented on the explosion. CTP-ISW cannot corroborate or verify these reports at this time.

 

The two IRGC general officers killed in Israeli airstrikes in Syria on December 2 were members of the IRGC Quds Force Unit 340, according to Israeli media.[74] Israel conducted airstrikes around southern Syria, including near Sayyidah Zeynab, where the IRGC has high-level headquarters, on December 2, as CTP-ISW previously reported. Unit 340 is responsible for providing technical military support and training to members of the Axis of Resistance.[75] The IRGC announced that Israel killed these general officers in Syria, creating the expectation within the Iranian domestic information space that Iran will retaliate.[76]

 

The Iranian armed forces conducted a threatening drone flight near US aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Persian Gulf on December 2.[77] US Central Command reported that the Eisenhower Carrier Air Wing intercepted the Iranian drone during aircraft carrier flight operations, marking the second such instance in recent days. The Iranian armed forces conducted a similarly threatening drone flight near the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower on November 28, as CTP-ISW reported.[78] IRGC Navy Commander Rear Admiral Ali Reza Tangsiri called on the US Navy to “behave rationally” in the Persian Gulf in an interview with Iranian state television on November 26.[79]

 

Iran is continuing to pressure the United States and Israel into establishing a permanent ceasefire by warning that failing to do so will precipitate an escalation of the war. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned of the possibility of the “deep” expansion of the conflict if Israel continues its military operations in the Gaza Strip during a phone call with EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell on December 3.[80] This statement is consistent with previous Iranian rhetoric surrounding the Israel-Hamas war, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[81]

 

President Ebrahim Raisi discussed the Israel-Hamas war during a phone call with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on December 2.[82] Raisi condemned Israeli action in the Gaza Strip and criticized the international community’s inaction in halting Israeli “crimes.”

 

Iran Update: December 2, 2023

Click here to read the full report with maps

Brian Carter, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

Key Takeaways:

1. The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson released on X (Twitter) specific evacuation orders covering Jabalia, Gaza city, and eastern Rafah and Khan Younis governorates.
2. Hamas Political Bureau Deputy Chairman Saleh al Arouri said that Hamas would not agree to further hostage-for-prisoner exchanges until the end of Israel’s ground operation and a “comprehensive ceasefire” in the Gaza Strip.
3. Palestinian fighters continued to resist Israeli forces’ eastward advance toward Jabalia. Hamas fighters detonated an explosively formed penetrator targeting an Israeli vehicle for the second consecutive day.
4. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted 25 rocket and mortar attacks into Israel.
5. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in five towns across the West Bank. This count is half the weekly average.
6. Lebanese Hezbollah claimed 12 attacks into northern Israel, primarily on Israeli military targets.
7. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps announced that Israel killed two of its general officers in Syria.
8. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri traveled to Baghdad.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson released on X (Twitter) at 0222 ET on December 2 specific evacuation orders covering Jabalia, Gaza city, and eastern Rafah and Khan Younis governorates.[1] The orders highlight specific blocks and neighborhoods in these areas. The evacuation notices called for civilians to go to “known shelters.”

Hamas Political Bureau Deputy Chairman Saleh al Arouri said that Hamas would not agree to further hostage-for-prisoner exchanges until the end of Israel’s ground operation and a “comprehensive ceasefire” in the Gaza Strip.[2] Arouri said that there are no ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas regarding the truce.

Palestinian fighters continued to resist Israeli forces’ eastward advance toward Jabalia. The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—said that its fighters engaged IDF elements advancing through Sheikh Radwan neighborhood.[3] Palestinian media reported engagements between Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters along al Ayoun Street in Sheikh Radwan.[4]

Hamas fighters detonated an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) targeting an Israeli vehicle for the second consecutive day on December 2. Hamas claimed attacks in the Gaza Strip using EFPs on October 31, November 17, and December 1.[5] Explosively formed penetrators are particularly lethal improvised explosive devices designed to penetrate armored vehicles, such as main battle tanks.[6]

Hamas also claimed that it launched three one-way attack drones targeting Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip.[7] Hamas released a video showing its fighters launching the drones, but the video did not show the drones’ impacts or targets.

The IDF released a video showing a significant Palestinian fighter weapons cache in the northern Gaza Strip on December 2.[8] The IDF showed UNRWA boxes among the weapons and other military materiel in the cache. The cache featured a significant number of 122mm Grad rockets.

Palestinian fighters continued targeting Israeli forces behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas' militant wing—claimed that it targeted an Israeli command and control position east of Beit Hanoun on December 2.[9] The al Qassem Brigades also released a video on December 2 showing its fighters targeting Israeli forces in Beit Hanoun with rocket propelled grenades and improvised explosive devices.[10] The group also fired a rocket propelled grenade targeting an Israeli bulldozer near Juhor ad Dik.[11]

Al Qassem Brigades fighters conducted a complex attack targeting an Israeli outpost in al Tawam, northwestern Gaza Strip, on December 2.[12] The al Qassem Brigades said that it detonated anti-personnel improvised explosive devices and heavy machine guns targeting an Israeli infantry unit “stationed” in a building.

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted 25 rocket and mortar attacks into Israel on December 2. The al Qassem Brigades claimed responsibility for seven rocket attacks.[13] The al Quds Brigades claimed responsibility for 12 rocket attacks, including one rocket attack targeting Jerusalem and another rocket attack targeting Tel Aviv.[14] The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—conducted one mortar attack targeting Sufa, southern Israel.[15] The Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—conducted five rocket attacks targeting southern Israel.[16]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in five towns across the West Bank on December 2.[17] This count is half the weekly average. The IDF reported that unidentified militants fired small arms and detonated IEDs targeting Israeli forces during an Israeli raid in Nablus overnight on December 1.[18] Palestinian media posted footage that it claimed showed fighters detonating IEDs targeting Israeli forces in Askar refugee camp, Nablus, during the Israeli operation.[19] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify this footage. Local outlets claimed that Palestinian fighters detonated IEDs targeting Israeli forces in al Yamoun, northwest of Jenin.[20] A Jenin-focused outlet separately claimed that Palestinian fighters damaged an Israeli military vehicle in Jalbun, east of Jenin, but the outlet did not provide any visual evidence.[21]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) claimed 12 attacks into northern Israel on December 2, primarily on Israeli military targets.[22] This rate of LH attacks into northern Israel is consistent with the rate of attacks recorded before the humanitarian pause in the Gaza Strip began on November 24. The IDF separately reported that unidentified fighters in southern Lebanon launched mortars toward northern Israel.[23] Israeli Army Radio also reported that unidentified fighters fired an anti-tank missile targeting Moshav Dov. The missile hit a civilian building in the town.[24]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) announced on December 2 that Israel killed two of its general officers in Syria.[25] IRGC-affiliated media published images of the two in their military uniforms with insignias matching the rank of brigadier general second class.[26] The Iranian regime explicitly blaming Israel for killing the two officers generates the expectation within the Iranian domestic information space that Iran will retaliate. The announcement comes after social media accounts reported that the IDF Air Force conducted airstrikes on IRGC targets in southern Syria, including the IRGC headquarters near Sayyida Zainab, on December 2.[27]

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed Iranian-backed threats to US forces in Iraq during a phone call with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani on December 1.[28] Blinken called on the Iraqi central government to protect US personnel in Iraq and to pursue the perpetrators of recent attacks against US forces. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed 74 attacks on US positions in Iraq and Syria since the Israel-Hamas war began. The group threatened on November 30 to escalate against the United States inside and outside Iraq if Israel resumes operations in the Gaza Strip, which Israel did after the humanitarian pause ended on December 1.[29] Sudani emphasized the Iraqi central government’s commitment to protecting international coalition advisers stationed in Iraq.[30] Iranian state media highlighted Sudani’s condemnation of the November 22 US airstrikes on Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah sites in Jurf al Sakhr, Babil Province, which he described as a “violation of Iraqi sovereignty.”[31]

Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri traveled to Baghdad on December 2.[32] Bagheri will meet with senior Iraqi military and political officials, including Sudani and President Abdul Latif Rashid, during his visit.[33] Iranian state media reported that Bagheri will discuss “fighting terrorism, developments in the region, bilateral defense cooperation, and border cooperation” with these officials. Bagheri is Iran’s most senior military official. He oversees the AFGS, which is responsible for military policy and strategic guidance, among other duties, for the Iranian armed forces.[34] The AFGS, along with the Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters, additionally commands, controls, coordinates, and supports Iran’s conventional army, the IRGC, and the Law Enforcement Command under the supreme leader.[35]

Bagheri’s visit to Baghdad notably follows Sudani’s phone call with Blinken. The Iraqi central government has previously coordinated with the Iranian regime following meetings with US officials. Sudani recently met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran on November 6 after meeting with Blinken in Baghdad on November 5, for example.[36] Bagheri’s visit is also noteworthy given how rarely he travels abroad.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian held a phone call with his Omani counterpart Badr al Busaidi on December 1.[37] Abdollahian stated that Axis of Resistance leaders told him that they will give a “more regrettable and harsher” response to Israel if it resumes operations in the Gaza Strip during his visit to Beirut on November 22. Abdollahian met with the deputy chairman of Hamas’ Political Bureau in the Gaza Strip, Khalil al Haya, PIJ Secretary General Ziyad al Nakhalah, and LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah during his visit to Beirut.[38]

Artesh Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Erani announced that Iran, China, and Russia will hold a naval exercise during the 2024 Maritime Security Belt naval war game.[39] The three countries last held a naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman in March 2023 as part of the trilateral Maritime Security Belt they established in 2019.[40]

Iran Update: December 1, 2023

Click here to read the full report with maps

Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Angelica Evans, Peter Mills, Annika Ganzeveld, Kathryn Tyson, Andie Parry, Amin Soltani, and Fredrick W. Kaga

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

Contributor: Sydney White 

Key Takeaways: 

• Fighting resumed in the Gaza Strip after negotiations between Israel and Hamas broke down. Palestinian militias targeted Israeli forces along Israeli lines of advance north and south of Gaza city. Palestinian militias resumed indirect fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel after the truce ended. 

• The IDF published a map dividing the entire Gaza Strip into blocks to facilitate civilian evacuations.  

• The Israel government reportedly informed Arab states that it wants to establish a buffer zone in a post-war Gaza Strip. 

• Palestinian fighters conducted seven attacks targeting Israeli forces in the West Bank. Hamas called for anti-Israel demonstrations across the West Bank. 

• Lebanese Hezbollah conducted five attacks into northern Israel.  
• An Iraqi social media account reported that the 30th Brigade of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces blocked a convoy of Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service and US forces in Iraq. 

Gaza Strip 

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:  

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip 
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip. 

Fighting resumed in the Gaza Strip after negotiations between Israel and Hamas broke down. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported one hour before the truce was set to end that it intercepted an aerial object fired from the Gaza Strip into Israel.[1] The IDF stated that Hamas violated the agreement and renewed military operations in the Gaza Strip.[2] Hamas stated that Israel is responsible for the reignition of hostilities and blamed Israel for rejecting multiple offers to amend the swap of hostages in the Gaza Strip for Israeli-held prisoners.[3] Hamas Political Bureau member and representative of Gaza city Khalil al Hayya said on December 1 that Hamas will resume hostilities.[4] The Israeli Air Force and various combat elements attacked over 200 militant targets in the Gaza Strip, including in Khan Younis and Rafah.[5] Ground forces directed airstrikes and cleared destroyed areas booby-trapped with IEDs, tunnel shafts, rocket launching positions, and a Hamas military headquarters.[6] The IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said the war is entering a second phase.[7] Several Palestinian militias claimed to clash with Israeli forces across the northern Gaza Strip, the area that Israel has declared a ”war zone.”[8]

• The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed several attacks on Israeli forces using indirect fire, tandem charge anti-tank rockets, and anti-personnel munitions.[9] The al Qassem Brigades also claimed to use a Shawaz explosively formed penetrators (EFP) to target an IDF tank.[10] Hamas has manufactured and used EPFs in the Gaza Strip since 2007.[11] The IDF seized Shawaz EFPs during a raid on November 16.[12]
• The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed several attacks on Israeli forces north and south of Gaza city.[13] The al Quds Brigades shot down an Israeli Skylark drone in the central area of the Gaza Strip.[14]
• Other Palestinian militias also resumed attacks on Israeli forces. The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—sniped an Israeli soldier north of the Martyr’s junction in Gaza city and mortared groups of Israeli soldiers west of Gaza city.[15] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—clashed with Israeli forces in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood.[16]

Palestinian militias targeted Israeli forces along Israeli lines of advance north and south of Gaza city. The IDF stated that its forces were engaged in battles against militants to defeat the Hamas Zaytoun Battalion, operating in the Zaytoun neighborhood prior to the truce.[17] The al Quds Brigades mortared Israeli soldiers stationed near the Netzarim junction on the Salah al Din Road south of Zaytoun neighborhood.[18] Axis of Resistance-affiliated media said unspecified Palestinian fighters ambushed Israeli forces in the Tal al Hawa neighborhood west of Zaytoun.[19] The IDF stated on November 18 that it is expanding offensive operations toward Jabalia city in the northern Gaza Strip.[20] Local Palestinian media said that Palestinian fighters and Israeli forces engaged in fierce clashes southwest of Jabalia.[21]

Palestinian militias resumed indirect fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel after the truce ended. The al Qassem Brigades fired nine rocket salvoes into Israel, including at Tel Aviv.[22] The Times of Israel reported that Hamas expanded the range of its rocket fire as sirens went off in several cities of central Israel.[23] The al Quds Brigades fired five rocket salvoes at targets in southern Israel, including Nir Am, where Israeli Army Radio reported five Israeli injuries.[24] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—fired two rocket salvoes into southern Israel in response to Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip.[25] The National Resistance Brigades fired rockets at unspecified Israeli towns bordering the Gaza Strip.[26]

The IDF published a map dividing the entire Gaza Strip into blocks to facilitate civilian evacuations. The IDF said the map is in preparation for the next stages of the war and is designed to allow residents of the Gaza Strip to understand instructions to leave certain areas.[27] Senior Adviser to the Israeli Prime Minister Mark Regev told BBC that Israel shared its plans with US Secretary Blinken to show the United States that Israel is making “every effort to see civilians safely evacuate areas of combat.”[28] The AP reported on December 1 that the IDF dropped leaflets over an area east of Khan Younis urging residents to leave for their safety and declaring the Khan Younis a “dangerous battle zone.”[29] The IDF did not confirm that it advised people to leave, as it has done in the past, however.[30]

The Israel government reportedly informed Arab states that it wants to establish a buffer zone in a post-war Gaza Strip. Egyptian and regional sources told Reuters that Israel relayed its plans to Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.[31] One of the sources said that Israel wants to prevent any future infiltration attack by Hamas or other militia infiltration attack.[32] An Israeli Prime Minister foreign policy adviser said the buffer zone plan is part of a "three-tier process" that includes destroying Hamas, demilitarizing Gaza, and deradicalizing the enclave.[33]

PIJ Deputy Secretary General Muhammad al Hindi told Al Jazeera about PIJ’s coordination with Hamas on the battlefield and during the humanitarian pause.[34] Al Hindi said that PIJ played an important role “behind Hamas” in imposing truces and completing the hostage/prisoner swap with Israel.[35] CTP-ISW previously reported on November 28 that PIJ fighters accompanied hostages through the Gaza Strip as they were released.[36] Al Hindi also said the Hamas and PIJ militant wings are coordinating in the field and working together.[37] The al Quds Brigades and the al Qassem Brigades have claimed joint operations during the Israel-Hamas War.[38] Al Hindi has previously commented on growing coordination with Hamas. He publicly claimed that there was consensus between PIJ and Hamas in confronting Israel in May 2023 and said PIJ enters battles with Hamas ”side by side” in August 2022.[39] Al Hindi was elected to the PIJ political bureau in March 2023 and subsequently reportedly became the Political Bureau’s head.[40]

Anonymous Israeli officials told the Wall Street Journal that Israel plans to target Hamas leaders abroad after the war ends.[41] The report claims Israel has already started the preparation for targeted killings abroad. Several members of Hamas’ leadership live in Lebanon, Qatar, and Turkey.[42]

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that a second group of Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip arrived in Chechnya on December 1, possibly partially funded by his daughter’s ”Children of Chechnya - Children of Palestine” organization. (NOTE: This text also appeared in the Institute for the Study of War’s December 1 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment) Kadyrov published footage claiming to show 116 Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip, including 60 children, arriving in Chechnya and claimed that it is Chechnya’s ”moral duty” to help the civilians of the Gaza Strip.[43] Kadyrov claimed that his daughter and head of the Grozny City Hall Preschool Education Department, Khadizhat Kadyrova, provided the children gifts through the ”Children of Chechnya - Children of Palestine” organization. Kadyrov announced Kadyrova‘s patronage of the organization in a Telegram post on November 11, encouraging his followers to purchase crafts made by Chechen preschoolers to fund humanitarian aid for Palestinian Muslims.[44] Regional outlet Caucasian Knot reported on November 15 that the organization raised more than 68 million rubles to purchase aid for Palestinians.[45] Caucasian Knot reported on November 16, citing unnamed Chechen government officials, that Kadyrov pressured Chechen officials to spend up to a third of their monthly salaries buying crafts from the ”Children of Chechnya - Children of Palestine” organization.[46] Chechnya’s Ministry of Labor, Employment, and Development stated on November 18 that fundraisers for the organization are taking place ”in all corners” of Chechnya.[47] ISW cannot independently verify this footage or any of Kadyrov’s claims, however. But if true, Kadyrov may be using the funds from this organization to at least partially finance the relocation of Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip, an effort that could help Kadyrov in his quest to balance his desire to curry favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin with the need to appeal to his own Chechen constituency.[48] Kadyrov posted footage on November 29 purportedly showing an initial group of 50 Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip arriving in Chechnya.[49] Kadyrov’s claims and the alleged work of the ”Children of Chechnya-Children of Palestine” organization reflect the Kremlin’s shift to a much more anti-Israel positions in the Israel-Hamas war.[50]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Palestinian fighters conducted seven attacks targeting Israeli forces in the West Bank on December 1. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—engaged Israeli forces in a small arms clash near Nablus and detonated an IED targeting Israeli forces near Jenin.[51] Unspecified Palestinian fighters conducted three small arms attacks against Israeli forces across the West Bank and detonated two IEDs targeting Israeli forces near Jenin.[52] The IDF reported that it detained 15 wanted persons and seized weapons, explosives, and unspecified military equipment across the West Bank.[53] 

Hamas called for anti-Israel demonstrations across the West Bank. Hamas branches in Ramallah, Bethlehem, Tulkarm, Jenin, Hebron, Qalqilya called for protests on December 1 against the resumption of Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip.[54] CTP-ISW did not observe any demonstrations in the West Bank on December 1, however.

A Palestinian think tank reported survey results showing that Palestinian support for Hamas and the formation of armed groups in the West Bank has increased due to the Israel-Hamas prisoner/hostage exchange deal and increasing Israeli settler attacks on Palestinian civilians. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research reported that support for Hamas in the West Bank has increased from 12 percent in September to 40 percent in November.[55] The director of the center reported that the recent hostage/prisoner release deal between Hamas and Israel was the most important factor increasing support for Hamas. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research reported in November that nearly half of Palestinians in the West Bank support the formation of armed groups in response to attacks by Israeli settlers, which it said have increased 40 percent from 2022 to 2023.[56] US Secretary of State Blinken notified Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that the United States will begin announcing visa bans against Israeli settlers involved in attacks on Palestinian civilians.[57]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) conducted five attacks into northern Israel on December 1.[58] LH fired rockets at four Israeli military sites, hitting the al Marj site twice.[59] The IDF said that it intercepted a ”suspicious“ aerial target near HaGorshrim on December 1, although no militant group claimed responsibility for an attempted attack.[60] This is the first day that LH has conducted indirect fire attacks into Israel since November 23.[61] The IDF said that it conducted strikes on LH squads and positions in southern Lebanon.[62]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

An Iraqi social media account reported that the 30th Brigade of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) blocked a convoy of Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) and US forces in Iraq on December 1.[63] A video from the account shows PMF vehicles blocking a road and preventing military vehicles from passing. An Axis of Resistance-affiliated Telegram channel claimed that the road blocking occurred near Nimrud in northwestern Iraq.[64] The PMF and Iraqi Army conducted a "joint security operation" in Ninewa Province on December 1, but it is unclear if the 30th Brigade participated.[65] The PMF is a state-affiliated umbrella organization of Iraqi militias that ostensibly report to the Iraqi prime minister but frequently subvert the official chain of command to report to their affiliated Iranian-backed proxies.[66] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify Iraqi media’s claim.

The 30th Brigade operates in Ninewa Province in northern Iraq and has strong ties to members of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—including Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, and the Badr Organization.[67] The 30th PMF Brigade, also known as Hashd al Shabak, formed in 2014 under Waad Qado and is primarily made up of the Shabak ethnic group and Shia Turkmen.[68] The United States and locals from the Ninewa Plains have accused the 30th Brigade and Waad Qado of human rights violations, including extortion, illegal arrests, and kidnappings.[69] US-based al Monitor reported that the 30th Brigade has also been accused of targeting minority groups in the Ninewa Plains.[70] The 30th Brigade has previously harassed US forces in northern Iraq.[71]  The brigade has resisted orders from former Iraqi prime ministers to withdraw unauthorized checkpoints from Ninewa on multiple occasions.[72]

The 30th Brigade’s decision to block US and CTS forces comes shortly after Najm al Jubouri submitted his resignation as the governor of Ninewa on November 26.[73] The Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) barred al Jubouri from running in the 2023 provincial elections based on corruption charges brought against him by the Accountability and Justice Commission.[74] The Shia Coordination Framework spearheaded a series of amendments to Iraq’s election laws in March 2023, one of which barred individuals charged with corruption from participating in elections.[75] Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani appointed PMF-affiliated Abdul Qadir al Dakhil as the acting governor of Ninewa on November 27.[76] Dakhil served as the head of the Supreme Committee for the Reconstruction of Mosul under al Jubouri but has been supported by the PMF and was seen being escorted in Ninewa Province after being appointed acting governor by Kataib Hezbollah members, according to locals.[77]

Senior Iranian clerics met with Iraqi PMF Doctrinal Guidance Director Mohammad al Heydari in Qom on December 1.[78] Prominent Iranian Shia cleric Hossein Nouri Hamedani praised the PMF and condemned Israeli conduct in the Gaza Strip during his meeting with Heydari. IRGC Quds Force officials have previously consulted Hamedani on Quds Force and Axis of Resistance activities, as CTP-ISW reported.[79] Iranian Assembly of Experts member and Interim Qom Friday Prayer Leader Hashem Hosseini Bushehri separately praised the united front between Iran and the PMF against enemy conspiracies during his meeting with Heydari.

IRGC Navy Commander Rear Admiral Ali Reza Tangsiri met with Omani Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Brigadier General Hamid bin Abdullah al Balushi in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province, on December 1.[80] Tangsiri repeated long-standing Iranian regime rhetoric that regional countries must ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz and that Western countries are present in the Persian Gulf to sow discord among Muslim countries. The Artesh and IRGC navies conducted a joint naval exercise with the Royal Navy of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman on November 30.[81] Al Balushi also met with Law Enforcement Command Border Guard Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Ali Goudarzi in Tehran on November 29.[82]